First-round previews from the Hersonissos 3 Challenger (hard), with form, serve and return numbers and a full Tale of the Tape for every open match. Matches marked 🔒 are on today's PBTennis Patreon card. Times are as listed by the tournament schedule and may move with the order of play.
Lorenzo Angelini vs Robin Bertrand
🧠 Form & Context
Lorenzo Angelini
- 📊 Ranked No. 531 at 20, 5–5 in his last 10 and winning 56% of recent matches.
- 🔁 A strong returner: 39.7% against the first serve and 54.6% against the second, and 45% of career return points.
- 🚀 Lands 67.3% of first serves.
- 🏆 Has won 89% of matches after taking the first set.
- ⚠️ A weak server: 59.2% behind the first serve, 45.3% behind the second and 53.4% of break points saved. His sample at this level is small.
Robin Bertrand
- 📈 Ranked No. 406 at 23, 7–3 in his last 10 and winning 60% of recent matches.
- 🚀 The stronger server: 64.7% on the first serve and 49.7% on the second.
- 🎯 Converts 47.8% of break points (51% recently).
- 🔒 Saves 56.0% of break points. Has won 60% of best-of-three matches.
- ⚠️ Has won only 40% of deciding sets this season.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting. Bertrand is the 1.39 favourite and is ranked 125 places higher.
Neither is a big server, but Bertrand is clearly the stronger one: 64.7% behind the first serve to 59.2%, 49.7% behind the second to 45.3%, and 56.0% of break points saved to 53.4%. Angelini lands slightly more first serves (67.3% vs 65.6%).
Both return well. Angelini is better against the first serve (39.7% vs 36.4%) and the two are level against the second (54.6% vs 54.4%). Bertrand converts more break points (47.8% vs 45.2%).
Bertrand is 7–3 in his last 10 against 5–5 and has won slightly more of his recent matches (60% vs 56%). Their career records in tiebreaks and deciding sets are almost identical.
Bertrand's serve explains the price, in a match where breaks should come often.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Angelini | Bertrand |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 531 | 406 |
| Age | 20 | 23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 67.3% | 65.6% |
| 1st-serve points won | 59.2% | 64.7% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 45.3% | 49.7% |
| Break points saved | 53.4% | 56.0% |
| Break points converted | 45.2% | 47.8% |
| Return points won (career) | 45% | 43% |
| Tiebreak win % | 50% | 52% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 52% | 53% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 56% | 60% |
Ioannis Xilas vs Sergey Fomin
🧠 Form & Context
Ioannis Xilas
- 🔥 Ranked No. 502 at 25, 7–3 in his last 10 and winning 56% of recent matches.
- 🔁 The far better returner: 39.6% against the first serve and 56.1% against the second, and 46% of career return points.
- 🎯 Converts 47.7% of break points.
- 🏆 Has won 56% of career tiebreaks and 58% of best-of-three matches.
- ⚠️ A weak server: 62.6% behind the first serve, 45.2% behind the second and 53.3% of break points saved.
Sergey Fomin
- 📉 Ranked No. 293 at 25, 3–7 in his last 10 and winning 38% of recent matches.
- 🚀 The stronger server: 67.1% on the first serve (68% recently) and 48.9% on the second.
- 🔒 Saves 55.4% of break points.
- 🏆 Has won 62% of deciding sets this season.
- ⚠️ Lands only 58.9% of first serves, and has converted 40% of break points recently.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting. Xilas is the 1.42 favourite despite being ranked more than 200 places lower.
Fomin is the stronger server: 67.1% behind the first serve to 62.6%, 48.9% behind the second to 45.2%, and 55.4% of break points saved to 53.3%. Xilas lands more first serves (63.6% vs 58.9%).
Xilas is the far better returner: 39.6% against the first serve to 33.8%, and 56.1% against the second to 51.8%. He also converts more break points (47.7% vs 44.3%).
The form is clearly with Xilas: 7–3 in his last 10 against 3–7, and 56% of recent matches won against 38%. Fomin has won more deciding sets this season (62% vs 48%).
Xilas's return and form explain the price, while Fomin's serve gives him a route into the match.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Xilas | Fomin |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 502 | 293 |
| Age | 25 | 25 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 63.6% | 58.9% |
| 1st-serve points won | 62.6% | 67.1% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 45.2% | 48.9% |
| Break points saved | 53.3% | 55.4% |
| Break points converted | 47.7% | 44.3% |
| Return points won (career) | 46% | 41% |
| Tiebreak win % | 56% | 52% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 45% | 51% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 58% | 54% |
Michael Geerts vs Juan Cruz Martin Manzano
🔒 Members-only read
This match is on today's PBTennis Patreon card. The full breakdown – form, serve and return numbers, the Tale of the Tape and our read on the match – is available to our members.
