Quarterfinal previews from the Lima 3 Challenger (clay), with form, serve and return numbers and a full Tale of the Tape for every open match. Matches marked 🔒 are on today's PBTennis Patreon card. Times are as listed by the tournament schedule and may move with the order of play.
Alan Magadan vs Franco Roncadelli
🧠 Form & Context
Alan Magadan
- 📈 Ranked No. 491 at 25, 6–4 in his last 10 and winning 60% of recent matches. Beat Barrena in round two.
- 🚀 The much stronger server: 69.1% on the first serve and 49.8% on the second.
- 🔒 Saves 56.9% of break points (60% recently).
- 🎲 Has won 62% of his tiebreaks.
- ⚠️ Lands only 57.6% of first serves and has won 39% of career deciding sets. His sample at this level is small.
Franco Roncadelli
- 📊 Ranked No. 258 at 26, a left-hander, 7–3 in his last 10 and winning 50% of recent matches. Beat Comesana in round two.
- 🎯 Lands a remarkable 74.3% of first serves.
- 🔁 The much better returner: 39.6% against the first serve and 55.3% against the second, with 48.8% of break points converted.
- 🏆 Has won 70% of deciding sets this season and 91% of matches after taking the first set.
- ⚠️ Wins only 59.3% behind the first serve and 47.6% behind the second.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting in the quarterfinals. Roncadelli is the 1.33 favourite and is ranked 233 places higher.
Magadan is much the stronger server: 69.1% behind the first serve to 59.3%, 49.8% behind the second to 47.6%, and 56.9% of break points saved to 54.4%. Roncadelli lands far more first serves (74.3% vs 57.6%).
Roncadelli is much the better returner: 39.6% against the first serve to 32.6%, 55.3% against the second to 50.0%, and 48.8% of break points converted to 40.0%.
Roncadelli is 7–3 in his last 10 against 6–4, while Magadan has won more of his recent matches (60% vs 50%). Roncadelli has the much better career record in deciding sets (58% vs 39%).
Serve against return on clay, where the return usually matters more. That is why Roncadelli is favourite.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Magadan | Roncadelli |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 491 | 258 |
| Age | 25 | 26 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 57.6% | 74.3% |
| 1st-serve points won | 69.1% | 59.3% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 49.8% | 47.6% |
| Break points saved | 56.9% | 54.4% |
| Break points converted | 40.0% | 48.8% |
| Return points won (career) | 39% | 46% |
| Tiebreak win % | 62% | 48% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 39% | 58% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 52% | 57% |
Tristan Boyer vs Max Alcala Gurri
🧠 Form & Context
Tristan Boyer
- 📊 Ranked No. 208 at 25, 5–5 in his last 10 and winning 58% of recent matches. Beat Tabata in round two.
- 🚀 The stronger server: 67.2% on the first serve and 51.0% on the second.
- 🔒 Saves 58.7% of break points (61% recently).
- 🎲 Has won 52% of his tiebreaks.
- ⚠️ A weaker returner: 32.4% against the first serve and 40.6% of break points converted.
Max Alcala Gurri
- 🔥 Ranked No. 131 at 24, 7–3 in his last 10 and winning 73% of recent matches. Beat De La Fuente in round two.
- 🔁 A very strong returner: 40.6% against the first serve and 57.5% against the second, with 48.6% of break points converted.
- 🎯 Lands 71.2% of first serves.
- 🏆 Has won 58% of deciding sets this season and 62% of best-of-three matches.
- ⚠️ Weak behind the second serve: 44.4% of points won.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting in the quarterfinals. Alcala Gurri is the 1.72 favourite and is ranked 77 places higher.
Boyer is clearly the stronger server: 67.2% behind the first serve to 61.4%, 51.0% behind the second to 44.4%, and 58.7% of break points saved to 53.8%. Alcala Gurri lands more first serves (71.2% vs 63.5%).
Alcala Gurri is much the better returner: 40.6% against the first serve to 32.4%, 57.5% against the second to 50.4%, and 48.6% of break points converted to 40.6%.
The form is with Alcala Gurri: 7–3 in his last 10 against 5–5, and 73% of recent matches won against 58%.
Another serve-against-return contest on clay. Alcala Gurri's return game and form explain the price.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Boyer | Alcala Gurri |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 208 | 131 |
| Age | 25 | 24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 63.5% | 71.2% |
| 1st-serve points won | 67.2% | 61.4% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 51.0% | 44.4% |
| Break points saved | 58.7% | 53.8% |
| Break points converted | 40.6% | 48.6% |
| Return points won (career) | 39% | 47% |
| Tiebreak win % | 52% | 49% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 48% | 49% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 54% | 62% |
Nikolas Sanchez-Izquierdo vs Miguel Tobon
🧠 Form & Context
Nikolas Sanchez-Izquierdo
- 📊 Ranked No. 151 at 27, 6–4 in his last 10 and winning 51% of recent matches. Beat Misolic in round two.
