First-round previews from the Lima 3 Challenger (clay), with form, serve and return numbers and a full Tale of the Tape for every open match. Matches marked 🔒 are on today's PBTennis Patreon card. Times are as listed by the tournament schedule and may move with the order of play.
Daniel Rincon vs Santiago De La Fuente
🧠 Form & Context
Daniel Rincon
- 📈 Ranked No. 234 at 23, a left-hander, 5–5 in his last 10 and winning 62% of recent matches.
- 🚀 The much stronger first serve: 68.9% of points won (69% recently).
- 🔒 Saves 58.5% of break points, and 63% in recent matches.
- 🏆 Has won 68% of deciding sets this season, 60% over his career and 89% of matches after taking the first set.
- ⚠️ The weaker returner: 34.9% against the first serve and 41% of career return points.
Santiago De La Fuente
- 📊 Ranked No. 756 at 24, 4–6 in his last 10 and winning 48% of recent matches.
- 🔁 The better returner: 39.7% against the first serve and 54.1% against the second, and 45% of career return points.
- 🎯 Converts 46.4% of break points.
- 🚀 Lands 71.4% of first serves.
- ⚠️ Wins only 60.4% behind his first serve and saves 53.5% of break points. Has won 42% of career deciding sets.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting. Rincon is the heavy 1.14 favourite and is ranked more than 500 places higher.
Rincon is the much stronger server: 68.9% behind the first serve to 60.4%, 47.8% behind the second to 46.6%, and 58.5% of break points saved to 53.5%. De La Fuente lands far more first serves (71.4% vs 60.3%).
De La Fuente is the better returner: 39.7% against the first serve to 34.9%, and 54.1% against the second to 51.6%. He also converts more break points (46.4% vs 44.8%).
Rincon is 5–5 in his last 10 against 4–6 and has won more of his recent matches (62% vs 48%). He also has the far better record in deciding sets: 68% this season against 44%.
Rincon's serve and record in tight finishes explain the short price, while De La Fuente's return is his way into the match.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Rincon | De La Fuente |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 234 | 756 |
| Age | 23 | 24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 60.3% | 71.4% |
| 1st-serve points won | 68.9% | 60.4% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 47.8% | 46.6% |
| Break points saved | 58.5% | 53.5% |
| Break points converted | 44.8% | 46.4% |
| Return points won (career) | 41% | 45% |
| Tiebreak win % | 50% | 43% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 60% | 42% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 57% | 52% |
Juan Carlos Prado Angelo vs Ryo Tabata
🧠 Form & Context
Juan Carlos Prado Angelo
- 📈 Ranked No. 182 at 21, 6–4 in his last 10 and winning 54% of recent matches.
- 🔁 The better returner: 37.2% against the first serve and 52.4% against the second, and 43% of career return points.
- 🚀 Stronger behind the first serve: 64.8% of points won.
- 🏆 Has won 65% of career deciding sets, 58% of tiebreaks and 91% of matches after taking the first set.
- ⚠️ Lands only 59.9% of first serves.
Ryo Tabata
- 📊 Ranked No. 844 at 18, 6–4 in his last 10 and winning 60% of recent matches.
- 🚀 Lands 66.1% of first serves, and has won 54% behind his second serve recently.
- 🏆 Has won 67% of career tiebreaks and 59% of deciding sets this season.
- 🎯 Has converted 47% of break points recently.
- ⚠️ Wins only 61.4% behind his first serve, and his sample at this level is small.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting. Prado Angelo is the 1.23 favourite and is ranked more than 660 places higher.
Prado Angelo is stronger behind the first serve (64.8% vs 61.4%) and slightly ahead behind the second (50.7% vs 49.8%). Tabata lands more first serves (66.1% vs 59.9%), and they save break points at the same rate (57.1% vs 56.8%).
Prado Angelo is the better returner: 37.2% against the first serve to 34.7%, and 52.4% against the second to 50.9%. They convert break points at the same rate (44.9% vs 44.6%).
Both are 6–4 in their last 10, and Tabata has won slightly more of his recent matches (60% vs 54%). Prado Angelo has the better career deciding-set record (65% vs 56%), Tabata the better tiebreak record (67% vs 58%).
Prado Angelo leads on serve and return, which explains the price. Tabata's numbers come from a small sample.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Prado Angelo | Tabata |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 182 | 844 |
| Age | 21 | 18 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 59.9% | 66.1% |
| 1st-serve points won | 64.8% | 61.4% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 50.7% | 49.8% |
| Break points saved | 57.1% | 56.8% |
| Break points converted | 44.9% | 44.6% |
| Return points won (career) | 43% | 40% |
| Tiebreak win % | 58% | 67% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 65% | 56% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 59% | 49% |
Zdenek Kolar vs Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva
🧠 Form & Context
Zdenek Kolar
- 📊 Ranked No. 204 at 30, 5–5 in his last 10 but winning only 39% of recent matches.
