Tuesday, September 30, 2025

ATP Beijing — Jannik Sinner vs Alex de Minaur

Event: China Open • Round: Semifinal • Surface: Hard

🔥 Beijing streaks: Title ’23, finalist ’24; back in the last four after wins over Čilić, Atmane (in 3), and Marozsán.
🧩 Clutch meter: 12 straight SF wins since RG ’24; finals in every hard event entered since Aug ’24.
🛡️ Top-10 record: 16–4 since Oct ’24; only losses in that span to Alcaraz.
📈 Season snapshot (hard): 21–2 in 2025; problem-solving gears stay high even through mid-set dips.

🚀 Form carryover: strong Laver Cup (d. Zverev, Menšík) → Beijing wins over Bu, Rinderknech (TB decider), and Menšík.
🏃 Identity: relentless legs, counter-punching, elite coverage; thrives taking FH on the rise for first-strike patterns.
🧠 Self-scout: admits Sinner is his toughest matchup; title count lags vs ranking — needs a statement win at this tier.
📌 2025 hard: 26–8; confidence good, but ceiling games vs heavy hitters remain the question.