Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Hady Habib

🇲🇽 ATP Los Cabos – 1st Round

🗓️ Date: 15 July, 03:00 (CEST)
📍 Surface: Outdoor Hard

🧠 Form & Context

Hady Habib
🇱🇧 Lebanon’s top-ranked player, Habib reached a career high of No. 159 and currently sits at No. 172.
🛠️ A Challenger circuit regular, his 2025 season includes a 16–14 record with a 6–6 mark on hard courts.
🌍 Made the main draw at the Australian Open, and played qualifying rounds at both Roland Garros and Wimbledon.
📉 After a solid May stretch (QF & SF in Oeiras and Ostrava), he’s dropped 4 of his last 5 matches.
🔙 Holds a 2016 Futures win over Kovacevic, though both players have significantly evolved since.

Aleksandar Kovacevic
🚀 The American has surged in 2025, highlighted by a Challenger title in Oeiras and a runner-up finish in Montpellier (defeating Rublev along the way).
📈 Ranked No. 76, he carries a 24–19 overall record, with a respectable 7–5 on hard courts.
🌵 Loves Los Cabos—reached quarterfinals here in 2023 and 2024, showing comfort with altitude and conditions.
⚔️ Recent Slam form is strong: took Fucsovics to five sets at Wimbledon and pushed top players like Zverev and Cerundolo throughout the season.
🎯 Opened 2025 with back-to-back Challenger finals, riding momentum into ATP-level consistency.

🔍 Match Breakdown

This is a matchup between a steady Challenger grinder and a rising ATP-level hitter. Habib’s strength lies in work rate and point construction, but his lack of a standout weapon limits his ability to control matches—particularly against aggressive baseliners like Kovacevic.

Kovacevic brings more firepower off both wings, especially on serve+1 plays. He also has greater experience in high-pressure matches and has shown a knack for closing out tight sets. The hard courts in Los Cabos suit his offensive patterns, and his prior success at this venue suggests he’ll be confident from the start.

Habib will look to lengthen points and disrupt tempo, possibly taking advantage of any sluggishness from Kovacevic post-Wimbledon. But unless he serves exceptionally well and keeps unforced errors low, this is a difficult stylistic matchup.

🔮 Prediction

Kovacevic’s quality of opposition, Los Cabos track record, and overall form suggest he should get through in straight sets. Watch for a possible slow start, but once settled, the American should pull away comfortably.

🧩 Pick: Aleksandar Kovacevic to win in 2 sets
🎯 Leans: Kovacevic –3.5 games, Under 21.5 games
💡 Live Angle: Value on Kovacevic break-back if Habib takes an early lead