Final preview from the Charlottesville Challenger (indoor hard), with form, serve and return numbers and a full Tale of the Tape for every match. Times are as listed by the tournament schedule and may move with the order of play.
Stefan Kozlov vs Aidan Mayo
🧠 Form & Context
Stefan Kozlov
- 📊 Ranked No. 271 at 28, 5–5 in his last 10 and winning 42% of recent matches. Beat Shick and the heavy favourite Chidekh on the way to the final.
- 🔁 The better returner: 34.3% against the first serve and 53.0% against the second, and 42% of career return points.
- 🎯 Converts 42.2% of break points (44% recently).
- 🤝 Leads the head-to-head 3–0 and won both meetings this year, at Newport in July and Brownsburg in August, each in three sets.
- ⚠️ Weaker behind the serve: 66.3% on the first, 48.4% on the second and 57.5% of break points saved. Has won 47% of career tiebreaks.
Aidan Mayo
- 🔥 Ranked No. 285 at 23, 8–2 in his last 10 and winning 57% of recent matches. Beat Rehberg and Andrade on the way to the final.
- 🚀 Big first serve: 70.7% of points won, and 77% in recent matches.
- 🔒 Saves 60.3% of break points (65% recently).
- 🏆 Has won 52% of career tiebreaks and 86% of matches after taking the first set.
- ⚠️ Lands only 57.1% of first serves and converts 39.7% of break points (34% recently). Has won 36% of deciding sets this season.
🔍 Match Breakdown
Their fourth meeting. Kozlov leads 3–0 and won both of this year's meetings in three sets, on grass at Newport in July and on a hard court in Brownsburg in August. Mayo is the 1.50 favourite all the same.
Mayo is the much stronger server: 70.7% behind the first serve to 66.3%, 50.7% behind the second to 48.4%, and 60.3% of break points saved to 57.5%. Kozlov lands more first serves (61.0% vs 57.1%).
Kozlov is the better returner: 34.3% against the first serve to 31.4%, and 53.0% against the second to 50.9%. He also converts more break points (42.2% vs 39.7%, and 44% vs 34% in recent matches).
The form is with Mayo: 8–2 in his last 10 against 5–5, and 57% of recent matches won against 42%. Kozlov has the far better record in deciding sets (60% vs 47% career, 50% vs 36% this season).
Mayo's serve and form explain the price, but the head-to-head and Kozlov's record in deciding sets point to a close final.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Kozlov | Mayo |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 271 | 285 |
| Age | 28 | 23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Head-to-head | 3 | 0 |
| First serves in | 61.0% | 57.1% |
| 1st-serve points won | 66.3% | 70.7% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 48.4% | 50.7% |
| Break points saved | 57.5% | 60.3% |
| Break points converted | 42.2% | 39.7% |
| Return points won (career) | 42% | 39% |
| Tiebreak win % | 47% | 52% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 60% | 47% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 57% | 53% |
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