- 🚀 Slightly stronger behind the first serve: 67.1% of points won.
- 🏆 Has won 53% of career deciding sets and 87% of matches after taking the first set.
- 🔒 Saves 57.9% of break points.
- ⚠️ Has won only 35% of deciding sets this season, and has saved 53% of break points recently.
Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva
- 🔥 Ranked No. 190 at 26, 8–2 in his last 10 and winning 58% of recent matches.
- 🚀 Lands 63.7% of first serves, and has won 68% behind his first serve recently.
- 🏆 Has won 56% of career tiebreaks.
- 🎯 Has converted 46% of break points recently.
- ⚠️ Has won only 46% of his career deciding sets.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting. Reis Da Silva is the 1.33 favourite, and the two are ranked 14 places apart.
On serve they are almost identical: 67.1% vs 65.8% behind the first serve, 49.6% vs 49.4% behind the second, and 57.9% vs 58.0% of break points saved. Reis Da Silva lands slightly more first serves (63.7% vs 62.0%).
On return they are just as close: 34.2% vs 34.9% against the first serve and 51.8% vs 51.9% against the second. They convert break points at exactly the same rate (44.1%).
The form is clearly with Reis Da Silva: 8–2 in his last 10 against 5–5, and 58% of recent matches won against 39%. Kolar has the better career deciding-set record (53% vs 46%).
Almost nothing between them on serve and return. Reis Da Silva's form is what the price is built on.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Kolar | Reis Da Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 204 | 190 |
| Age | 30 | 26 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 62.0% | 63.7% |
| 1st-serve points won | 67.1% | 65.8% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 49.6% | 49.4% |
| Break points saved | 57.9% | 58.0% |
| Break points converted | 44.1% | 44.1% |
| Return points won (career) | 41% | 41% |
| Tiebreak win % | 49% | 56% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 53% | 46% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 56% | 55% |
Marco Cecchinato vs Francisco Comesana
🧠 Form & Context
Marco Cecchinato
- 📊 Ranked No. 173 at 34, with a one-handed backhand, 5–5 in his last 10 and winning 58% of recent matches.
- 🤝 Leads the head-to-head 2–0, including a win in Costa do Sauipe last week.
- 🚀 Slightly stronger on serve: 68.3% on the first serve and 51.5% on the second.
- 🔒 Saves 59.8% of break points. Has won 54% of career tiebreaks.
- ⚠️ The weaker returner (31.9% against the first serve), and has converted 36% of break points recently.
Francisco Comesana
- 📈 Ranked No. 138 at 26, 5–5 in his last 10 and winning 48% of recent matches.
- 🔁 The better returner: 35.6% against the first serve, and 41% of career return points.
- 🚀 Lands 66.0% of first serves, and has won 71% behind his first serve recently.
- 🏆 Has won 55% of career deciding sets, 62% of best-of-three matches and 89% of matches after taking the first set.
- ⚠️ Has won only 33% of deciding sets this season and 49% of career tiebreaks.
🔍 Match Breakdown
Their third meeting. Cecchinato leads 2–0 and won the most recent, 6–1, 6–7, 7–6 on clay in Costa do Sauipe last week. Comesana is the 1.66 favourite and is ranked 35 places higher.
On serve they are close. Cecchinato is slightly ahead behind the first serve (68.3% vs 67.5%) and the second (51.5% vs 49.8%), and saves more break points (59.8% vs 57.3%).
Comesana is the better returner: 35.6% against the first serve to 31.9%, and 51.5% against the second to 50.2%. He also converts more break points (43.1% vs 41.3%).
Both are 5–5 in their last 10, but Cecchinato has won more of his recent matches (58% vs 48%). He also has the better tiebreak record (54% vs 49%).
Comesana's return and ranking explain the price, but Cecchinato has won both of their meetings, including last week's.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Cecchinato | Comesana |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 173 | 138 |
| Age | 34 | 26 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Head-to-head | 2 | 0 |
| First serves in | 65.1% | 66.0% |
| 1st-serve points won | 68.3% | 67.5% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 51.5% | 49.8% |
| Break points saved | 59.8% | 57.3% |
| Break points converted | 41.3% | 43.1% |
| Return points won (career) | 39% | 41% |
| Tiebreak win % | 54% | 49% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 52% | 55% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 57% | 62% |
Juan Pablo Varillas vs Tomas Barrios Vera
🔒 Members-only read
This match is on today's PBTennis Patreon card. The full breakdown – form, serve and return numbers, the Tale of the Tape and our read on the match – is available to our members.
