Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasija Sevastova

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Alexandrova vs Sevastova — US Open 1R Preview

WTA US Open Hard Court Round 1

🧠 Form & Context

Ekaterina Alexandrova (No. 12, age 30)

• 🇷🇺 Enjoying one of the most consistent seasons of her career.
• 📊 2025 record: 35–18 (10–10 on hard).
• 🏆 Highlights: Linz champion (Feb), Monterrey finalist just days ago, Roland-Garros & Wimbledon 4R.
• 🏟️ US Open: 6 straight 1R wins but never beyond R3 (best = R3 in 2023 & 2024).
• 💡 Strengths: Flat, penetrating groundstrokes + underrated serve.
• ⚠️ Weakness: Can struggle when her rhythm is disrupted, especially at Slams.

Anastasija Sevastova (No. 233, age 35)

• 🇱🇻 Former top-15 player, remembered for US Open QFs in 2016 & 2017, SF in 2018.
• 📊 2025 record: 9–9 (4–2 on hard since April comeback).
• 🔥 Recent: Montreal R16 (beat Pegula, Linette), Cincinnati R2.
• 🏟️ US Open pedigree: 3x QF + 1x SF — one of her favorite Slam stages.
• 💡 Strengths: Crafty mix of spins, drop shots, angles.
• ⚠️ Weakness: Long injury/maternity breaks, inconsistency in 3-setters, fitness questions at 35.

🔍 Match Breakdown

• H2H: First meeting.
• Momentum: Alexandrova rides Monterrey finalist form; Sevastova is rebuilding with confidence after notable wins in Canada.
• Tactics: Alexandrova will try to hit through Sevastova with flat pace; Sevastova’s variety aims to break that timing and force awkward contact.
• Context: Alexandrova has underwhelmed in New York historically, yet she’s steadier in 2025. Sevastova’s NYC comfort is real, but she’s no longer in peak prime.

🔮 Prediction

There’s upset potential if Sevastova rediscovers her Montreal level and keeps rallies funky with slices and short angles. Still, Alexandrova’s current baseline weight and serving level make her the likelier winner over the long haul.

Pick: Alexandrova in three sets — Sevastova’s guile may nick a set, but the heavier game should carry the day.

📊 Tale of the Tape (Qualitative)

• Form trend: Edge Alexandrova (recent final) vs Sevastova (encouraging but stop-start).
• Surface fit: Power on hard favors Alexandrova; Sevastova relies on variety.
• First-strike vs craft: Alexandrova first-strike pace ⟷ Sevastova change-ups and touch.
• Mileage/fitness: Edge Alexandrova; Sevastova’s three-set stamina is a question.
• NYC factor: Sevastova’s best Slam memories come here — intangible boost.