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WTA Beijing — Ajla Tomljanović vs Yuliia Starodubtseva (R1 Preview)
🧠 Form & Context
Ajla Tomljanović (No. 94)
- 🧯 Patchy summer: just 2 MD wins since Roland-Garros; retired last match in São Paulo.
- ✨ Early-season bright spots: SF Austin, SF Rabat; pushed Gauff to 3 at the US Open.
- 🛠️ Blueprint: heavy, linear FH + strong court coverage; thrives when 1st-serve% holds and BH stays firm down the line.
Yuliia Starodubtseva (No. 86)
- 🔄 Skid post-clay: 1R exits in Cincy, Cleveland, USO; only 3 MD wins since RG.
- 🏟️ Beijing memories: QF run in 2024 (six straight-set wins from qualies).
- 🧰 Tools: early-take return, compact BH, willing to step inside; 2nd serve can float under pressure.
🔍 Match Breakdown
Serve & +1: Ajla must cash short FHs and protect the second serve. Yuliia will target Ajla’s second serve and rush the BH wing with early contact.
Rally patterns: Neutral BH exchanges are close; Yuliia gains by changing direction first, Ajla by stretching points and drawing mid-court FH sitters.
Physical/tempo: Ajla’s recent retirements and three-set volume make long rallies a risk. Yuliia’s form volatility means momentum swings in either direction.
🎯 Keys to the Match
- Ajla: 1st-serve >62%, trim BH errors in ad court, finish middle with FH.
- Yuliia: Attack Ajla’s 2nd serve, take BH line early, avoid over-hitting mid-court balls.
🔮 Prediction
Slight lean: Tomljanović in 3 sets. Experience and first-strike forehand edge the key points if she holds physically; Starodubtseva’s path is front-foot returning and keeping points short.
📊 Tale of the Tape (Qualitative)
- First-strike weight: Edge Ajla (FH +1 when landing).
- Return pressure: Edge Yuliia vs 2nd serves.
- BH reliability: Slight Ajla when disciplined DTL is on.
- Fitness/volume risk: Ajla risk ↑ in long exchanges.
- Ceiling volatility: Yuliia swings higher/lower — streaky.
Pick: Tomljanović 2–1 (something like 4–6, 6–3, 6–4 feels live).
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