PBTennis · Tennis Form Snapshot · Day 172
Sunday Form Radar: finals day, and a 27-point gap
Alcaraz vs Shelton closes Paris, and eight finals are on today's board. The biggest wrong-side gap is 27 points, with the better-form player at 2.75.
71 open matches | 8 finals | 6 wrong-side alerts | 3/5 form-backed favs held yesterday |
Yesterday's board, checked
Every signal is checked against the next day's draw.
Form-backed favourites went 3 of 5, including the Paris semifinal. The equal-odds form leader won, and a 25-point wrong-side alert held at 2.50.
The hard part: the market won the wrong-side battle 6 of 7. Five of the six Stockholm favourites with weaker 52-week records got through.
| D171 signal | Held |
|---|---|
| Form-backed favourites | 3 / 5 |
| Wrong-side alerts | 1 / 7 |
| Sub-threshold underdogs | 1 / 3 |
| Equal odds, form leader | 1 / 1 |
| Late level form (D170) | 1 / 1 |
Finals day: one form read open
The prices are public. Our 52-week form read on each match is on the members' board.
| Match | Odds | Form read |
|---|---|---|
| Paris final · Alcaraz vs Shelton | 1.33 / 3.40 | Form agrees with the market |
| WTA Finals · Rybakina vs Noskova | 1.47 / 2.65 | 🔒 members |
| Hong Kong final · Eala vs Liu | 1.50 / 2.60 | 🔒 members |
| Bratislava final · Kym vs Rodionov | 1.53 / 2.38 | 🔒 members |
| Luanda final · Blinkova vs Lansere | 1.22 / 4.00 | 🔒 members |
| Villa Maria final · La Serna vs Olivieri | 1.73 / 2.00 | 🔒 members |
| Stockholm · Cerundolo vs Ymer | 1.17 / 5.00 | 🔒 members |
In one of these six locked matches the underdog is slightly ahead on form, and another is priced near-even despite a 15-point form gap.
Today's 6 wrong-side alerts
In each of these, the market's favourite is the player in worse form.
| Event | Match | Gap |
|---|---|---|
| Stockholm ATP | 🔒 █████ vs █████ | 27 |
| Matsuyama Challenger (Q) | 🔒 █████ vs █████ | 17 |
| Stockholm ATP | 🔒 █████ vs █████ | 15 |
| Brisbane Challenger (Q) | 🔒 █████ vs █████ | 15 |
| Taipei Challenger final | 🔒 █████ vs █████ | 13 |
| + 1 more alert on the members' board | ||
One favourite to watch in a WTA final. She has been the lower-rated favourite four matches in a row and won the first three. Today the gap is 10 points and her price is 1.42. In Stockholm, yesterday's 25-point alert held, and the same player is the better-form underdog again, now by 27 points.
42 boards in
| Signal (D130–D171) | Resolved | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Form-backed favourites (favourite wins) | 684 | 73% |
| Level form at short prices (favourite wins) | 250 | 73% |
| Sub-threshold underdogs (underdog advances) | 310 | 40% |
| Wrong-side alerts (underdog advances) | 409 | 37% |
Outcomes come from draw progression. These are small samples and not a betting performance record.
Unlock the full Day 172 board
All 71 matches with form tiers, all 6 wrong-side alerts named, the crisis watch, form arcs, and the full Excel and DOCX snapshot.
Open on Patreon →Match-by-match analysis, model review and filtered selections are in the Elite membership.
#Tennis #TennisBetting #ATP #WTA #ATPChallenger #WTA125 #TennisForm #RolexParisMasters #ParisMasters #WTAFinals #StockholmOpen #HongKongOpen #Alcaraz #Shelton #Rybakina #PBTennis
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