Elena Rybakina vs Emma Raducanu

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Rybakina vs Raducanu — US Open 3R Preview

WTA US Open Hard Court Round 3

🧠 Form & Context

Elena Rybakina (No. 10, age 26)

• 🇰🇿 Former Wimbledon champion, established top-10 presence.
• 📊 2025: 43–16 overall, 27–10 on hard courts.
• 🔥 USO 2025: Def. Pareja 6–3, 6–0 & Valentova 6–3, 7–6 (saved 4 set points in 2nd).
• 🏟️ US Open history: Never beyond R3 (losses here in 2021 & 2023).
• 📈 Summer swing: SFs in Washington, Montreal, Cincinnati — strong but draining stretch.
• ⚠️ Watchpoint: Mid-match lapses still pop up; her serve has been her lifeline.

Emma Raducanu (No. 36, age 22)

• 🇬🇧 2021 US Open champion, regaining confidence.
• 📊 2025: 26–17 overall, 15–9 on hard courts.
• 🔥 USO 2025: Def. Shibahara 6–1, 6–2 & Tjen 6–2, 6–1 — her first wins here since lifting the trophy.
• 🏟️ Slam record: 3R at AO & Wimbledon 2025; last Slam second week was Wimbledon 2024.
• 📈 Confidence: Recent wins vs Sakkari & Osaka (Washington), pushed Sabalenka to 3 in Cincinnati.
• ⚠️ Note: Most 2025 wins have come outside the top-20 tier.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Head-to-head: Rybakina leads 1–0 (Sydney 2022, 6–0, 6–1).

Rybakina’s serve + flat baseline power should set the terms, especially on a quicker Flushing surface. Raducanu’s task will be to absorb, redirect, and drag points long enough to test Rybakina’s focus and movement.

If Rybakina serves clean, Raducanu may find it difficult to collect cheap points. The tension lies in Rybakina’s tendency to wobble in third rounds vs Raducanu’s comfort in New York.

🔮 Prediction

Raducanu looks sharper than in recent seasons, and her composure in New York is a factor. But Rybakina’s serve, firepower, and form make her the favorite if she keeps focus intact.

Pick: Rybakina in 2 tight sets (7–5, 6–4 type scoreline). Raducanu can compete, but Rybakina holds the bigger guns.

📊 Tale of the Tape (Qualitative)

• Form trend: Rybakina consistent but occasionally streaky; Raducanu trending upward with confidence wins.
• Serve factor: Rybakina has the decisive edge.
• Baseline dynamic: Rybakina’s flat power vs Raducanu’s redirection skills.
• Intangibles: Rybakina often shaky at R3; Raducanu thrives in New York energy.
• Edge: Rybakina — pedigree and weapons tilt her way.