Leandro Riedi vs Pedro Martinez

🎾 US Open Betting Notebook
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Leandro Riedi vs Pedro Martinez — US Open 1R Preview

ATP US Open Hard Court First Round

🧠 Form & Context

Leandro Riedi (No. 435, age 23)

• 🇨🇭 Swiss talent with a serve-forehand combo once seen as top-100 caliber.
• 📊 2025 record: 15–7 (8–4 on hard). Built confidence with qualifying runs at Wimbledon, Cincinnati, and US Open.
• 📉 Concern: Fragile fitness profile — retired three times this year, ended 2024 season early after USO.
• 🏟️ Slam history: 0–2 in main draws (Wimbledon 2024 & 2025, both R1 losses).
• 💡 Upside: Looked sharp in NYC qualies, beating Virtanen & Johns in straights.

Pedro Martinez (No. 66, age 28)

• 🇪🇸 Clay-court grinder, but showing surprising competence on hard in 2025.
• 📊 2025 record: 16–26 (4–9 on hard). Notable: win over Rune in Rotterdam, R2 in AO, Cincy, and Winston-Salem.
• 🏟️ US Open history: 2–2 overall; battled through a five-set R1 win last year.
• ⚠️ Concerns: Injuries (retired in Bucharest & Bundesliga), heavy schedule with limited deep runs.
• 💡 Strength: Consistency, fitness edge, and more Slam experience than Riedi.

🔍 Match Breakdown

H2H: First meeting.

Momentum check: Riedi enters on the back of three qualifying wins, bringing confidence and shot tolerance. Martinez has collected sporadic good results but too often fades against aggressive shotmakers.

Tactically: Riedi’s power serve + forehand can dictate on New York’s quick hard courts. Martinez needs to elongate rallies, test Riedi’s movement, and force physicality. Fitness is the wildcard — over five sets, Martinez’s durability is more trusted, but Riedi has the fresher upside if he stays healthy.

🔮 Prediction

This looks like a toss-up between a qualifier with upside and a grinder with stability. Riedi’s shot-making could overwhelm Martinez if he holds up physically, but expect swings in momentum.

Pick: Riedi in five sets, riding his serve-forehand to edge a scrappy battle.

📊 Tale of the Tape (Qualitative)

• Serve edge: Riedi brings the bigger first-strike game.
• Baseline durability: Martinez steadier in long rallies.
• Form: Riedi sharper from qualies; Martinez scattered results.
• Fitness factor: Martinez historically sturdier, but Riedi’s upside live if healthy.
• Experience: Martinez holds clear Slam edge (11 R1 wins lifetime).