Jiri Lehecka vs Raphael Collignon

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Lehecka vs Collignon — US Open 3R Preview

ATP US Open Hard Court Round 3

🧠 Form & Context

Jiri Lehecka (No. 21, age 23)

• 🇨🇿 Czech talent edging closer to consistent Slam breakthroughs.
• 📊 2025: 32–17 overall, 18–8 on hard.
• 🔥 USO 2025: Beat Ćorić (3–1) & Etcheverry (3–1), steadying after slow starts each time.
• 🏟️ Slam record: AO R16 (2023, 2025), Wimbledon SF (2023); never past R3 in New York.
• 📈 Summer hard swing: R16 in Toronto, Cincinnati, Washington — solid volume, no signature scalp.
• ⚠️ Watchpoint: Often drops the opener, relies on mid-match resets and physicality.

Raphael Collignon (No. 107, age 23)

• 🇧🇪 Belgian grinder making a Slam breakthrough.
• 📊 2025: 30–17 overall; 19–10 on clay, just 2–3 on hard before New York.
• 🔥 USO 2025: Def. Galán in straights, then shocked Casper Ruud in 5 sets — career-best win.
• 🏟️ Slam history: Only 2nd Slam main draw (lost to Čilić at Wimbledon 2025).
• 📉 Tour-level: Rarely beyond R1 prior to this week; most success at Challenger level (12 titles).
• ⚠️ Fitness: Coming off a draining five-setter; endurance has been a weak point.

🔍 Match Breakdown

H2H: First meeting.

Match dynamics: Lehecka brings the heavier baseline weight and the bigger serve, plus best-of-five experience. Collignon excels when rallies stretch and patterns repeat, but he may lack the first-strike pop to consistently dislodge Lehecka from the center of the court.

Key angles:
• Starts: Lehecka’s slow openings give Collignon a window to steal Set 1.
• Middle frames: If Lehecka settles, his depth + pace should force shorter exchanges and errors from the Belgian.
• Physical ask: Collignon’s turnaround after the Ruud marathon is a tall order against a bruising ball-striker.

🔮 Prediction

This is Lehecka’s to manage. He owns the power, rhythm control, and Slam seasoning, while Collignon steps into new territory off a huge but taxing upset. Early resistance is live, yet as the pace bites and rallies shorten, the Czech should separate.

Pick: Lehecka in 3 sets — possible tight opener, then scoreboard pressure takes over.

📊 Tale of the Tape (Qualitative)

• Form trend: Lehecka steady on hard; Collignon inspired but unproven on hard at this level.
• Weapons: Lehecka’s serve + forehand pace vs. Collignon’s consistency and counterpunching.
• Physicality: Edge Lehecka — fresher legs; Collignon off a 5-setter.
• Tempo control: Lehecka when exchanges are short-to-medium; Collignon prefers elongated patterns.
• Intangibles: Collignon’s Ruud scalp = belief; Lehecka’s Slam reps = composure in the crunch.