Safiullin vs Rune

ATP Cincinnati — Roman Safiullin vs Holger Rune

Hard Court • Form & Context Overview

🧠 Form & Context

Holger Rune

⚡ Mixed start to US Open Series – Toronto R16 loss to Popyrin after strong early rounds, but physical drop-off in deciding set reignited fitness concerns.

📈 Elite ceiling, fragile floor – When healthy, Rune produces top-tier wins (Indian Wells SF, Barcelona title), but recurring physical dips have led to premature exits.

🏆 Cincinnati history – 2024 semifinalist, beating Berrettini and Draper before falling to Tiafoe. Must defend 360 points this week.

✅ Favorable matchup – Leads H2H 2–0 (Rotterdam 2024, Brisbane 2024), winning both without major trouble.

Roman Safiullin

🔄 Season of struggle – 12–17 W–L in 2025, only one instance of back-to-back tour wins (Miami).

🎯 First-round boost – Beat returning Tabilo in straights for just his 12th win this season; looks to snap a 0–4 run vs top-20 opponents this year.

💥 Upset potential – Has big-match pedigree (past wins over Alcaraz, Tsitsipas), especially on quicker courts when serve and forehand click.

⚠ Inconsistency risk – Often fades after strong starts; needs to manage unforced error count to challenge Rune over the long haul.

🔍 Match Breakdown

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