ATP Rome: Carlos Alcaraz vs Karen Khachanov

ATP Rome: Carlos Alcaraz vs Karen Khachanov

🧠 Form & Context

After a few early exits in previous years, Carlos Alcaraz is finally making a deep run at the Rome Masters. With his victory over Laslo Djere, the young Spaniard has now reached the fourth round for the first time in his career, closing another gap in his growing résumé. Already crowned champion in Monte Carlo earlier this spring, Alcaraz looks primed to add another prestigious clay title to his collection.

There were concerns over his fitness following injury setbacks in Barcelona and a withdrawal from Madrid, but so far in Rome, his mobility and intensity have been encouraging. Alcaraz now sets his sights on an ambitious goal: completing the rare 'Big Clay Triple'—winning Monte Carlo, Rome, and Roland Garros in the same season—a feat even Rafael Nadal only achieved once.

On the other side of the net, Karen Khachanov has built a reputation for grinding matches into long, physical battles. However, against top-tier opponents, the Russian has struggled badly this season, posting an 0–7 record against top-20 players. Rome has also been a frustrating venue for him; despite reaching the fourth round three times before (2018, 2022, 2024), he has never managed to break through into the quarterfinals.

That said, Khachanov did enjoy a morale-boosting third-round demolition of Francesco Passaro, dropping just three games. Whether that form can carry over against Alcaraz remains to be seen. To have a real shot, Khachanov will need to maintain high aggression and intensity—qualities that have often gone missing in his biggest matches this year.

🔍 Match Breakdown

When it comes to matchups, this one looks tough for Khachanov. Alcaraz’s footspeed, counter-punching ability, and heavier baseline game have consistently neutralized the Russian’s strengths in previous encounters. Khachanov’s serve and forehand, typically his big weapons, have struggled to earn him easy points against the Spaniard.

Unless Khachanov can redline his serve and hit his forehand with elite depth and precision throughout the match, he’ll likely find himself trapped in long rallies—something Alcaraz thrives on. The challenge becomes even greater on clay, where defense and elasticity are amplified, and margins for error shrink even further.

Importantly, Alcaraz looks to be operating at about 90–95% fitness based on his Rome performances so far. If he maintains that level, it’s hard to envision anything other than an extension of his perfect head-to-head record against Khachanov.

🔮 Prediction

This looks set to be another relatively straightforward win for Carlos Alcaraz. Khachanov might manage to keep things tight early—especially if he serves well—but over the course of the match, Alcaraz’s superior movement, variety, and clay-court instincts should prove decisive.

🧩 Prediction: Carlos Alcaraz to win in straight sets, with a strong possibility of a tiebreak in the opening set.