Nikolas Sanchez-Izquierdo vs Nicolas Jarry
🔒 Members-only read
This match is on today's PBTennis Patreon card. The full breakdown – form, serve and return numbers, the Tale of the Tape and our read on the match – is available to our members.
Alan Magadan vs Oriol Roca Batalla
🧠 Form & Context
Alan Magadan
- 📊 Ranked No. 491 at 25, 5–5 in his last 10 and winning 59% of recent matches.
- 🚀 Wins 69.2% behind his first serve.
- 🏆 Has won 63% of career tiebreaks and 57% of deciding sets this season.
- 🔒 Has saved 60% of break points in recent matches.
- ⚠️ Lands only 57.2% of first serves and converts 40.0% of break points. Has won 38% of career deciding sets.
Oriol Roca Batalla
- 📈 Ranked No. 283 at 33, with a one-handed backhand, 7–3 in his last 10 and winning 64% of recent matches.
- 🔁 The better returner: 35.5% against the first serve and 52.0% against the second, and 42% of career return points.
- 🔒 Saves 60.5% of break points (63% recently).
- 🏆 Has won 65% of deciding sets this season and 61% of best-of-three matches.
- ⚠️ Has won 52% of career tiebreaks, well below his opponent.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting. Roca Batalla is the heavy 1.11 favourite and is ranked about 200 places higher.
On serve they are close. Magadan wins slightly more behind the first serve (69.2% vs 68.5%), while Roca Batalla lands more first serves (61.1% vs 57.2%), is stronger behind the second (51.3% vs 49.7%) and saves more break points (60.5% vs 56.8%).
Roca Batalla is the better returner: 35.5% against the first serve to 32.5%, and 52.0% against the second to 50.1%. He also converts more break points (42.6% vs 40.0%).
Roca Batalla is 7–3 in his last 10 against 5–5 and has won more of his recent matches (64% vs 59%). Magadan has the far better tiebreak record (63% vs 52%).
Roca Batalla leads on return, form and experience, which explains the short price.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Magadan | Roca Batalla |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 491 | 283 |
| Age | 25 | 33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 57.2% | 61.1% |
| 1st-serve points won | 69.2% | 68.5% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 49.7% | 51.3% |
| Break points saved | 56.8% | 60.5% |
| Break points converted | 40.0% | 42.6% |
| Return points won (career) | 39% | 42% |
| Tiebreak win % | 63% | 52% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 38% | 53% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 51% | 61% |
Elmer Moller vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri
🧠 Form & Context
Elmer Moller
- 📈 Ranked No. 148 at 23, 6–4 in his last 10 and winning 54% of recent matches.
- 🔁 The better returner: 37.0% against the first serve and 56.8% against the second, and 45% of career return points.
- 🎯 Converts 46.5% of break points.
- 🏆 Has won 64% of best-of-three matches and 55% of career tiebreaks.
- ⚠️ Weak behind his second serve (47.0%), and has won 45% of deciding sets this season.
Genaro Alberto Olivieri
- 📊 Ranked No. 244 at 28, 6–4 in his last 10 and winning 51% of recent matches.
- 🚀 Lands 66.7% of first serves and wins 49.2% behind his second serve.
- 🤝 Won their only meeting, 7–6, 7–6 on clay in Montevideo in November 2024.
- 🏆 Has won 57% of career deciding sets.
- ⚠️ Wins only 62.8% behind his first serve and saves 55.5% of break points.
🔍 Match Breakdown
Their second meeting. Olivieri won the first, 7–6, 7–6 on clay in Montevideo in November 2024. Moller is the 1.44 favourite and is ranked 96 places higher.
On serve they are close. Moller wins more behind the first serve (65.7% vs 62.8%) and saves more break points (58.5% vs 55.5%), while Olivieri lands more first serves (66.7% vs 62.7%) and is stronger behind the second (49.2% vs 47.0%).
Moller is the better returner, especially against the second serve: 56.8% to 52.5%. He also converts more break points (46.5% vs 43.5%).
Both are 6–4 in their last 10, and they have won a similar share of recent matches (54% vs 51%). Olivieri has the better career deciding-set record (57% vs 50%).
Moller's return explains the price, but Olivieri won their only meeting in two tiebreaks.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Moller | Olivieri |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 148 | 244 |
| Age | 23 | 28 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 1 |
| First serves in | 62.7% | 66.7% |
| 1st-serve points won | 65.7% | 62.8% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 47.0% | 49.2% |
| Break points saved | 58.5% | 55.5% |
| Break points converted | 46.5% | 43.5% |
| Return points won (career) | 45% | 42% |
| Tiebreak win % | 55% | 52% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 50% | 57% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 64% | 56% |
Alessandro Rubini vs Franco Roncadelli
🧠 Form & Context
Alessandro Rubini
- 📊 Unranked at 17, with very little recorded match data at this level.
