Alexei Popyrin vs Emil Ruusuvuori

🎾 US Open Betting Notebook
Full match breakdowns & value lines on Patreon.

Alexei Popyrin vs Emil Ruusuvuori — US Open 1R Preview

ATP US Open Hard Court First Round

🧠 Form & Context

Alexei Popyrin (No. 36, age 26)

• 🇦🇺 Power-first tennis: big serve + forehand, loves quick points on hard.
• 📊 2025: 17–20 (6–9 on hard). Toronto QF run with wins over Medvedev & Rune; pushed Zverev to three sets in the QF.
• 🏟️ Slam note: 2024 US Open R16 after stunning Djokovic in R3.
• ⚠️ Points to defend: last year’s R16 here adds a bit of scoreboard pressure.

Emil Ruusuvuori (No. 752, age 26)

• 🇫🇮 Former top-40 level derailed by health/mental-health breaks; working back via protected ranking and Challengers.
• 📊 2025: 6–9 mostly below tour level; form dipped with lopsided losses.
• 🏟️ Slams: sparse last two seasons; limited recent best-of-five mileage.
• ⚠️ Rhythm & confidence still rebuilding; step up in class here is significant.

🔍 Match Breakdown

H2H: Popyrin leads 1–0 (Cincinnati 2023, 6–2, 1–6, 6–3). That meeting came when Emil was far closer to peak rhythm.

This version of Popyrin brings top-20 ball striking when the first serve lands, and Toronto showed he can handle elite pace over multiple rounds. Ruusuvuori’s return timing and rally tolerance at tour level aren’t yet back to pre-layoff standards, which makes prying early breaks off Popyrin tough. In longer exchanges, Alexei’s heavier forehand should dictate patterns, especially into Emil’s backhand corner after a body serve.

Tactical keys: (1) Popyrin keep first-serve % north of “pressure line” and finish at net; (2) Emil gamble earlier on second-serve returns to shorten points; (3) manage scoreboard waves—if Popyrin front-runs, this can snowball quickly in best-of-five.

🔮 Prediction

The gap in 2025 readiness is wide. Unless Popyrin’s first-serve level dips for long stretches, Ruusuvuori’s current match rhythm likely isn’t enough to extend this.

Pick: Popyrin 3–0 (with one tight set in the mix).

📊 Tale of the Tape (Qualitative)

• Serve edge: Clear Popyrin advantage on hard.
• Baseline weight: Popyrin’s FH heaviness vs Emil’s rebuilt timing.
• Form & confidence: Popyrin trending up after Toronto; Emil still searching.
• Best-of-five factor: Leans Popyrin given current conditioning & reps.
• H2H context: Prior W&S win supports matchup fit for Alexei.