Pavlos Tsitsipas vs Cezar Cretu
🧠 Form & Context
Pavlos Tsitsipas
- 📊 Unranked at 21, with a one-handed backhand, 5–5 in his last 10 and winning 52% of recent matches.
- 🚀 Wins 67.2% behind his first serve (71% recently).
- 🔒 Saves 58.3% of break points (61% recently).
- 🏆 Has won 83% of matches after taking the first set.
- ⚠️ A weak returner: 29.0% against the first serve, 46.5% against the second and 39.2% of break points converted. Has won 39% of best-of-three matches.
Cezar Cretu
- 🔥 Ranked No. 269 at 25, 8–2 in his last 10 and winning 59% of recent matches.
- 🔁 The far better returner: 37.5% against the first serve and 54.7% against the second, and 44% of career return points.
- 🎯 Converts 46.6% of break points.
- 🏆 Has won 63% of career deciding sets, 67% of best-of-three matches and 92% of matches after taking the first set.
- ⚠️ Wins 65.4% behind his first serve, slightly less than his opponent.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting. Cretu is the heavy 1.08 favourite against the unranked Tsitsipas.
On serve they are close. Tsitsipas wins slightly more behind the first serve (67.2% vs 65.4%), while Cretu lands far more first serves (64.3% vs 57.0%) and is stronger behind the second (49.9% vs 46.6%). They save break points at the same rate (58.3% vs 57.9%).
The return gap is huge. Cretu wins 37.5% against the first serve to 29.0%, and 54.7% against the second to 46.5%. He also converts far more break points (46.6% vs 39.2%).
Cretu is 8–2 in his last 10 against 5–5. He also has the far better career records in deciding sets (63% vs 50%) and best-of-three matches (67% vs 39%).
Cretu leads clearly on return, form and record, which explains the short price.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Tsitsipas | Cretu |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | – | 269 |
| Age | 21 | 25 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 57.0% | 64.3% |
| 1st-serve points won | 67.2% | 65.4% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 46.6% | 49.9% |
| Break points saved | 58.3% | 57.9% |
| Break points converted | 39.2% | 46.6% |
| Return points won (career) | 35% | 44% |
| Tiebreak win % | 51% | 55% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 50% | 63% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 39% | 67% |
Carlo Alberto Caniato vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly
🧠 Form & Context
Carlo Alberto Caniato
- 📈 Ranked No. 306 at 21, 6–4 in his last 10 and winning 60% of recent matches.
- 🚀 The much stronger server: 70.4% on the first serve (75% recently) and 53.3% on the second.
- 🔒 Saves 59.3% of break points (62% recently).
- 🤝 Won their only meeting, 7–5, 6–2 on a hard court in Sintra last November.
- ⚠️ A weak returner (31.7% against the first serve), and has won 38% of career deciding sets and 45% of tiebreaks.
Gilles Arnaud Bailly
- 📊 Ranked No. 484 at 21, 5–5 in his last 10 and winning 40% of recent matches.
- 🔁 The better returner: 36.3% against the first serve and 54.4% against the second, and 43% of career return points.
- 🎯 Converts 48.0% of break points.
- 🏆 Has won 73% of career tiebreaks and 59% of best-of-three matches.
- ⚠️ Weaker on serve: 64.9% behind the first serve and 54.7% of break points saved. Has won 33% of deciding sets this season.
🔍 Match Breakdown
Their second meeting. Caniato won the first, 7–5, 6–2 on a hard court in Sintra last November. He is the 1.42 favourite and is ranked 178 places higher.
Caniato is the much stronger server: 70.4% behind the first serve to 64.9%, 53.3% behind the second to 50.3%, and 59.3% of break points saved to 54.7%. They land first serves at the same rate (61.8% vs 62.2%).
Bailly is the better returner: 36.3% against the first serve to 31.7%, and 54.4% against the second to 50.6%. He also converts far more break points (48.0% vs 42.9%).
Caniato is 6–4 in his last 10 against 5–5 and has won more of his recent matches (60% vs 40%). Bailly has the much better tiebreak record, though (73% vs 45%).
