Raphael Collignon vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

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ATP Brussels — Raphael Collignon vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

ATP Brussels Indoor Hard Quarterfinal

🧠 Form & Context

🇧🇪Raphael Collignon (#90, righty)

• 2025: 41–20 overall | Indoors 18–5 | Hard 2–4, Clay 19–10.
• Brussels: d. Bergs 6–4, 7–6; d. Comesaña 7–5, 3–6, 7–6(10).
• Big ’25 moments: US Open 3R (d. Ruud), Davis Cup wins over De Minaur & Vukic; deep Challenger run(s) (Orléans F, Lugano F, Pau title).
• Home comfort + confident under-the-roof résumé.

🇪🇸Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (#20, righty, 183 cm)

• 2025: 38–23 overall | Indoors 2–1 | Hard 22–14.
• Brussels: d. Giron 6–7(5), 6–1, 6–4.
• Big ’25 moments: Monte Carlo SF, Acapulco F, Delray Beach F, Washington F; multiple quality wins on hard.
• Recent trend: tight losses to Medvedev (Beijing/Shanghai); retired in Toronto/Cincy but fully active since. H2H: 0–0.

🔍 Match Breakdown

• Tempo & shot tolerance: ADF’s top-20 pace tolerance and transition instincts usually travel well indoors, especially versus opponents stepping up a tier.
• Serve/first-strike vs counter: Collignon’s comfort indoors (18–5 in ’25) plus home crowd should help him land first strikes and lean into breakers — he’s already edged a 7–6(10) this week.
• Physical/mental edges: ADF has lived in late rounds all year and handled pressure stretches on hard; Collignon’s busy schedule (DC, Challengers, Brussels) means sustaining level through third sets is the key variable.
• Market view: Current lean to ADF (~1.46) over Collignon (~2.66), reflecting tour-level seasoning and ceiling — but venue + form line keep the upset door ajar.

🔮 Prediction

Pick: Davidovich Fokina in three tight sets — higher baseline and return quality in the big moments, with home-charged Collignon live in breakers.

📊 Tale of the Tape

| Metric | Raphael Collignon | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | |---|---|---| | 2025 overall | **41–20** | **38–23** | | Indoors (’25) | **18–5** | **2–1** | | Hard (’25) | 2–4 | 22–14 | | H2H | 0–0 | 0–0 | | Notable this week | d. Bergs; d. Comesaña (7–6(10)) | d. Giron in 3 | | Edges | Home crowd; breaker composure | Return quality; top-20 pace tolerance | | Risk flags | Heavy recent workload | Recent tight losses; indoor reps fewer |