Monday, November 9, 2026

Matsuyama challenger 2026 (Japan) 10.11.26

First-round previews from the Matsuyama Challenger (hard), with form, serve and return numbers and a full Tale of the Tape for every open match. Matches marked 🔒 are on today's PBTennis Patreon card. Times are as listed by the tournament schedule and may move with the order of play.

Hikaru Shiraishi vs Ognjen Milic

Matsuyama Challenger · First Round · 10 November · 01:00

🔒 Members-only read

This match is on today's PBTennis Patreon card. The full breakdown – form, serve and return numbers, the Tale of the Tape and our read on the match – is available to our members.

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Mili Poljicak vs Kaichi Uchida

Matsuyama Challenger · First Round · 10 November · 01:00

🧠 Form & Context

Mili Poljicak

  • 📉 Ranked No. 276 at 22, 2–8 in his last 10 but winning 49% of recent matches.
  • 🔁 Better against the first serve: 34.3% of points won, and 40% of career return points.
  • 🚀 Wins 70.0% behind his first serve (73% recently).
  • 🏆 Has won 53% of deciding sets this season and 54% over his career.
  • ⚠️ Lands only 57.5% of first serves and has converted 37% of break points recently.

Kaichi Uchida

  • 📊 Ranked No. 401 at 32, 4–6 in his last 10 but winning only 18% of recent matches.
  • 🚀 Level with Poljicak on serve: 70.5% behind the first serve and 60.3% of break points saved.
  • 🔁 Slightly better against the second serve: 51.3% of points won.
  • 🏆 Has won 50% of career tiebreaks.
  • ⚠️ Has converted only 29% of break points recently and won 40% of deciding sets this season.

🔍 Match Breakdown

A first meeting. Poljicak is the 1.44 favourite and is ranked 125 places higher.

On serve there is almost nothing between them: 70.0% vs 70.5% behind the first serve, 49.3% vs 49.2% behind the second, and 59.5% vs 60.3% of break points saved. Uchida lands slightly more first serves (58.8% vs 57.5%).

Poljicak is better against the first serve (34.3% vs 30.4%), Uchida against the second (51.3% vs 49.6%). Poljicak converts slightly more break points (42.4% vs 41.6%).

Neither comes in with strong form. Poljicak is 2–8 in his last 10 and Uchida 4–6, but Poljicak has won far more of his recent matches (49% vs 18%). He also has the better deciding-set record (53% vs 40% this season).

Two evenly matched servers. Poljicak's return against the first serve and his recent results explain the price.

📊 Tale of the Tape

MetricPoljicakUchida
Ranking276401
Age2232
Last 102–84–6
Head-to-head00
First serves in57.5%58.8%
1st-serve points won70.0%70.5%
2nd-serve points won49.3%49.2%
Break points saved59.5%60.3%
Break points converted42.4%41.6%
Return points won (career)40%38%
Tiebreak win %48%50%
Deciding-set win % (career)54%49%
Best-of-3 win %58%51%

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Naoya Honda vs Chun Hsin Tseng

Matsuyama Challenger · First Round · 10 November · 01:00

🧠 Form & Context

Naoya Honda

  • 📊 Ranked No. 584 at 20, 5–5 in his last 10 and winning 57% of recent matches.
  • 🚀 Wins 69.3% behind his first serve (73% recently).
  • 🏆 Has won 52% of career tiebreaks.
  • 🔒 Has saved 61% of break points in recent matches.
  • ⚠️ The weaker returner: 31.1% against the first serve and 39.7% of break points converted. His sample at this level is small.

Chun Hsin Tseng

  • 📈 Ranked No. 230 at 25, 5–5 in his last 10 and winning 54% of recent matches.
  • 🔁 The better returner: 33.1% against the first serve and 52.8% against the second, and 41% of career return points.
  • 🚀 Lands 59.6% of first serves and wins 51.2% behind his second.
  • 🎯 Converts 42.0% of break points (47% recently), and has saved 64% of break points recently.
  • ⚠️ Has won only 47% of career tiebreaks and 43% of deciding sets this season.

🔍 Match Breakdown

A first meeting. Tseng is the 1.25 favourite and is ranked more than 350 places higher.

