Second-round previews from the Lisbon Challenger on clay, with form, serve and return numbers and a full Tale of the Tape for every match. Times are as listed by the tournament schedule and may move with the order of play.
Max Alcala Gurri vs Elmer Moller
🧠 Form & Context
Max Alcala Gurri
- 📈 Ranked No. 132 at 24, 7–3 in his last 10 and winning 76% of recent matches.
- 🔁 An outstanding returner: 47% of return points won and 48.5% of break points converted.
- 🎾 Lands 71.2% of first serves.
- 🏆 Has won 61% of deciding sets this season.
- ⚠️ Weak behind his serve: 61.4% on first-serve points, 44.5% on second.
Elmer Moller
- 📊 Ranked No. 163 at 23, 6–4 in his last 10.
- ⚔️ Leads the head-to-head 2–0, with straight-set wins in Menorca and Montemar in 2025.
- 🎾 The stronger server: 65.8% on first-serve points and 58.4% of break points saved.
- 🏆 Wins 55% of tiebreaks, with a 64% career record in best-of-three.
- ⚠️ Only 44% of deciding sets won this season.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A third meeting, and the market can barely split them: Alcala Gurri is a narrow favourite at 1.80, but Moller has won both previous matches in straight sets.
This looks like a returners' match. Both win plenty of return points – Alcala Gurri 47% over his career, Moller 45% – so expect plenty of breaks.
Moller is the more reliable server: more than four percentage points better behind his first serve, and he saves more break points (58.4% vs 53.7%).
Alcala Gurri has the better form (76% of recent matches won against 53%) and has won 61% of deciding sets this season.
Alcala Gurri has the form and the return; Moller has the serve and the head-to-head. A genuine coin-flip.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Alcala Gurri | Moller |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 132 | 163 |
| Age | 24 | 23 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 2 |
| First serves in | 71.2% | 62.5% |
| 1st-serve points won | 61.4% | 65.8% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 44.5% | 46.9% |
| Break points saved | 53.7% | 58.4% |
| Break points converted | 48.5% | 46.4% |
| Return points won (career) | 47% | 45% |
| Tiebreak win % | 49% | 55% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 49% | 51% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 62% | 64% |
Thiago Moura Monteiro vs Henrique Rocha
🧠 Form & Context
Thiago Moura Monteiro
- 📊 Ranked No. 236 at 32, left-handed, 6–4 in his last 10.
- 🚀 The stronger serve: 71.2% on first-serve points and 52.2% on second.
- 🔒 Saves 62.4% of break points, 64% recently.
- 🏆 Has won 56% of deciding sets this season.
- ⚠️ Weak on return: 37% of return points won.
Henrique Rocha
- 🔥 Ranked No. 105 at 22, 8–2 in his last 10.
- ⚔️ Won their only meeting, 6–0 6–7 6–3 in Brasilia in March.
- 🔁 The better returner: 42% of return points won and 43.1% of break points converted.
- 🏠 Playing at home in Lisbon.
- ⚠️ Saves only 57.4% of break points, and has won 45% of deciding sets this season.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A rematch from March, when Rocha won in three sets in Brasilia. The home favourite is priced at 1.50.
Moura Monteiro has the clear serve edge: almost four percentage points better behind his first serve, stronger on the second, and much better at saving break points (62.4% vs 57.4%).
Rocha is the far better returner – 42% of return points won against 37% – and that is the key to this match.
Their career tight-set numbers are identical (54% of tiebreaks, 53% of deciding sets), but Moura Monteiro has been the better finisher this season (56% vs 45%).
Rocha has the form, the ranking and the home crowd. Moura Monteiro's serve makes him a dangerous opponent – closer than the price suggests.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Moura Monteiro | Rocha |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 236 | 105 |
| Age | 32 | 22 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 1 |
| First serves in | 64.4% | 60.5% |
| 1st-serve points won | 71.2% | 67.4% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 52.2% | 50.6% |
| Break points saved | 62.4% | 57.4% |
| Break points converted | 40.5% | 43.1% |
| Return points won (career) | 37% | 42% |
| Tiebreak win % | 54% | 54% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 53% | 53% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 58% | 58% |
Matej Dodig vs Marco Cecchinato
🧠 Form & Context
Matej Dodig
- 🔥 Ranked No. 138 at 21, 8–2 in his last 10 and winning 71% of recent matches.
