Day 2 of the Nitto ATP Finals in Turin opens the Ivan Lendl Group. Carlos Alcaraz arrives on a nine-match winning run and faces debutant Frances Tiafoe, who has lost his last three. In the night session, 2020 champion Daniil Medvedev meets home favourite Flavio Cobolli, who hasn't played since retiring injured in Vienna. Here's our breakdown of both matches.
ATP Finals · Round Robin · 14:00 CET
Carlos Alcaraz vs Frances Tiafoe
Market odds: Alcaraz 1.10 | Tiafoe 8.10
Form & Context
Alcaraz is the form player of the autumn. He won Vienna, then Paris, where he beat Shelton 7-6 7-5 in last Sunday's final. That makes nine wins in a row and five titles this year, including the Australian Open. He is 9-0 in completed indoor matches this season, and he was runner-up here last year. Tiafoe is making his ATP Finals debut at 28, at a career-high No. 8, after a season that included the Halle title and a US Open semi-final. But he arrives on a three-match losing run. He lost to Davidovich Fokina in Shanghai, then to Musetti in Vienna and Halys in Paris, both indoors and both as the favourite. He has won only one of his four completed indoor matches this year and hasn't played for 12 days. Their history is closer than the odds suggest: both of their Grand Slam meetings went to five sets.
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Daniil Medvedev vs Flavio Cobolli
Market odds: Medvedev 1.29 | Cobolli 4.01
Form & Context
Medvedev won this event in 2020 and has four titles this year, the latest in Almaty. He reached the Vienna semi-finals, where he lost 4-6 6-7 to Alcaraz. Then he lost 4-6 4-6 to Buse in his first match in Paris as a 1.15 favourite. He hasn't played for 12 days. Cobolli is making his debut on home soil after the best season of his career: the Acapulco title, a Roland Garros final and a Cincinnati semi-final. His fitness is the big question. He retired against Berrettini in Vienna on 29 October, trailing 2-5 in the first set with a muscle strain, then withdrew from Paris with a muscle injury. This is his first match in 18 days.
Tale of the Tape
- Medvedev: holds 84.2% of service games and breaks in 27.9% of return games. He wins 54.0% of points on his opponent's second serve, one of the best returns on tour. The weak spots are his own second serve (48.5% of points won) and tiebreaks (35.7%). He has lost only once in 37 best-of-three matches this year after winning the first set
- Cobolli: holds 80.0% and breaks 20.0% of the time. He lands only 56.1% of first serves, one of the lowest rates on tour, but wins 61.8% of tiebreaks. He is 3-3 in completed indoor matches this year
- Form score: Medvedev 69.4 vs Cobolli 53.2, a clear edge
Our Read
The market makes Medvedev a 76% favourite, and we land on the same number. He has the better form and the better return game, and Cobolli's fitness is a real doubt. But Medvedev's last match was a straight-sets loss as a heavy favourite, so we won't back him before the match. Cobolli is too far behind on form, and he hasn't played since retiring injured, so we won't back him either. One number stands out: as a favourite in this price range, Medvedev has gone to three sets in only 9 of 31 best-of-three matches this year. That points to a straight-sets win if he is sharp, but the market already prices that line about right. As always, watch the first set. Medvedev almost never loses after winning it.
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