Honda wins more behind the first serve (69.3% vs 67.6%), while Tseng lands more first serves (59.6% vs 56.2%), is stronger behind the second (51.2% vs 49.8%) and saves slightly more break points (59.7% vs 58.8%).

Tseng is the better returner: 33.1% against the first serve to 31.1%, and 52.8% against the second to 50.8%. He also converts more break points (42.0% vs 39.7%).

Both are 5–5 in their last 10 and have won a similar share of recent matches (57% vs 54%). Tseng has the better career records in deciding sets (52% vs 40%) and best-of-three matches (58% vs 50%).

Tseng's return and experience explain the price, in a match where holds should dominate.

📊 Tale of the Tape

MetricHondaTseng
Ranking584230
Age2025
Last 105–55–5
Head-to-head00
First serves in56.2%59.6%
1st-serve points won69.3%67.6%
2nd-serve points won49.8%51.2%
Break points saved58.8%59.7%
Break points converted39.7%42.0%
Return points won (career)39%41%
Tiebreak win %52%47%
Deciding-set win % (career)40%52%
Best-of-3 win %50%58%

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Shunsuke Nakagawa vs David Jorda Sanchis

Matsuyama Challenger · First Round · 10 November · 01:00

🧠 Form & Context

Shunsuke Nakagawa

  • 📊 Unranked at 26, 5–5 in his last 10 and winning 50% of recent matches.
  • 🚀 Lands 67% of first serves over his career.
  • 🏆 Has won 73% of career tiebreaks, from a small sample.
  • ⚠️ Has won only 29% of deciding sets this season, and converted 34% of break points recently.
  • ⚠️ Very little data at this level: his detailed comparison numbers are not available.

David Jorda Sanchis

  • 📈 Ranked No. 199 at 32, 4–6 in his last 10 but winning 60% of recent matches.
  • 🚀 Wins 69.9% behind his first serve (73% recently).
  • 🔒 Saves 58.9% of break points, and 63% in recent matches.
  • 🏆 Has won 58% of deciding sets this season and 90% of matches after taking the first set.
  • ⚠️ Lands only 58.4% of first serves and has won 48% of career tiebreaks.

🔍 Match Breakdown

A first meeting. Jorda Sanchis is the 1.22 favourite against an unranked opponent.

Detailed serve and return numbers are not available for Nakagawa, so this comparison leans on career and recent figures. Over his career he lands more first serves (67% vs 58%), while Jorda Sanchis wins more behind the first serve (70% vs 64%).

Their career return records are level (40% each), and they convert break points at the same rate over their careers (43%).

Jorda Sanchis has won more of his recent matches (60% vs 50%) and far more deciding sets this season (58% vs 29%). Nakagawa has the much better tiebreak record (73% vs 48%), but from a small sample.

Jorda Sanchis's experience and recent results explain the price. With so little data on Nakagawa, read his numbers with caution.

📊 Tale of the Tape

MetricNakagawaJorda Sanchis
Ranking–199
Age2632
Last 105–54–6
Head-to-head00
First serves in67%58.4%
1st-serve points won64%69.9%
2nd-serve points won48%48.1%
Break points saved–58.9%
Break points converted43%43.4%
Return points won (career)40%40%
Tiebreak win %73%48%
Deciding-set win % (career)41%54%
Best-of-3 win %58%55%

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Niels Mcdonald vs Koki Matsuda

Matsuyama Challenger · First Round · 10 November · 02:30

🔒 Members-only read

This match is on today's PBTennis Patreon card. The full breakdown – form, serve and return numbers, the Tale of the Tape and our read on the match – is available to our members.

Read it on Patreon

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Shintaro Imai vs Fajing Sun

Matsuyama Challenger · First Round · 10 November · 02:30

🧠 Form & Context

Shintaro Imai

  • 📊 Unranked at 33, 5–5 in his last 10 and winning 52% of recent matches.
  • 🚀 Strong first serve: 71.4% of points won, and saves 60.4% of break points.
  • 🔁 Better against the first serve: 35.1% of points won. Converts 45.7% of break points.
  • 🤝 Leads the head-to-head 2–1, winning both of their meetings in 2022.
  • ⚠️ Lands only 57.5% of first serves and has won 25% of deciding sets this season.

