ATP Masters 1000 · Rolex Paris Masters · Final · Sun 8 Nov · 15:00 CET (17:00 TR)
Shelton vs Alcaraz: a US Open rematch under the Paris lights
Two months after Ben Shelton beat Carlos Alcaraz in five sets at Flushing Meadows, the pair meet again with a Masters 1000 title on the line. This time the bookmakers have no doubts: Alcaraz is 1.27 and Shelton 4.09 at Pinnacle, which makes the Spaniard roughly a 76% favourite once the margin is removed. The two reached this final in very different ways.
Form & Context
Ben Shelton has done it the hard way. Wins over Rinderknech, Paul and Van Assche all went to a deciding set, three in a row, and that is four matches in five days. On Saturday he came from a set down to beat Van Assche 5-7 6-3 6-4. Indoors he has been excellent, winning 9 of his last 10, and his serve is holding close to 90% of the time. He also knows how to come back: in 2026 he has won 11 of the 18 best-of-three matches in which he lost the opening set.
Carlos Alcaraz has barely been troubled. He beat Michelsen and Ruud in straight sets, with only Taylor Fritz taking him the distance. Ruud went down 6-4 6-4 in the semi-final. He is unbeaten indoors in 2026 (8-0) and 44-6 over the past 52 weeks. One number stands out: this season, in 24 best-of-three matches where he won the first set, he has never lost.
Tale of the Tape
| Shelton | Alcaraz | |
|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle odds | 4.09 | 1.27 |
| Form score (0–100) | 76.6 | 93.0 |
| Last 10 indoor | 9-1 | 8-0 (all of 2026) |
| 52-week record | 45-21 | 44-6 |
| Road to the final | 3 straight three-setters | 2 of 3 in straight sets |
| Bo3 matches to a decider (2026) | 28 of 46 | 7 of 32 |
| Comeback rate (lost S1 → won) | 61.1% | 50.0% |
| Collapse rate (won S1 → lost) | 17.9% | 0.0% |
| Last meeting | Shelton won in five sets – US Open, 8 Sep 2026 | |
The storylines
Can Shelton's serve and his knack for late comebacks overcome four tough matches in five days? Or does a fresh Alcaraz, unbeaten indoors all year, take his revenge for New York? The numbers above point in very different directions depending on who wins the first set. That makes the opening set the moment to watch.
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