Caniato's serve, form and their only meeting explain the price, while Bailly's return and tiebreak record keep him in it.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Caniato | Bailly |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 306 | 484 |
| Age | 21 | 21 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Head-to-head | 1 | 0 |
| First serves in | 61.8% | 62.2% |
| 1st-serve points won | 70.4% | 64.9% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 53.3% | 50.3% |
| Break points saved | 59.3% | 54.7% |
| Break points converted | 42.9% | 48.0% |
| Return points won (career) | 39% | 43% |
| Tiebreak win % | 45% | 73% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 38% | 49% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 55% | 59% |
Andrej Nedic vs Michele Ribecai
🧠 Form & Context
Andrej Nedic
- 📊 Ranked No. 246 at 22, 5–5 in his last 10 and winning 58% of recent matches.
- 🔁 An excellent returner: 41.0% against the first serve, and 46% of career return points.
- 🎯 Converts 49.7% of break points.
- 🏆 Has won 60% of career deciding sets and 67% of best-of-three matches.
- ⚠️ Wins 63.5% behind his first serve and saves 56.7% of break points.
Michele Ribecai
- 📊 Ranked No. 284 at 23, 6–4 in his last 10 and winning 46% of recent matches.
- 🚀 Slightly stronger behind both serves: 64.1% on the first and 51.9% on the second.
- 🔒 Saves 57.0% of break points (61% recently).
- 🔁 Strong against the second serve: 54.9% of points won.
- ⚠️ Has won only 31% of deciding sets this season and 39% over his career.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting. Ribecai is the 1.52 favourite, although Nedic is ranked 38 places higher.
On serve they are close. Ribecai is slightly ahead behind the first serve (64.1% vs 63.5%) and the second (51.9% vs 50.5%), while Nedic lands more first serves (64.0% vs 60.8%). They save break points at the same rate (56.7% vs 57.0%).
Nedic is the better returner against the first serve (41.0% vs 38.1%), Ribecai against the second (54.9% vs 53.6%). Nedic converts more break points (49.7% vs 46.9%).
Ribecai is 6–4 in his last 10 against 5–5, but Nedic has won more of his recent matches (58% vs 46%). Nedic also has the far better deciding-set record: 60% against 39% over their careers.
A very close match on paper. Nedic's return and record in tight finishes could make this tighter than the price.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Nedic | Ribecai |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 246 | 284 |
| Age | 22 | 23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 64.0% | 60.8% |
| 1st-serve points won | 63.5% | 64.1% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 50.5% | 51.9% |
| Break points saved | 56.7% | 57.0% |
| Break points converted | 49.7% | 46.9% |
| Return points won (career) | 46% | 45% |
| Tiebreak win % | 52% | 50% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 60% | 39% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 67% | 61% |
Radu Mihai Papoe vs Philip Henning
🧠 Form & Context
Radu Mihai Papoe
- 🔥 Ranked No. 280 at 24, 6–4 in his last 10 and winning 84% of recent matches.
- 🔁 The better returner: 40.4% against the first serve and 56.9% against the second, and 47% of career return points.
- 🎯 Converts 50.3% of break points (52% recently).
- 🏆 Has won 58% of career deciding sets, 70% of best-of-three matches and 94% of matches after taking the first set.
- ⚠️ Wins only 63.0% behind his first serve and saves 57.4% of break points.
Philip Henning
- 📈 Ranked No. 236 at 25, 6–4 in his last 10 and winning 64% of recent matches.
- 🚀 The much stronger server: 70.3% on the first serve and 55.4% on the second.
- 🔒 Saves 62.9% of break points (66% recently).
- 🏆 Has won 73% of best-of-three matches and 92% of matches after taking the first set.
- ⚠️ The weaker returner (35.0% against the first serve), and has converted 43% of break points recently.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting. Henning is the 1.58 favourite and is ranked 44 places higher.
Henning is the much stronger server: 70.3% behind the first serve to 63.0%, 55.4% behind the second to 53.9%, and 62.9% of break points saved to 57.4%. Papoe lands more first serves (68.3% vs 65.6%).
Papoe is the better returner: 40.4% against the first serve to 35.0%, and 56.9% against the second to 55.9%. He also converts more break points (50.3% vs 46.1%).
Both are 6–4 in their last 10, but Papoe has won far more of his recent matches (84% vs 64%). Both have excellent records in best-of-three matches (70% vs 73%).