Fajing Sun

  • 📊 Ranked No. 287 at 30, 4–6 in his last 10 and winning 40% of recent matches.
  • 🚀 Lands 62.6% of first serves and wins 52.4% behind his second.
  • 🔁 Level against the second serve: 52.6% of points won.
  • 🏆 Has won 52% of deciding sets this season.
  • ⚠️ Has converted only 38% of break points recently, and has won 46% of career tiebreaks.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Their fourth meeting, all on hard courts. Imai leads 2–1 and won both meetings in Chiang Rai in 2022. Sun is the 1.46 favourite.

Imai wins more behind the first serve (71.4% vs 67.9%) and saves more break points (60.4% vs 58.7%), while Sun lands more first serves (62.6% vs 57.5%) and is stronger behind the second (52.4% vs 50.2%).

Imai is better against the first serve (35.1% vs 33.0%) and converts more break points (45.7% vs 43.6%). They are level against the second serve (51.9% vs 52.6%).

Imai is 5–5 in his last 10 against 4–6 and has won more of his recent matches (52% vs 40%). Sun has the better deciding-set record this season (52% vs 25%).

Close on paper. Sun's ranking explains the price, while Imai has the head-to-head and slightly better numbers on serve and return.

📊 Tale of the Tape

MetricImaiSun
Ranking–287
Age3330
Last 105–54–6
Head-to-head21
First serves in57.5%62.6%
1st-serve points won71.4%67.9%
2nd-serve points won50.2%52.4%
Break points saved60.4%58.7%
Break points converted45.7%43.6%
Return points won (career)41%41%
Tiebreak win %54%46%
Deciding-set win % (career)55%49%
Best-of-3 win %63%55%

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Rei Sakamoto vs Renta Tokuda

Matsuyama Challenger · First Round · 10 November · 02:30

🧠 Form & Context

Rei Sakamoto

  • 🔥 Ranked No. 123 at 20, 7–3 in his last 10 and winning 63% of recent matches.
  • 🚀 The stronger first serve: 71.3% of points won (74% recently).
  • 🔒 Saves 60.1% of break points.
  • 🏆 Has won 72% of deciding sets this season and 64% over his career.
  • ⚠️ A weak returner: 29.2% against the first serve and 38.3% of break points converted.

Renta Tokuda

  • 📉 Ranked No. 835 at 28, 4–6 in his last 10.
  • 🔁 The better returner: 34.2% against the first serve and 53.4% against the second.
  • 🎯 Converts 45.4% of break points.
  • 🚀 Lands 66.0% of first serves and wins 53.6% behind his second.
  • ⚠️ His recent and career numbers are not available, so read his sample with caution.

🔍 Match Breakdown

A first meeting. Sakamoto is the heavy 1.20 favourite and is ranked more than 700 places higher.

Sakamoto has the bigger first serve (71.3% vs 66.7%) and saves more break points (60.1% vs 57.5%). Tokuda lands more first serves (66.0% vs 61.8%) and wins more behind the second (53.6% vs 51.8%).

Tokuda is the clearly better returner: 34.2% against the first serve to 29.2%, and 53.4% against the second to 49.2%. He also converts far more break points (45.4% vs 38.3%).

Sakamoto is 7–3 in his last 10 against 4–6, and has won 72% of his deciding sets this season. Recent and career data for Tokuda are not available.

Sakamoto's ranking and form explain the price, but Tokuda's return numbers suggest this could be closer than it looks.