- 🔁 The much better returner: 37.3% against the first serve and 54.3% against the second, with 46.3% of break points converted.
- 🎯 Lands more first serves: 65.2%.
- 🏆 Has won 55% of career deciding sets, 58% of best-of-three matches and 87% after taking the first set.
- ⚠️ Wins 63.9% behind the first serve and has won 46% of his tiebreaks.
Miguel Tobon
- 📈 Ranked No. 422 at 20, 7–3 in his last 10 and winning 48% of recent matches. Beat Midon in round two.
- 🚀 The bigger first serve: 67.5% of points won (69% recently).
- 🔒 Saves 58.1% of break points.
- 🎲 Has won 51% of his tiebreaks.
- ⚠️ A weaker returner (31.9% against the first serve), and his sample at this level is small.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting in the quarterfinals. Sanchez-Izquierdo is the 1.44 favourite and is ranked 271 places higher.
On serve they are close. Tobon wins more behind the first serve (67.5% vs 63.9%) and saves more break points (58.1% vs 56.8%), while Sanchez-Izquierdo lands far more first serves (65.2% vs 59.1%).
Sanchez-Izquierdo is much the better returner: 37.3% against the first serve to 31.9%, 54.3% against the second to 51.0%, and 46.3% of break points converted to 44.8%.
Tobon is 7–3 in his last 10 against 6–4, but Sanchez-Izquierdo has the better record in tight matches (55% of career deciding sets against 44%).
Sanchez-Izquierdo's return game should matter on clay, which is why he is favourite.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Sanchez-Izquierdo | Tobon |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 151 | 422 |
| Age | 27 | 20 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 65.2% | 59.1% |
| 1st-serve points won | 63.9% | 67.5% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 49.5% | 49.9% |
| Break points saved | 56.8% | 58.1% |
| Break points converted | 46.3% | 44.8% |
| Return points won (career) | 44% | 39% |
| Tiebreak win % | 46% | 51% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 55% | 44% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 58% | 48% |
Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva
🧠 Form & Context
Genaro Alberto Olivieri
- 📈 Ranked No. 244 at 28, 7–3 in his last 10 and winning 54% of recent matches. Beat Varillas in round two.
- 🎯 Lands more first serves: 66.7%.
- 🔁 Slightly better on return: 36.7% against the first serve and 52.5% against the second.
- 🏆 Has won 57% of career deciding sets and 86% of matches after taking the first set.
- ⚠️ Wins 62.8% behind the first serve (59% recently) and saves 55.4% of break points.
Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva
- 🔥 Ranked No. 190 at 26, 8–2 in his last 10 and winning 58% of recent matches. Beat Bueno in round two.
- 🚀 The stronger first serve: 65.8% of points won (68% recently).
- 🔒 Saves 58.0% of break points.
- 🎲 Has won 56% of his tiebreaks.
- ⚠️ Has won only 46% of career deciding sets.
🔍 Match Breakdown
Their fifth meeting, all on clay, and the head-to-head is level at 2–2. Reis Da Silva won the most recent one here in Lima last year, 6–3, 6–4. He is the 1.46 favourite.
Reis Da Silva has the stronger first serve (65.8% vs 62.8%) and saves more break points (58.0% vs 55.4%). They are level behind the second serve (49.3% vs 49.4%), and Olivieri lands more first serves (66.7% vs 63.7%).
On return there is little in it: Olivieri is slightly better against the first serve (36.7% vs 34.9%) and the second (52.5% vs 51.9%), while Reis Da Silva converts slightly more break points (44.1% vs 43.4%).
Both come in with good form: Reis Da Silva 8–2 in his last 10, Olivieri 7–3. Olivieri has the better record in deciding sets (57% vs 46% over his career).
Two players who know each other well, and the numbers say this is closer than the price.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Olivieri | Reis Da Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 244 | 190 |
| Age | 28 | 26 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Head-to-head | 2 | 2 |
| First serves in | 66.7% | 63.7% |
| 1st-serve points won | 62.8% | 65.8% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 49.3% | 49.4% |
| Break points saved | 55.4% | 58.0% |
| Break points converted | 43.4% | 44.1% |
| Return points won (career) | 42% | 41% |
| Tiebreak win % | 52% | 56% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 57% | 46% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 56% | 55% |
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