Server against returner, between two players in good form. Henning's serve explains the price, but this looks close.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Papoe | Henning |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 280 | 236 |
| Age | 24 | 25 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 68.3% | 65.6% |
| 1st-serve points won | 63.0% | 70.3% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 53.9% | 55.4% |
| Break points saved | 57.4% | 62.9% |
| Break points converted | 50.3% | 46.1% |
| Return points won (career) | 47% | 43% |
| Tiebreak win % | 56% | 55% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 58% | 56% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 70% | 73% |
Francesco Maestrelli vs Jack Loge
🧠 Form & Context
Francesco Maestrelli
- 📊 Ranked No. 176 at 23, 5–5 in his last 10 but winning only 38% of recent matches.
- 🚀 The bigger first serve: 69.6% of points won (70% recently).
- 🔒 Saves 59.6% of break points, and 66% in recent matches.
- 🏆 Has won 54% of career tiebreaks and 88% of matches after taking the first set.
- ⚠️ Weak behind his second serve (46.4%) and on return against it (49.8%).
Jack Loge
- 🔥 Ranked No. 402 at 21, 9–1 in his last 10 and winning 65% of recent matches.
- 🔁 The better returner: 36.0% against the first serve and 53.3% against the second, and 43% of career return points.
- 🚀 Stronger behind the second serve: 49.5% of points won.
- 🏆 Has won 59% of best-of-three matches and 87% of matches after taking the first set.
- ⚠️ Wins 65.6% behind his first serve and saves 56.6% of break points.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting. Maestrelli is the 1.38 favourite and is ranked more than 220 places higher.
Maestrelli has the bigger first serve (69.6% vs 65.6%) and saves more break points (59.6% vs 56.6%). Loge is stronger behind the second serve (49.5% vs 46.4%) and lands slightly more first serves (62.6% vs 61.5%).
Loge is the better returner: 36.0% against the first serve to 33.6%, and 53.3% against the second to 49.8%. He converts slightly more break points (43.7% vs 42.8%).
The form gap is huge. Loge is 9–1 in his last 10 against 5–5, and has won 65% of his recent matches against 38%.
Maestrelli's ranking and first serve explain the price, but Loge's form and return make this look much closer.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Maestrelli | Loge |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 176 | 402 |
| Age | 23 | 21 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 9–1 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 61.5% | 62.6% |
| 1st-serve points won | 69.6% | 65.6% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 46.4% | 49.5% |
| Break points saved | 59.6% | 56.6% |
| Break points converted | 42.8% | 43.7% |
| Return points won (career) | 40% | 43% |
| Tiebreak win % | 54% | 51% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 55% | 54% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 53% | 59% |
Felix Gill vs Menelaos Efstathiou
🧠 Form & Context
Felix Gill
- 📈 Ranked No. 228 at 24, a left-hander, 6–4 in his last 10 and winning 50% of recent matches.
- 🚀 The much stronger server: 67.2% on the first serve (70% recently) and 52.0% on the second.
- 🔒 Saves 60.5% of break points.
- 🏆 Has won 71% of deciding sets this season, 60% of career tiebreaks and 64% of best-of-three matches.
- ⚠️ The weaker returner, and has converted only 37% of break points recently.
Menelaos Efstathiou
- 🔥 Ranked No. 558 at 27, 7–3 in his last 10 and winning 66% of recent matches.
- 🔁 The better returner: 37.5% against the first serve and 55.0% against the second, and 44% of career return points.
- 🎯 Converts 48.0% of break points (49% recently).
- 🏆 Has won 57% of career deciding sets.
- ⚠️ A weak server: 62.4% behind the first serve, 47.0% behind the second and 53.5% of break points saved.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting. Gill is the heavy 1.12 favourite and is ranked 330 places higher.
Gill is the much stronger server: 67.2% behind the first serve to 62.4%, 52.0% behind the second to 47.0%, and 60.5% of break points saved to 53.5%. They land first serves at the same rate (63.0% vs 63.2%).
Efstathiou is the better returner: 37.5% against the first serve to 34.6%, and 55.0% against the second to 52.9%. He also converts more break points (48.0% vs 44.5%).
Efstathiou is 7–3 in his last 10 against 6–4 and has won more of his recent matches (66% vs 50%). Gill has the far better record in tight finishes: 71% of deciding sets this season against 53%, and 60% of career tiebreaks against 47%.