📊 Tale of the Tape

MetricSakamotoTokuda
Ranking123835
Age2028
Last 107–34–6
Head-to-head00
First serves in61.8%66.0%
1st-serve points won71.3%66.7%
2nd-serve points won51.8%53.6%
Break points saved60.1%57.5%
Break points converted38.3%45.4%
Return points won (career)37%–
Tiebreak win %52%–
Deciding-set win % (career)64%–
Best-of-3 win %57%–

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Kasidit Samrej vs Yuta Shimizu

Matsuyama Challenger · First Round · 10 November · 03:00

🧠 Form & Context

Kasidit Samrej

  • 📊 Ranked No. 409 at 25, 5–5 in his last 10 and winning 57% of recent matches. Reached the quarterfinals in Taipei last week.
  • 🚀 The bigger first serve: 72.5% of points won (75% recently).
  • 🔒 Saves 63.8% of break points, and 70% in recent matches.
  • 🏆 Has won 58% of career tiebreaks.
  • ⚠️ A weak returner: 30.7% against the first serve and 40.6% of break points converted (35% recently).

Yuta Shimizu

  • 📈 Ranked No. 405 at 27, a left-hander, 6–4 in his last 10 and winning 57% of recent matches. Reached the semifinals in Taipei last week.
  • 🔁 The better returner: 34.7% against the first serve and 52.6% against the second, and 42% of career return points.
  • 🎯 Converts 44.9% of break points.
  • 🤝 Leads the head-to-head 2–0, both in straight sets, most recently in Phan Thiet in September.
  • ⚠️ Wins 68.1% behind his first serve and saves 59.2% of break points.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Their third meeting. Shimizu leads 2–0, with two 6–4, 6–4 wins on hard courts, the latest in Phan Thiet in September. The two are ranked four places apart, and Shimizu is the 1.40 favourite.

Samrej has the bigger serve: 72.5% behind the first serve to 68.1%, and 63.8% of break points saved to 59.2%. They are level behind the second serve (49.9% vs 50.0%) and on first serves in (61.2% vs 62.0%).

Shimizu is clearly the better returner: 34.7% against the first serve to 30.7%, and 52.6% against the second to 50.4%. He also converts far more break points (44.9% vs 40.6%).

Shimizu is 6–4 in his last 10 against 5–5, and both have won 57% of their recent matches. Shimizu has the better career deciding-set record (55% vs 45%).

Expect plenty of holds. Shimizu's return and head-to-head explain the price, while Samrej's serve could take this to tiebreaks.

📊 Tale of the Tape

MetricSamrejShimizu
Ranking409405
Age2527
Last 105–56–4
Head-to-head02
First serves in61.2%62.0%
1st-serve points won72.5%68.1%
2nd-serve points won49.9%50.0%
Break points saved63.8%59.2%
Break points converted40.6%44.9%
Return points won (career)38%42%
Tiebreak win %58%56%
Deciding-set win % (career)45%55%
Best-of-3 win %58%61%

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Takuya Kumasaka vs Yi Zhou

Matsuyama Challenger · First Round · 10 November · 04:00

🧠 Form & Context

Takuya Kumasaka

  • 🔥 Ranked No. 661 at 28, 7–3 in his last 10 and winning 56% of recent matches.
  • 🔁 The far better returner: 37.0% against the first serve and 53.4% against the second, and 43% of career return points.
  • 🎯 Converts 45.5% of break points.
  • 🏆 Has won 54% of career deciding sets and 89% of matches after taking the first set.
  • ⚠️ Weaker on serve: 64.7% behind the first serve and 55.6% of break points saved. Has won 31% of deciding sets this season.

Yi Zhou

  • 📈 Ranked No. 281 at 21, 6–4 in his last 10 and winning 53% of recent matches.
  • 🚀 The much stronger first serve: 70.3% of points won (72% recently).
  • 🔒 Saves 62.0% of break points, and 68% in recent matches.
  • 🏆 Wins 50.4% behind his second serve, level with Kumasaka.
  • ⚠️ A weak returner (30.9% against the first serve). Has won only 36% of career deciding sets and 46% of tiebreaks.

🔍 Match Breakdown

They have not finished a match before: their only scheduled meeting, in 2024, ended in a walkover. Zhou is the 1.31 favourite and is ranked 380 places higher.

Zhou is the much stronger server: 70.3% behind the first serve to 64.7%, and 62.0% of break points saved to 55.6%. They are level on first serves in (61.1% vs 61.0%) and behind the second serve (50.4% vs 50.0%).

Kumasaka is the far better returner: 37.0% against the first serve to 30.9%, and 53.4% against the second to 48.6%. He also converts far more break points (45.5% vs 40.1%).

