More second-round previews from the Knoxville Challenger (indoor hard), with form, serve and return numbers and a full Tale of the Tape for every open match. Matches marked 🔒 are on today's PBTennis Patreon card. Times are as listed by the tournament schedule and may move with the order of play.
Ozan Baris vs Michael Zheng
🧠 Form & Context
Ozan Baris
- 📈 Ranked No. 397 at 22, 4–6 in his last 10 but winning 67% of recent matches. Beat Tarvet in round one.
- 🎯 Lands more first serves: 63.1%.
- 🔁 Slightly better against the first serve: 33.4% of points won.
- 🎲 Has won 61% of his tiebreaks and 67% of deciding sets this season.
- ⚠️ Wins 67.8% behind the first serve and converts only 39.9% of break points.
Michael Zheng
- 📊 Ranked No. 100 at 22, 4–6 in his last 10 and winning 60% of recent matches. Beat Hussey in round one.
- 🚀 The stronger server: 72.2% on the first serve (74% recently) and 51.3% on the second.
- 🔒 Saves 62.6% of break points and converts 43.9%.
- 🏆 Has won 64% of best-of-three matches and 92% after taking the first set.
- ⚠️ Lands only 58.1% of first serves and has won just 40% of his tiebreaks.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting, after both won their opening matches. Zheng is the 1.30 favourite and is ranked almost 300 places higher.
Zheng is the stronger server: 72.2% behind the first serve to 67.8%, 51.3% behind the second to 50.0%, and 62.6% of break points saved to 59.2%. Baris lands more first serves (63.1% vs 58.1%).
On return there is little in it: Baris is slightly better against the first serve (33.4% vs 32.4%) and Zheng against the second (52.6% vs 51.1%). Zheng converts more break points (43.9% vs 39.9%).
Both are 4–6 in their last 10. Baris has won more of his recent matches (67% vs 60%) and has a much better tiebreak record (61% vs 40%).
Zheng's serve explains the price indoors, but if this goes to tiebreaks Baris has the better record.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Baris | Zheng |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 397 | 100 |
| Age | 22 | 22 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 63.1% | 58.1% |
| 1st-serve points won | 67.8% | 72.2% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 50.0% | 51.3% |
| Break points saved | 59.2% | 62.6% |
| Break points converted | 39.9% | 43.9% |
| Return points won (career) | 40% | 41% |
| Tiebreak win % | 61% | 40% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 53% | 59% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 57% | 64% |
Stefan Kozlov vs Braden Shick
🧠 Form & Context
Stefan Kozlov
- 🔥 Ranked No. 205 at 28, 7–3 in his last 10 and winning 54% of recent matches. Beat Galarneau in round one.
- 🤝 Beat Shick 6–4, 6–1 indoors in Charlottesville last week.
- 🔁 The better returner: 34.4% against the first serve and 53.1% against the second, and 42% of career return points.
- 🎯 Lands more first serves: 61.0%.
- ⚠️ The weaker server (66.4% on the first, 48.5% on the second) and has won 48% of his tiebreaks.
Braden Shick
- 📊 Ranked No. 206 at 23, 4–6 in his last 10 but winning 59% of recent matches. Beat Andrade in round one.
- 🚀 The stronger server: 71.2% on the first serve and 51.3% on the second.
- 🔒 Saves 59.4% of break points.
- 🏆 Has won 74% of deciding sets this season, 57% of tiebreaks and 93% of matches after taking the first set.
- ⚠️ Lands only 58.1% of first serves. His sample at this level is small.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A rematch of last week's meeting in Charlottesville, which Kozlov won 6–4, 6–1. Only one ranking place separates them, and Kozlov is the 1.40 favourite.
Shick is the stronger server: 71.2% behind the first serve to 66.4%, 51.3% behind the second to 48.5%, and 59.4% of break points saved to 57.5%. Kozlov lands more first serves (61.0% vs 58.1%).
Kozlov is the better returner: 34.4% against the first serve to 33.1% and 53.1% against the second to 51.6%. Break points converted are level (42.4% vs 42.7%).
Kozlov is 7–3 in his last 10 against 4–6, but Shick has won more of his recent matches (59% vs 54%) and far more deciding sets this season (74% vs 54%).