Gill's serve and ranking explain the short price, while Efstathiou's return and form are his way into the match.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Gill | Efstathiou |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 228 | 558 |
| Age | 24 | 27 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 63.0% | 63.2% |
| 1st-serve points won | 67.2% | 62.4% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 52.0% | 47.0% |
| Break points saved | 60.5% | 53.5% |
| Break points converted | 44.5% | 48.0% |
| Return points won (career) | 42% | 44% |
| Tiebreak win % | 60% | 47% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 55% | 57% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 64% | 58% |
Karim Bennani vs Sumit Nagal
🧠 Form & Context
Karim Bennani
- 📈 Ranked No. 464 at 19, 5–5 in his last 10 and winning 61% of recent matches.
- 🚀 Wins 65.1% behind his first serve (66% recently).
- 🔒 Saves 57.1% of break points, and 57% in recent matches.
- 🏆 Has won 54% of career deciding sets and 61% of best-of-three matches.
- ⚠️ Has won only 38% of deciding sets this season, and his sample at this level is small.
Sumit Nagal
- 📊 Ranked No. 265 at 29, 5–5 in his last 10 and winning 51% of recent matches.
- 🚀 Lands 68.0% of first serves.
- 🔁 Slightly the better returner: 35.4% against the first serve and 54.4% against the second, and 43% of career return points.
- 🏆 Has won 56% of career tiebreaks.
- ⚠️ Has saved only 52% of break points recently, and has won 41% of deciding sets this season.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting. Nagal is the 1.40 favourite and is ranked about 200 places higher.
On serve they are almost identical: 65.1% vs 64.1% behind the first serve, 50.0% vs 50.4% behind the second, and 57.1% vs 56.6% of break points saved. Nagal lands more first serves (68.0% vs 65.0%).
On return there is very little between them: 34.4% vs 35.4% against the first serve, and 54.0% vs 54.4% against the second. Bennani converts slightly more break points (44.2% vs 43.8%).
Both are 5–5 in their last 10, and Bennani has won more of his recent matches (61% vs 51%). Nagal has the better tiebreak record (56% vs 48%), Bennani the better deciding-set record (54% vs 48%).
Very little between them on paper. Nagal's ranking and experience explain the price.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Bennani | Nagal |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 464 | 265 |
| Age | 19 | 29 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 65.0% | 68.0% |
| 1st-serve points won | 65.1% | 64.1% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 50.0% | 50.4% |
| Break points saved | 57.1% | 56.6% |
| Break points converted | 44.2% | 43.8% |
| Return points won (career) | 42% | 43% |
| Tiebreak win % | 48% | 56% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 54% | 48% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 61% | 59% |
Oskari Paldanius vs Raul Brancaccio
🧠 Form & Context
Oskari Paldanius
- 🔥 Ranked No. 624 at 19, 8–2 in his last 10 and winning 59% of recent matches.
- 🚀 Lands 66.3% of first serves.
- 🎯 Converts 47.0% of break points (47% recently).
- 🏆 Has won 63% of career tiebreaks.
- ⚠️ Saves only 55.3% of break points, and his sample at this level is very small.
Raul Brancaccio
- 📉 Ranked No. 221 at 29, 3–7 in his last 10 and winning 34% of recent matches.
- 🔁 Better against the first serve: 36.7% of points won, and 43% of career return points.
- 🔒 Saves 57.3% of break points (59% recently).
- 🏆 Has won 56% of best-of-three matches and 86% of matches after taking the first set.
- ⚠️ Has converted only 33% of break points recently, and has won 39% of deciding sets this season.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting. Paldanius is the 1.66 favourite despite being ranked about 400 places lower.
On serve they are close: 65.1% vs 65.7% behind the first serve and 48.1% vs 48.3% behind the second. Paldanius lands more first serves (66.3% vs 61.8%), while Brancaccio saves more break points (57.3% vs 55.3%).
Brancaccio is better against the first serve (36.7% vs 34.5%), Paldanius against the second (53.5% vs 52.9%). Paldanius converts more break points (47.0% vs 44.7%).
The form gap is huge. Paldanius is 8–2 in his last 10 against 3–7, and has won 59% of his recent matches against 34%. He also has the better tiebreak record (63% vs 53%).
Paldanius's form explains the price, although his numbers come from a very small sample.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Paldanius | Brancaccio |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 624 | 221 |
| Age | 19 | 29 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 66.3% | 61.8% |
| 1st-serve points won | 65.1% | 65.7% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 48.1% | 48.3% |
| Break points saved | 55.3% | 57.3% |
| Break points converted | 47.0% | 44.7% |
| Return points won (career) | 42% | 43% |
| Tiebreak win % | 63% | 53% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 44% | 45% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 52% | 56% |
Remy Bertola vs Lorenzo Carboni
🧠 Form & Context
Remy Bertola
- 📊 Ranked No. 222 at 28, with a one-handed backhand, 4–6 in his last 10 and winning 51% of recent matches.
