Donna Vekić vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro

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Donna Vekić vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro — US Open R1 Preview

WTA US Open Hard Court Round 1

🧠 Form & Context

Donna Vekić (No. 49, age 29)

• 🇭🇷 Former world No. 17, still searching for rhythm.
• 📉 2025: 12–20 (6–11 hard).
• ⚠️ Last back-to-back wins in April (Madrid); no QF since 2023.
• 🏟️ US Open: QF in 2019, R16 in 2024 — but three 1R exits in her last five visits.
• 💡 Game: Big serve + first-strike power; reliability under pressure has dipped lately.

Jessica Bouzas Maneiro (No. 40, age 22)

• 🇪🇸 Breakout 2025, pushed inside the top 40.
• 📊 2025: 25–19 (10–9 hard).
• 🔥 Deep runs: Wimbledon R16, Montreal QF, Cincinnati R16 — first meaningful Masters/Slam traction.
• 📈 Style: Baseline grinder with growing rally tolerance and smarter serve placement.
• ⚠️ Experience: Only her second US Open main draw (R3 in 2024).

🔍 Match Breakdown

Momentum: Bouzas is riding career-best form with quality wins (Fernandez, Townsend, Zhu, Kenin) in recent months. Vekić hasn’t strung consecutive victories together for four months.

Patterns & match-ups: Bouzas is comfortable extending exchanges, absorbing pace, and re-launching the rally. If Vekić’s first serve dips, the Spaniard’s depth and legs should dictate neutral patterns.

Mental angle: Vekić’s confidence has wavered at majors; Bouzas is playing freer as her rise gathers steam.

H2H: 1–0 Vekić (Tenerife 2021 qualies, 6–0 6–2) — largely irrelevant given Bouzas was ~360 then.

🔮 Prediction

The form book leans young and rising. Bouzas’ rally tolerance and current confidence profile fit well against Vekić’s up-and-down serve-plus-forehand game. Donna can absolutely make it messy with a hot serving day, but recent trends keep her in a vulnerable-favorite bucket.

Pick: Bouzas Maneiro in 3 sets — expect early resistance from Vekić, then the Spaniard’s legs and consistency to take over.

📊 Tale of the Tape (Qualitative)

• Form trend: Clear edge Bouzas; Vekić on a prolonged skid.
• Surface fit: Long rallies on hard favor Bouzas’ consistency vs. Vekić’s streaky first-strike game.
• Serve/return: If Vekić’s first-serve % drops, Bouzas’ return depth flips control.
• Mileage: Bouzas’ engine > Vekić’s recent sustainability across sets.
• Intangibles: Confidence curve with Bouzas; pressure axis on Vekić.