Kumasaka is 7–3 in his last 10 against 6–4 and has won slightly more of his recent matches (56% vs 53%). He also has the better career records in deciding sets (54% vs 36%) and best-of-three matches (56% vs 48%).

Server against returner. Zhou's serve and ranking explain the price, while Kumasaka's return and form make this look closer.

📊 Tale of the Tape

MetricKumasakaZhou
Ranking661281
Age2821
Last 107–36–4
Head-to-head00
First serves in61.0%61.1%
1st-serve points won64.7%70.3%
2nd-serve points won50.0%50.4%
Break points saved55.6%62.0%
Break points converted45.5%40.1%
Return points won (career)43%38%
Tiebreak win %48%46%
Deciding-set win % (career)54%36%
Best-of-3 win %56%48%

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Ryuki Matsuda vs Max Schoenhaus

Matsuyama Challenger · First Round · 10 November · 04:00

🧠 Form & Context

Ryuki Matsuda

  • 📊 Ranked No. 646 at 26, 5–5 in his last 10 and winning 59% of recent matches.
  • 🔁 The better returner: 34.6% against the first serve and 53.1% against the second, and 42% of career return points.
  • 🎯 Converts 44.2% of break points.
  • 🚀 Lands 64.1% of first serves and wins 50.7% behind his second. Has won 53% of career deciding sets.
  • ⚠️ Weaker behind his first serve (63.5%) and saves 56.0% of break points.

Max Schoenhaus

  • 📈 Ranked No. 313 at 19, with a one-handed backhand, 5–5 in his last 10 and winning 53% of recent matches.
  • 🚀 The much stronger first serve: 70.7% of points won.
  • 🔒 Saves 59.7% of break points.
  • 🏆 Has won 54% of career tiebreaks.
  • ⚠️ A modest returner (32.2% against the first serve). Has won only 39% of career deciding sets, and his sample at this level is small.

🔍 Match Breakdown

A first meeting. Schoenhaus is the heavy 1.18 favourite and is ranked more than 300 places higher.

Schoenhaus has the much bigger first serve: 70.7% of points won to 63.5%, and 59.7% of break points saved to 56.0%. Matsuda lands more first serves (64.1% vs 59.6%) and is slightly stronger behind the second (50.7% vs 49.7%).

Matsuda is the better returner: 34.6% against the first serve to 32.2%, and 53.1% against the second to 50.2%. He also converts more break points (44.2% vs 41.2%).

Both are 5–5 in their last 10, and Matsuda has won slightly more of his recent matches (59% vs 53%). He also has the far better career deciding-set record (53% vs 39%).

Schoenhaus's first serve and ranking explain the price, but Matsuda's return and record in tight finishes suggest this is closer than 1.18.

📊 Tale of the Tape

MetricR. MatsudaSchoenhaus
Ranking646313
Age2619
Last 105–55–5
Head-to-head00
First serves in64.1%59.6%
1st-serve points won63.5%70.7%
2nd-serve points won50.7%49.7%
Break points saved56.0%59.7%
Break points converted44.2%41.2%
Return points won (career)42%39%
Tiebreak win %48%54%
Deciding-set win % (career)53%39%
Best-of-3 win %54%49%

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Yosuke Watanuki vs Taro Daniel

Matsuyama Challenger · First Round · 10 November · 04:00

🧠 Form & Context

Yosuke Watanuki

  • 🔥 Ranked No. 375 at 28, 9–1 in his last 10. Won the Taipei Challenger last week.
  • 🚀 Big first serve: 73.6% of points won.
  • 🔒 Saves 60.0% of break points.
  • 🎯 Has converted 49% of break points in recent matches. Has won 55% of career deciding sets.
  • ⚠️ Lands only 55.5% of first serves and has won 40% of deciding sets this season.