- ⚔️ Won their only meeting, 6–1 1–6 6–3 in Barletta in 2025.
- 🚀 Serving brilliantly recently: 75% on first-serve points.
- 🏆 Has won 60% of deciding sets over his career and 63% this season.
- ⚠️ Lands only 59.8% of first serves.
Marco Cecchinato
- 📊 Ranked No. 164 at 34, a former Roland Garros semi-finalist with a one-handed backhand, 4–6 in his last 10.
- 🎾 Lands 65.1% of first serves and wins 51.5% on second-serve points.
- 🏆 Wins 54% of tiebreaks.
- ⚠️ Converting only 36% of break points recently.
- ⚠️ Only 44% of deciding sets won this season.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A rematch of a three-set match in Barletta last year, which Dodig won. He is the favourite at 1.36.
Dodig has the bigger first serve (70.8% vs 68.3% won) and has been winning 75% of first-serve points recently.
Cecchinato lands more first serves and is slightly stronger on the second, but neither returns well (40% vs 39% of return points), so holds should dominate.
Dodig has the better tight-set record – 56% of tiebreaks and 60% of deciding sets, against 54% and 52% – and much the better form.
Dodig has the form, the serve and the head-to-head. Cecchinato's experience on clay is his best weapon.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Dodig | Cecchinato |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 138 | 164 |
| Age | 21 | 34 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Head-to-head | 1 | 0 |
| First serves in | 59.8% | 65.1% |
| 1st-serve points won | 70.8% | 68.3% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 50.4% | 51.5% |
| Break points saved | 60.8% | 59.9% |
| Break points converted | 40.7% | 41.3% |
| Return points won (career) | 40% | 39% |
| Tiebreak win % | 56% | 54% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 60% | 52% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 63% | 57% |
Marco Trungelliti vs Carlo Alberto Caniato
🧠 Form & Context
Marco Trungelliti
- 📊 Ranked No. 90 at 36, 6–4 in his last 10.
- 🔁 Slightly the better returner: 41% of return points won.
- 🏆 Strong in deciding sets: 61% won over his career, 55% this season.
- 📊 59% career record in best-of-three.
- ⚠️ Winning only 47% of recent matches.
Carlo Alberto Caniato
- 📈 Ranked No. 314 at 20, 7–3 in his last 10.
- 🚀 The bigger serve: 70.3% on first-serve points and 53.4% on second – 75% and 55% recently.
- 🔓 Converts 43.5% of break points.
- ⚠️ Only 43% of tiebreaks and 38% of deciding sets won over his career, 31% of deciders this season.
- 📏 A small sample of matches at this level.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting between a 36-year-old veteran and a 20-year-old on a 7–3 run. Trungelliti is the favourite at 1.50.
Caniato has the clearly better serve – 70.3% on first-serve points against 68.2%, and 53.4% on second against 49.4% – and has been even stronger recently.
On return there is little in it (41% vs 39% of return points), so this should be a match of holds.
Under pressure the experience shows: Trungelliti has won 61% of deciding sets over his career against Caniato's 38%, and has the better tiebreak record (51% vs 43%).
Caniato has the serve and the momentum; Trungelliti has the ranking and the clutch record. Closer than the price suggests.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Trungelliti | Caniato |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 90 | 314 |
| Age | 36 | 20 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 57.8% | 61.8% |
| 1st-serve points won | 68.2% | 70.3% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 49.4% | 53.4% |
| Break points saved | 59.7% | 59.4% |
| Break points converted | 41.8% | 43.5% |
| Return points won (career) | 41% | 39% |
| Tiebreak win % | 51% | 43% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 61% | 38% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 59% | 55% |
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