Daniel Altmaier vs Hamad Medjedovic

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Altmaier vs Medjedovic — US Open 1R Preview

ATP US Open Hard Court Round 1

🧠 Form & Context

Daniel Altmaier (No. 56, age 26)

• 🇩🇪 Solid baseliner with proven Slam upset pedigree.
• 📊 2025: 26–28 overall, 7–13 on hard.
• 🔥 Highlight: Roland Garros R16 (d. Fritz & Medjedovic).
• 📉 Recent: 5 losses in last 7; starts strong then fades (e.g., Cancun vs Buse, Toronto vs Watanuki).
• 🏟️ US Open: 1–2 (R2 in 2023; R1 exits in 2022 & 2024).
• ⚠️ Weakness: Patchy outside clay; struggles to stack wins at non-RG Slams.

Hamad Medjedovic (No. 57, age 22)

• 🇷🇸 Next-gen shot-maker with big serve + forehand.
• 📊 2025: 26–14 overall, 6–3 on hard.
• 🔥 Recent: Cincinnati R3 (lost to Alcaraz), Winston-Salem SF.
• 🏟️ Slams: 6 appearances, 5 R1 exits (incl. USO 2024).
• ⚠️ Durability: Hamstring issues + Wimbledon retirement raise Bo5 questions.
• 💡 Ceiling: Wins over Medvedev, Tsitsipas, Khachanov in 2025 show top-tier upside.

🔍 Match Breakdown

• H2H: 1–1 in 2025 — Medjedovic (Marseille QF), Altmaier (Roland Garros R3).
• Tactical edge: Altmaier stretches exchanges, counter-punches, makes you hit extra balls. Medjedovic plays first-strike tennis with heavy serve + FH, but needs to manage fuel over Bo5.
• Momentum: Medjedovic rides a strong U.S. swing; Altmaier tries to halt a tough summer slide.
• X-factor: Altmaier’s fitness base in Bo5 vs Medjedovic’s firepower. If the Serb doesn’t land early haymakers, grind could tilt German-ward.

🔮 Prediction

Classic clash of explosiveness vs grind. Over five sets, Altmaier’s resilience and rally length can probe the Serb’s durability, but Medjedovic’s recent level suggests he finally converts ATP form into Slam progress.

Pick: Medjedovic in four sets — Altmaier hangs tough, yet the first-strike weight should carry unless fitness betrays the favorite.

📊 Tale of the Tape (Qualitative)

• Serve/first strike: Edge Medjedovic — freer points + short patterns.
• Rally tolerance: Edge Altmaier — thrives when points stretch and pace dips.
• Big-point poise: Slight Medjedovic based on 2025 scalps; beware tiebreak variance.
• Bo5 stamina: Edge Altmaier on paper; Medjedovic must manage physicals.
• Upset paths: Altmaier needs depth to BH, mix heights/tempo, and drag Felix-length rallies (10+ balls) to sap legs.