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Francisco Comesana vs Ugo Blanchet — Shanghai R1 Preview
🧠 Form & Context
Francisco Comesana (🇦🇷 #62, 24, RH)
- 📈 2025 hard: 8–8; has Masters 1000 wins (Toronto R2, Cincinnati R16) and USO R2.
- 🌍 Asia debut: first pro event(s) in this region.
- 🔙 H2H edge overall vs Blanchet (2–1) from Challengers/qualies.
Ugo Blanchet (🇫🇷 #151, 26, RH)
- ✅ Qualified here: d. Rigele Te & Eubanks — both in straight sets.
- 🔥 2025 hard: 13–8; US Open 3R as a qualifier (career-best ATP MD result).
- 💡 Indoors 2025: 6–1; generally a first-strike, momentum player.
🔍 Match Breakdown
Patterns: Comesana’s heavy, measured baseline game plays up as rallies stretch — the added hard-court bite in 2025 lets him pressure with depth before changing line. Blanchet wants shorter patterns behind a landing first serve and early forehand takes; if he hits a high 1st-serve clip and takes time away, he can flip the script.
Return/Depth: Comesana’s cross-court depth into the Blanchet backhand should coax lower-margin ball-striking across longer exchanges. If Blanchet can routinely take on-the-rise FHs from inside the baseline, he narrows that edge.
Intangibles: Blanchet’s qualies run brings fresh confidence and timing. Comesana carries the higher tour ceiling and a better “solve rate” at bigger events. It trends close if Blanchet serves lights-out in patches.
🔮 Prediction
Lean Comesana in three. Blanchet’s form makes this live and swingy, but in neutral-ish conditions over best-of-three, Comesana’s rally tolerance and incremental score pressure should tell — unless Blanchet sustains first-strike accuracy for long stretches.
Pick: Comesana 2–1 (e.g., 4–6, 6–3, 6–4).
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Attribute | Comesana | Blanchet |
|---|---|---|
| Baseline identity | Heavy depth + patient build; changes line to finish. | First-strike bias; early FH cuts, looks to shorten points. |
| Serve patterns | Targets corners/body to set up +1 FH cross → DTL. | Needs high 1st-serve% to protect 2nd; FH finish lanes. |
| Return & depth | Repeatable depth into BH; squeezes errors over time. | More hit-or-miss on deep ROS; best when stepping inside. |
| Rally length comfort | Favours 5+ shot exchanges; grind-and-pounce. | Prefers 0–4 shots; extended rallies reduce efficiency. |
| Recent form note | Masters MD wins + USO R2; Asia debut factor. | Qualified here (2–0); timing sharp from qualies. |
| 2025 hard W-L | 8–8 | 13–8 |
| Indoors 2025 | — | 6–1 |
| H2H (overall) | Leads 2–1 (Challenger/qualies) | Trails 1–2 |
| Big-event reps | Higher ceiling; Masters & Slam MD wins. | Breakthrough USO 3R as qualifier. |
Note: qualitative snapshot based on your provided 2025 form notes and matchup tendencies.
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