Jessica Pegula vs Victoria Azarenka

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Pegula vs Azarenka — US Open 3R Preview

WTA US Open Hard Court Round 3

🧠 Form & Context

Jessica Pegula (No. 4, age 31)

• 🇺🇸 Current American No. 1, ultra-consistent top-10 performer.
• 📊 2025: 39–16 overall, 24–9 on hard.
• 🔥 USO 2025: Def. Sherif 6–0, 6–4 & Blinkova 6–1, 6–3.
• 🏟️ US Open: Finalist 2024, QF 2022, R16 2023.
• 🏆 Titles: Austin, Charleston, Bad Homburg in 2025.
• ⚠️ Arrived in patchy form but has looked sharp and focused in New York.
• 💡 Strengths: Elite return game, depth, consistency on hard courts.

Victoria Azarenka (No. 132, age 36)

• 🇧🇾 Former World No. 1, 3-time USO finalist (2012, 2013, 2020).
• 📊 2025: 11–11 overall, 6–6 on hard.
• 🔥 USO 2025: Def. Inoue 7–6, 6–4 & Pavlyuchenkova 6–3, 6–3.
• 📉 Context: First back-to-back wins at tour level since USO 2024.
• 🏟️ US Open: Last reached 2nd week in 2022 (R16).
• 💡 Strengths: Court IQ, competitive instincts, thrives in New York despite ranking struggles.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Head-to-head: 3–3. Azarenka leads 2–0 in Slams; Pegula has won 3 of last 4 meetings.

Pegula’s steady depth and counterpunching can expose Azarenka’s movement in longer rallies. Azarenka, however, has the ability to flatten groundstrokes and take time away, a tactic that worked in Melbourne 2023.

Pegula arrives battle-tested from a full season; Azarenka leans on experience and the ability to peak in New York. The American is under pressure as last year’s finalist, while Azarenka plays freely with no expectations.

🔮 Prediction

Azarenka’s pedigree makes her a dangerous floater, but Pegula’s form and match rhythm look stronger. Unless the American dips sharply, her ability to control baseline exchanges and dictate with depth should prevail.

Pick: Pegula in 2 tight sets — expect at least one long set or a tiebreak, but Pegula’s steadiness tilts the balance.

📊 Tale of the Tape (Qualitative)

• Form trend: Pegula sharp in New York; Azarenka finding rhythm but inconsistent.
• Surface fit: Both strong on hard, but Pegula’s depth more reliable.
• Experience: Azarenka’s 3 finals vs Pegula’s 2024 runner-up finish.
• Baseline battle: Pegula’s steadiness vs Azarenka’s flat aggression.
• Edge: Pegula — younger legs, sharper rhythm, and home crowd lift.