Kozlov has the form and last week's win, Shick has the serve and the better record in tight finishes.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Kozlov | Shick |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 205 | 206 |
| Age | 28 | 23 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Head-to-head | 1 | 0 |
| First serves in | 61.0% | 58.1% |
| 1st-serve points won | 66.4% | 71.2% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 48.5% | 51.3% |
| Break points saved | 57.5% | 59.4% |
| Break points converted | 42.4% | 42.7% |
| Return points won (career) | 42% | 40% |
| Tiebreak win % | 48% | 57% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 60% | 63% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 57% | 64% |
Filip Jeff Planinsek vs Alastair Gray
🧠 Form & Context
Filip Jeff Planinsek
- 🔥 Ranked No. 510 at 25, 7–3 in his last 10 and winning 64% of recent matches. Beat Kimhi in round one.
- 🚀 A big first serve: 73.0% of points won (74% recently).
- 🔒 Saves 61.3% of break points (64% recently).
- 🏆 Has won 65% of deciding sets this season and 58% over his career.
- ⚠️ Lands only 57.2% of first serves, converts 39.4% of break points and has won 46% of his tiebreaks.
Alastair Gray
- 📈 Ranked No. 270 at 28, 7–3 in his last 10 and winning 58% of recent matches. Beat Darwin Blanch in round one.
- 🚀 Matches Planinsek behind the first serve (73.1%) and lands more of them (62.4%).
- 🔒 Saves 62.5% of break points and converts 42.6%.
- 🏆 Has won 65% of best-of-three matches and 53% of tiebreaks.
- ⚠️ Has won 54% of career deciding sets, fewer than Planinsek.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting, after both won their opening matches. Gray is the 1.40 favourite and is ranked 240 places higher.
Two big servers: 73.0% vs 73.1% behind the first serve. Gray lands more first serves (62.4% vs 57.2%), is slightly stronger behind the second (50.2% vs 48.7%) and saves slightly more break points (62.5% vs 61.3%).
On return they are level against the first serve (34.1% vs 34.0%) and close against the second (49.9% vs 50.2%). Gray converts more break points (42.6% vs 39.4%).
Both are 7–3 in their last 10. Planinsek has won more recent matches (64% vs 58%) and more deciding sets this season (65% vs 58%).
Very few breaks likely indoors. Gray has the slight edge on paper, Planinsek has the momentum.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Planinsek | Gray |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 510 | 270 |
| Age | 25 | 28 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 57.2% | 62.4% |
| 1st-serve points won | 73.0% | 73.1% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 48.7% | 50.2% |
| Break points saved | 61.3% | 62.5% |
| Break points converted | 39.4% | 42.6% |
| Return points won (career) | 40% | 40% |
| Tiebreak win % | 46% | 53% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 58% | 54% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 58% | 65% |
Marcos Giron vs Abedallah Shelbayh
🧠 Form & Context
Marcos Giron
- 📊 Ranked No. 94 at 33, 2–8 in his last 10 and winning 37% of recent matches. Beat Kasnikowski in round one.
- 🚀 The stronger server: 71.7% on the first serve and 51.2% on the second.
- 🔒 Saves 60.5% of break points.
- 🎯 Lands more first serves: 61.5%.
- ⚠️ A weak returner (29.7% against the first serve) and has won only 36% of deciding sets this season.
Abedallah Shelbayh
- 📈 Ranked No. 305 at 22, a left-hander, 4–6 in his last 10 and winning 51% of recent matches. Beat Wendelken in round one.
- 🔁 The better returner: 32.4% against the first serve and 52.1% against the second.
- 🎯 Converts 42.7% of break points.
- 🏆 Has won 54% of career deciding sets.
- ⚠️ Wins only 67.8% behind his first serve.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting, after both won their opening matches. Giron is the 1.40 favourite and is ranked 211 places higher.
Giron is the stronger server: 71.7% behind the first serve to 67.8%, 51.2% behind the second to 50.0%, and 60.5% of break points saved to 59.3%.
Shelbayh is the better returner: 32.4% against the first serve to 29.7%, 52.1% against the second to 50.3%, and 42.7% of break points converted to 39.2%.
Giron's form is poor: 2–8 in his last 10 and 37% of recent matches won, against Shelbayh's 4–6 and 51%. Shelbayh also has the better deciding-set record (54% vs 47% over his career).
Giron has the serve and the experience, but his recent results make this closer than the ranking gap suggests.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Giron | Shelbayh |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 94 | 305 |
| Age | 33 | 22 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 61.5% | 58.8% |
| 1st-serve points won | 71.7% | 67.8% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 51.2% | 50.0% |
| Break points saved | 60.5% | 59.3% |
| Break points converted | 39.2% | 42.7% |
| Return points won (career) | 38% | 40% |
| Tiebreak win % | 51% | 49% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 47% | 54% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 57% | 55% |
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