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ATP Stockholm — Lorenzo Sonego vs Aleksandar Kovacevic
🧠 Form & Context
Lorenzo Sonego
- ✅ Clean R1 over Arthur Fery (6–4, 6–2).
- 🎢 Streaky season, but the ceiling is real (AO QF; Wimbledon R16).
- 🏟️ Indoors 2025: 3–2 — serve-first, tidy scoreboard management.
Aleksandar Kovacevic
- 🔁 R1 comeback: from a set down to 4–0 up in the third vs Ugo Carabelli.
- 🔥 Indoors has been his lane in 2025: 13–3, Montpellier runner-up (d. Bublik & Rublev).
- 🤝 H2H: first meeting (0–0).
🔍 Match Breakdown
Serve patterns: Both are first-strike operators, but Sonego’s deuce-court wide serve + immediate forehand is a touch more repeatable under pressure. Kovacevic’s first ball is heavier; the second can sit up if he’s rushed.
Baseline patterns: Sonego changes height/pace well and targets inside-in forehand finishes. Kovacevic is most dangerous taking time away on the rise; the backhand can leak when stretched wide.
Return & pressure points: Margins are thin and tiebreaks are live. Sonego has been the steadier breaker/closer this season; Kovacevic’s best path is to front-run behind a high first-serve clip and attack second-serve looks early.
Intangibles: Experience edge to Sonego in ATP late-round reps; indoor form edge to Kovacevic. Expect serve-heavy sets with the odd short burst of baseline pressure deciding things.
🔮 Prediction
Sonego’s all-court poise and slightly sturdier rally tolerance give him a hair of separation if this gets tight. Kovacevic’s indoor résumé keeps the upset very live — especially if he lives north of ~65% first serves — but the Italian’s closing experience is a small tie-breaker.
Pick: Sonego in 3 sets (tiebreak possible).
📊 Tale of the Tape (Qualitative)
| Category | Sonego | Kovacevic |
|---|---|---|
| Serve Pattern | Deuce-wide + FH first strike; repeatable under pressure | Heavier 1st; 2nd can sit up if rushed |
| Baseline Shape | Height/tempo mix; inside-in finishing | Early-take timing; BH leaks when stretched |
| Return & TB Nerves | Steadier in breakers/closing | Best when front-running |
| Form Edge (Indoors) | Solid, 3–2 this year | Strong, 13–3 with Montpellier F |
| Intangibles | More late-round reps on ATP | Momentum under the roof |
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