Struff vs Moutet

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Struff vs Moutet — Almaty QF Preview

ATP Almaty Indoor Hard Quarterfinal

🧠 Form & Context

🇩🇪 Jan-Lennard Struff — 35, 193 cm, RH

• 🔁 Back-to-back 3-set wins here (d. McDonald; d. Khachanov in a TB).
• 📊 2025: Indoors 4–3 | Hard 7–11.
• 💥 Power-first 1–2 punch thriving under the roof; confidence uptick after two comebacks this week.

🇫🇷 Corentin Moutet — 26, 175 cm, LH

• ✅ Comfortable start in Almaty (d. Tomic; d. Shevchenko in straights).
• 📊 2025: Indoors 2–0 | Hard 15–12.
• 🌀 Strong summer hard-court body of work; disrupts rhythm with lefty angles, pace changes, and variety.

H2H: Moutet leads 2–1 (Metz 2024 in 3; Paris Olympics 2024; Struff won Bordeaux CH 2023).

Market lean: Moutet small fav (~1.73); Struff ~2.08

🔍 Match Breakdown

Serve patterns: Indoors amplifies Struff’s first-strike tennis; if the first-serve % holds, he protects service games and pushes sets toward tiebreaks. Moutet’s lefty slider into the ad court picks at Struff’s backhand return lane—vital on scoreboard points.

Rally dynamics: Struff looks to shorten exchanges and finish with forehand heat; Moutet extends, adding height and spin to tease backhand errors and lure Struff forward on awkward, low-pace balls.

Scoreboard pressure: Struff’s second serve can wobble if rallies lengthen; Moutet’s service games become dicey when he leaves short looks to the Struff forehand. Mini-break management in breakers could be decisive.

Recent signals: Struff has already solved two different problems this week (tempo shift vs McDonald; firepower vs Khachanov). Moutet has been businesslike and fresher on mileage.

🔮 Prediction

Lean Moutet in three. The lefty variety and counter-punching profile should extract enough neutral-to-defensive errors from Struff across a long match. That said, the indoor tiebreak tax is real—if Struff lands a high first-serve clip, he can flip coin-flip sets quickly. Edge to the fresher mover with the matchup patterns, but expect razor margins.

📊 Tale of the Tape (Qualitative)

• First-strike vs. disruption: Struff’s serve+FH combos vs Moutet’s lefty shape and variety.
• Indoors factor: Boosts Struff’s hold game; doesn’t negate Moutet’s feel and countering.
• H2H/Patterns: Moutet 2–1 with two recent wins at higher stages.
• Mileage this week: Edge Moutet — straights vs Struff’s two 3-setters.
• Leaning angle: Moutet 2–1 most live; multiple TBs in play.