PBTennis · Tennis Form Snapshot · Day 169
Thursday Form Radar: Paris after the upset storm
Djokovic, Medvedev, Zverev and De Minaur all lost yesterday. Today the board has 7 wrong-side alerts, led by a 28-point gap with the better-form player at 2.75.
50 open matches | 11 tournaments | 7 wrong-side alerts | 4/6 wrong-side held yesterday |
Yesterday's board, checked
Every signal is checked against the next day's draw.
4 of 6 wrong-side alerts held, including a flagged underdog who won at 7.00. Others came through at 3.25, 2.63 and 2.00.
The hard part: it was a brutal day for favourites in Paris. Form-backed favourites went 5 of 11, with Zverev, Medvedev and De Minaur all beaten.
| D168 signal | Held |
|---|---|
| Wrong-side alerts | 4 / 6 |
| Level form at short prices | 4 / 6 |
| Sub-threshold underdogs | 4 / 6 |
| Form-backed favourites | 5 / 11 |
| Late form-backed favourites (D165–D167) | 14 / 19 |
Paris third round: one form read open
The prices are public. Our 52-week form read on each match is on the members' board.
| Match | Odds | Form read |
|---|---|---|
| Paris · Alcaraz vs Berrettini | 1.12 / 6.00 | Form agrees with the market |
| Paris · Fritz vs Fils | 1.80 / 2.00 | 🔒 members |
| Paris · Shelton vs Rinderknech | 1.29 / 3.75 | 🔒 members |
| Paris · Paul vs Halys | 1.30 / 3.50 | 🔒 members |
| Paris · Musetti vs van Assche | 1.40 / 3.00 | 🔒 members |
| Paris · Ruud vs Struff | 1.62 / 2.30 | 🔒 members |
| Paris · Etcheverry vs Hijikata | 1.73 / 2.10 | 🔒 members |
| Paris · Borges vs Buse | 1.53 / 2.50 | 🔒 members |
| Hong Kong · Cirstea vs Stoiana | 1.30 / 3.50 | 🔒 members |
| Hong Kong · Eala vs Valentova | 1.57 / 2.38 | 🔒 members |
| Hong Kong · Sonmez vs Stojsavljevic | 1.40 / 2.90 | 🔒 members |
In three of these 10 locked matches the underdog is slightly ahead on form, including two of the players who caused yesterday's upsets.
Today's 7 wrong-side alerts
In each of these, the market's favourite is the player in worse form.
| Event | Match | Gap |
|---|---|---|
| Taranto Challenger | 🔒 █████ vs █████ | 28 |
| Taranto Challenger | 🔒 █████ vs █████ | 18 |
| Taranto Challenger | 🔒 █████ vs █████ | 14 |
| Villa Maria Challenger | 🔒 █████ vs █████ | 13 |
| Taranto Challenger | 🔒 █████ vs █████ | 11 |
| + 2 more alerts on the members' board | ||
Two favourites to watch in Taranto. Both won their last match as lower-rated favourites, with gaps of 26 and 32 points. Today the market backs them again, one at 1.40 against a player rated 28 points higher.
39 boards in
| Signal (D130–D168) | Resolved | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Form-backed favourites (favourite wins) | 658 | 72% |
| Level form at short prices (favourite wins) | 242 | 72% |
| Sub-threshold underdogs (underdog advances) | 289 | 40% |
| Wrong-side alerts (underdog advances) | 384 | 37% |
Outcomes come from draw progression. These are small samples and not a betting performance record.
Unlock the full Day 169 board
All 50 matches with form tiers, all 7 wrong-side alerts named, the crisis-tier favourite, form arcs, and the full Excel and DOCX snapshot.
Open on Patreon →Match-by-match analysis, model review and filtered selections are in the Elite membership.
#Tennis #TennisBetting #ATP #WTA #ATPChallenger #WTA125 #TennisForm #RolexParisMasters #ParisMasters #HongKongOpen #Alcaraz #Fritz #Fils #Shelton #Musetti #PBTennis
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