Katie Boulter vs Marta Kostyuk

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Boulter vs Kostyuk — US Open 1R Preview

US Open Hard Court Round 1

🧠 Form & Context

Katie Boulter (No. 48, age 29)

• 🇬🇧 Uneven summer swing: R16 in Cleveland, but early exits in Montreal, Cincinnati, and Washington.
• 📊 2025 record: 17–15 (5–8 on hard). Best run = Paris 125K title, plus R3 at Indian Wells.
• 🏟️ US Open best = R3 (2023). Fell in R2 last year.
• 💡 Strengths: Flat hitting, strong serve, aggressive first-strike tennis.
• ⚠️ Weakness: Inconsistent at Slams — just three R3s in 22 majors.

Marta Kostyuk (No. 28, age 23)

• 🇺🇦 Streaky performer. Montreal QF (d. Vondrousova & Kasatkina) showed her upside, but retired in Cincinnati with a wrist injury.
• 📊 2025 record: 21–17 (14–10 on hard). Slam season: R3 AO, R1 RG, R1 Wimbledon.
• 🏟️ US Open best = R3 (2020 & 2024).
• 💡 Strengths: Baseline power, strong return game, thrives in extended rallies.
• ⚠️ Weakness: Physically fragile, mentally volatile in tight matches.

🔍 Match Breakdown

• H2H: Boulter leads 1–0 (2024 San Diego final, came from a set down).
• Kostyuk’s risk: Wrist injury could limit forehand aggression.
• Boulter’s chance: Flat pace can rush Kostyuk if she’s tentative. But hasn’t won B2B hard-court matches all season.
• Key factor: Fitness. If healthy, Kostyuk’s rally tolerance makes her favorite. If compromised, Boulter has a genuine shot.

🔮 Prediction

On form and ceiling, Kostyuk should edge this. Her baseline strength and returning game can outlast Boulter. But fitness questions loom large. If her wrist holds up, she wins in three sets. If it flares, the Brit could score another upset.

Pick: Kostyuk in 3 sets — with injury risk as the wild card.