- 🚀 Lands 71.2% of first serves.
- 🔁 Wins 46.2% of points against the second serve.
- 📈 Has won 55% behind his first serve in recent matches.
- ⚠️ Has not won any of his last 10 matches in our data, and wins only 45.5% behind his first serve.
Franco Roncadelli
- 📈 Ranked No. 258 at 26, a left-hander, 4–6 in his last 10 and winning 55% of recent matches.
- 🔁 A strong returner: 39.7% against the first serve and 55.3% against the second, and 46% of career return points.
- 🎯 Converts 48.7% of break points (52% recently).
- 🏆 Has won 70% of deciding sets this season, 58% over his career and 91% of matches after taking the first set.
- ⚠️ Wins only 59.1% behind his first serve and saves 54.2% of break points.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting. Roncadelli is the heavy 1.06 favourite against the unranked 17-year-old.
Roncadelli is stronger on serve: 59.1% behind the first serve to 45.5%, 47.4% behind the second to 43.2%, and 54.2% of break points saved to 50.8%. He also lands more first serves (74.2% vs 71.2%).
The return gap is huge. Roncadelli wins 39.7% against the first serve to 26.3%, and 55.3% against the second to 46.2%. He also converts far more break points (48.7% vs 31.0%).
Roncadelli is 4–6 in his last 10, while Rubini has not won any of his last 10 in our data. Rubini's record is very thin, so his numbers should be read with real caution.
Roncadelli leads on every line, which explains the very short price.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Rubini | Roncadelli |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | – | 258 |
| Age | 17 | 26 |
| Last 10 | 0–10 | 4–6 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 71.2% | 74.2% |
| 1st-serve points won | 45.5% | 59.1% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 43.2% | 47.4% |
| Break points saved | 50.8% | 54.2% |
| Break points converted | 31.0% | 48.7% |
| Return points won (career) | 34% | 46% |
| Tiebreak win % | – | 49% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | – | 58% |
| Best-of-3 win % | – | 57% |
Gonzalo Bueno vs Carlos Sanchez Jover
🧠 Form & Context
Gonzalo Bueno
- 📊 Ranked No. 184 at 22, 5–5 in his last 10 and winning 54% of recent matches.
- 🔁 Returns well: 37.1% against the first serve and 53.6% against the second.
- 🎯 Converts 45.0% of break points.
- 🤝 Won their most recent meeting, 0–6, 6–4, 6–4 on clay in Seville in September.
- ⚠️ Wins only 62.0% behind his first serve and saves 55.7% of break points. Has converted 37% of break points recently.
Carlos Sanchez Jover
- 📊 Ranked No. 328 at 26, a left-hander, 4–6 in his last 10 but winning 58% of recent matches.
- 🔁 The better returner: 38.6% against the first serve and 55.2% against the second, and 45% of career return points.
- 🔒 Saves 56.8% of break points (60% recently).
- 🏆 Has won 63% of deciding sets this season, 61% of best-of-three matches and 88% of matches after taking the first set.
- ⚠️ Wins only 61.9% behind his first serve.
🔍 Match Breakdown
Their third meeting, level at 1–1. Bueno won the most recent, 0–6, 6–4, 6–4 on clay in Seville in September. He is the 1.35 favourite and is ranked 144 places higher.
On serve they are almost identical: 62.0% vs 61.9% behind the first serve and 64.4% vs 64.5% of first serves in. Sanchez Jover is slightly stronger behind the second serve (49.5% vs 48.3%) and saves more break points (56.8% vs 55.7%).
Sanchez Jover is the better returner: 38.6% against the first serve to 37.1%, and 55.2% against the second to 53.6%. They convert break points at the same rate (45.0% vs 45.2%).
Bueno is 5–5 in his last 10 against 4–6, but Sanchez Jover has won more of his recent matches (58% vs 54%) and more deciding sets this season (63% vs 52%).
A very even match on paper. Bueno's ranking and their latest meeting explain the price.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Bueno | Sanchez Jover |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 184 | 328 |
| Age | 22 | 26 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Head-to-head | 1 | 1 |
| First serves in | 64.4% | 64.5% |
| 1st-serve points won | 62.0% | 61.9% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 48.3% | 49.5% |
| Break points saved | 55.7% | 56.8% |
| Break points converted | 45.0% | 45.2% |
| Return points won (career) | 43% | 45% |
| Tiebreak win % | 56% | 55% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 57% | 58% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 55% | 61% |
No comments:
Post a Comment