Elise Mertens vs Cristina Bucsa

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Mertens vs Bucsa — US Open 3R Preview

WTA US Open Hard Court Round 3

🧠 Form & Context

Elise Mertens (No. 21, age 29)

• 🇧🇪 Tour veteran, rock-solid in early Slam rounds.
• 📊 2025: 34–16 overall, 15–9 on hard.
• 🔥 USO 2025: Def. Ahn 6–1, 6–0 & Sun 6–2, 6–3 — no sets dropped yet.
• 🏟️ US Open: R16 in 4 of last 7 appearances — consistent in New York.
• 🏆 2025: Titles in Hobart & Rosmalen, finalist in Singapore. Wimbledon R16.
• 💡 Strengths: Reliable serve, deep baseline hitting, thrives on composure and steadiness.

Cristina Bucsa (No. 95, age 27)

• 🇪🇸 Baseline grinder showing her best Slam progress to date.
• 📊 2025: 25–25 overall, 15–14 on hard.
• 🔥 USO 2025: Def. Liu 6–2, 6–1 & Eala 6–4, 6–3 — first-ever USO R3.
• 🏟️ Slam history: Also reached R3 at AO 2023 & Wimbledon 2025.
• 📉 Pre-USO: Entered with a 0–3 record in North America.
• ⚠️ Weakness: Struggles vs elite pace — needs long rallies to unsettle opponents.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Head-to-head: 1–1. Bucsa won Beijing 2024 (3 sets); Mertens won Doha 2025 (straights).

Mertens will aim to dictate from the baseline with depth and flat hitting. Bucsa must drag points into grinding exchanges but may lack the finishing power to consistently dent the Belgian.

Mental edge: Mertens — far more experienced at this stage. Context: Bucsa already at her career-best here, while Mertens expects herself to push further.

🔮 Prediction

Bucsa’s defensive resilience might spark competitive spells, but Mertens looks too composed and sharp. The Belgian hasn’t looked troubled yet, and her blend of consistency and weapons should carry her through.

Pick: Mertens in 2 sets — Bucsa could force a tight set, but Mertens’ steadiness makes her the clear favorite.

📊 Tale of the Tape (Qualitative)

• Form trend: Mertens steady & efficient; Bucsa finally finding Slam rhythm.
• Surface fit: Both solid on hard, but Mertens brings more firepower.
• Baseline dynamic: Mertens’ flatter strikes vs Bucsa’s rally grinding.
• Mental game: Clear edge to Mertens with her Slam résumé.
• Edge: Mertens — experience + consistency at this stage.