Naomi Osaka vs Greet Minnen

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Naomi Osaka vs Greet Minnen — US Open R1 Preview

WTA US Open Hard Court Round 1

🧠 Form & Context

Naomi Osaka (No. 24, age 27)

• 🇯🇵 Four-time major champion; two US Open crowns (2018, 2020).
• 📊 2025: 27–13 (16–6 hard).
• 🔥 Recent: Montreal finalist (d. Svitolina, Ostapenko, Tauson; lost to Mboko).
• 🏟️ US Open: 7–1 in openers; titles + R16 (2019).
• 💡 Style: Big serve, first-strike aggression, comfortable under NYC lights.

Greet Minnen (No. 106, age 28)

• 🇧🇪 Solid baseliner; career-high No. 59.
• 📉 2025: 30–15 overall but only six tour-level MD wins.
• ⚠️ Slams: 6–13 in R1s lifetime, 0–2 this year.
• 🏟️ US Open: Best = R2 (2024).
• 💡 Strengths: Steady backhand, competent on grass/indoors; limited top-end power vs elite hitters.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Momentum: Osaka rides Montreal confidence and looks like a threat again. Minnen enters off early losses in Cleveland & Cincinnati.

Head-to-head: Osaka leads 1–0 (Madrid 2024, 6–4 6–1) — a one-way traffic template that should translate even better in New York.

Tactics: Minnen can extend rallies but lacks the pace to consistently absorb and counter Osaka’s first strike. If Naomi’s first-serve percentage holds, she should control scoreboard pressure from the jump.

Mental factor: Osaka’s Slam intent feels renewed; Minnen’s early-round Slam record has been a hurdle.

🔮 Prediction

Osaka’s power patterns and comfort on Ashe-adjacent courts point to a clean start. Minnen can scrap and make passages sticky if Osaka’s level dips, but the favorite’s serve/return combo should keep this on script.

Pick: Osaka in 2 sets — likely in the 6–3, 6–2 range.

📊 Tale of the Tape (Qualitative)

• Form trend: Edge Osaka (Montreal final) vs Minnen (early losses).
• Surface fit: NYC hard accentuates Osaka’s first-strike tennis.
• Serve/return: Clear serve power to Osaka; Minnen steadier in rallies but lacks finishing weight.
• Experience: Osaka’s USO pedigree vs Minnen’s R1 struggles.
• H2H: 1–0 Osaka; prior meeting was lopsided.