- 🚀 The much stronger server: 69.1% on the first serve (71% recently) and 50.2% on the second.
- 🔒 Saves 59.3% of break points (61% recently).
- 🏆 Has won 60% of best-of-three matches and 87% of matches after taking the first set.
- ⚠️ Lands only 58.2% of first serves, and is the weaker returner.
Lorenzo Carboni
- 📊 Ranked No. 552 at 20, 5–5 in his last 10 and winning 50% of recent matches.
- 🔁 The better returner: 37.0% against the first serve and 54.9% against the second, and 44% of career return points.
- 🎯 Converts 45.7% of break points (49% recently).
- 🤝 Won their only meeting, 6–3, 6–7, 6–2 on clay in Lesa in August 2025.
- ⚠️ A weak server: 62.4% behind the first serve and 51.8% of break points saved.
🔍 Match Breakdown
Their second meeting. Carboni won the first, 6–3, 6–7, 6–2 on clay in Lesa in August 2025. Bertola is the 1.46 favourite and is ranked 330 places higher.
Bertola is the much stronger server: 69.1% behind the first serve to 62.4%, 50.2% behind the second to 48.7%, and 59.3% of break points saved to 51.8%. Carboni lands more first serves (62.8% vs 58.2%).
Carboni is the better returner: 37.0% against the first serve to 33.6%, and 54.9% against the second to 51.8%. He also converts more break points (45.7% vs 42.8%).
Carboni is 5–5 in his last 10 against 4–6, and they have won the same share of recent matches (50% vs 51%). Their career deciding-set records are identical (56% each).
Bertola's serve explains the price, but Carboni won their only meeting and has the better return.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Bertola | Carboni |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 222 | 552 |
| Age | 28 | 20 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 1 |
| First serves in | 58.2% | 62.8% |
| 1st-serve points won | 69.1% | 62.4% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 50.2% | 48.7% |
| Break points saved | 59.3% | 51.8% |
| Break points converted | 42.8% | 45.7% |
| Return points won (career) | 40% | 44% |
| Tiebreak win % | 51% | 49% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 56% | 56% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 60% | 57% |
Adrian Andreev vs Benjamin Pietri
🧠 Form & Context
Adrian Andreev
- 🔥 Ranked No. 631 at 25, 7–3 in his last 10 and winning 72% of recent matches.
- 🔒 Saves 57.2% of break points, and 61% in recent matches.
- 🎯 Has converted 54% of break points in recent matches.
- 🏆 Has won 64% of career tiebreaks and 52% of deciding sets.
- ⚠️ His serve numbers are only average: 65.5% behind the first serve and 49.7% behind the second.
Benjamin Pietri
- 📈 Ranked No. 744 at 30, with a one-handed backhand, 7–3 in his last 10 and winning 57% of recent matches.
- 🔁 Slightly better against the first serve: 35.0% of points won.
- 🚀 Lands 64.1% of first serves.
- 🏆 Has won 59% of best-of-three matches and 89% of matches after taking the first set.
- ⚠️ Has saved only 50% of break points recently, and has won 43% of deciding sets this season.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting. Andreev is the 1.33 favourite and is ranked 113 places higher.
On serve they are almost identical: 65.5% vs 65.2% behind the first serve and 49.7% vs 49.3% behind the second. Andreev saves more break points (57.2% vs 55.2%, and 61% vs 50% recently).
On return there is little between them. Pietri is slightly better against the first serve (35.0% vs 34.1%), Andreev against the second (53.3% vs 51.6%).
Both are 7–3 in their last 10, but Andreev has won more of his recent matches (72% vs 57%). He also has the far better tiebreak record (64% vs 51%).
Andreev's recent form and record in tight sets explain the price, in an otherwise very even match.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Andreev | Pietri |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 631 | 744 |
| Age | 25 | 30 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 63.5% | 64.1% |
| 1st-serve points won | 65.5% | 65.2% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 49.7% | 49.3% |
| Break points saved | 57.2% | 55.2% |
| Break points converted | 44.4% | 44.7% |
| Return points won (career) | 42% | 41% |
| Tiebreak win % | 64% | 51% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 52% | 47% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 56% | 59% |
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