Taro Daniel

  • 📈 Ranked No. 178 at 33, 4–6 in his last 10 but winning 69% of recent matches.
  • 🚀 Lands 62.4% of first serves and wins 51.2% behind his second (56% recently).
  • 🔒 Has saved 64% of break points recently and won 59% of deciding sets this season.
  • 🤝 Won their only meeting, 6–3, 6–7, 6–3 in Ningbo in 2017.
  • ⚠️ A weak returner against the first serve (30.8%), and wins 67.9% behind his own.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Their second meeting. Daniel won the first, 6–3, 6–7, 6–3 in Ningbo back in 2017. Watanuki, who won the Taipei Challenger last week, is the 1.66 favourite despite being ranked almost 200 places lower.

Watanuki has the much bigger first serve (73.6% vs 67.9%), while Daniel lands far more first serves (62.4% vs 55.5%) and is slightly stronger behind the second (51.2% vs 50.1%). They save break points at the same rate (60.0% vs 59.9%).

On return they are close. Watanuki is better against the first serve (32.5% vs 30.8%), Daniel against the second (52.2% vs 51.0%), and they convert break points at almost the same rate (42.5% vs 43.0%).

Watanuki is 9–1 in his last 10 against 4–6, but Daniel has won more of his recent matches (69% vs 55%) and more deciding sets this season (59% vs 40%).

Watanuki's title run explains the price. Daniel's steadier serve and record in tight sets can make this close.

📊 Tale of the Tape

MetricWatanukiDaniel
Ranking375178
Age2833
Last 109–14–6
Head-to-head01
First serves in55.5%62.4%
1st-serve points won73.6%67.9%
2nd-serve points won50.1%51.2%
Break points saved60.0%59.9%
Break points converted42.5%43.0%
Return points won (career)40%39%
Tiebreak win %52%52%
Deciding-set win % (career)55%49%
Best-of-3 win %61%58%

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Rio Noguchi vs Daniel Michalski

Matsuyama Challenger · First Round · 10 November · 04:30

🧠 Form & Context

Rio Noguchi

  • 📊 Ranked No. 219 at 27, 4–6 in his last 10 and winning 44% of recent matches.
  • 🚀 Lands 66.0% of first serves and saves 56.9% of break points.
  • 🏆 Has won 58% of deciding sets this season and 57% over his career.
  • 🔁 Strong against the second serve: 54.1% of points won.
  • ⚠️ Has converted only 39% of break points recently, and has won 49% of career tiebreaks.

Daniel Michalski

  • 🔥 Ranked No. 305 at 26, 8–2 in his last 10 and winning 66% of recent matches.
  • 🔁 The better returner: 38.0% against the first serve and 54.7% against the second, and 44% of career return points.
  • 🎯 Converts 47.9% of break points, and 53% in recent matches.
  • 🏆 Has won 64% of career tiebreaks and 63% of best-of-three matches.
  • ⚠️ Lands only 60.5% of first serves.

🔍 Match Breakdown

A first meeting. Noguchi is ranked 86 places higher and is the 1.72 favourite, with Michalski at 2.00.

On serve they are close: 65.3% vs 65.2% behind the first serve, 50.1% vs 51.8% behind the second, and 56.9% vs 56.4% of break points saved. Noguchi lands more first serves (66.0% vs 60.5%).

Michalski is the better returner: 38.0% against the first serve to 33.5%, and 54.7% against the second to 54.1%. He also converts more break points (47.9% vs 45.1%, and 53% vs 39% recently).

The form is clearly with Michalski: 8–2 in his last 10 against 4–6, and 66% of recent matches won against 44%. He also has the far better tiebreak record (64% vs 49%).

Noguchi's ranking explains the price, but Michalski's return, form and tiebreak record all point the other way.

📊 Tale of the Tape

MetricNoguchiMichalski
Ranking219305
Age2726
Last 104–68–2
Head-to-head00
First serves in66.0%60.5%
1st-serve points won65.3%65.2%
2nd-serve points won50.1%51.8%
Break points saved56.9%56.4%
Break points converted45.1%47.9%
Return points won (career)42%44%
Tiebreak win %49%64%
Deciding-set win % (career)57%56%
Best-of-3 win %58%63%

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Monastir 1 challenger 2026 (Tunisia) 10.11.26

First-round previews from the Monastir 1 Challenger (hard), with form, serve and return numbers and a full Tale of the Tape for every open...