Semi-final previews from the Guayaquil Challenger (clay), with form, serve and return numbers and a full Tale of the Tape for every match. Times are as listed by the tournament schedule and may move with the order of play.
Valerio Aboian vs Hugo Dellien
🧠 Form & Context
Valerio Aboian
- 🔥 Ranked No. 283 at 24, left-handed, 6–4 in his last 10, with wins over Roncadelli, Dedura and Hardt this week.
- 🔁 The slightly better returner: 37.3% against the first serve and 45.8% of break points converted.
- 🏆 Has won 69% of deciding sets this season and 62% over his career.
- 📈 Has won 60% of his recent matches.
- ⚠️ Lands only 60.7% of first serves and wins 49.1% behind his second.
Hugo Dellien
- 📊 Ranked No. 119 at 33, 6–4 in his last 10, with wins over Jarry, Pacheco Mendez and Zarate this week.
- 🎯 Lands a remarkable 72.5% of first serves.
- 🔒 Saves 59.1% of break points.
- 🎯 Has converted 49% of break points in recent matches.
- 🏆 Has won 65% of best-of-three matches over his career.
🔍 Match Breakdown
Dellien is the 1.20 favourite and won their only meeting, 6–1 6–4 in Santa Cruz de la Sierra in April. Both are 6–4 in their last 10.
Dellien's consistency is his main weapon: he lands 72.5% of first serves to Aboian's 60.7%. Behind the first serve they are level (about 65%), and Dellien is slightly stronger behind the second (50.4% vs 49.1%).
Aboian is slightly the better returner, with 37.3% vs 35.4% against the first serve, and he converts more break points (45.8% vs 44.3%). In recent matches, though, Dellien has been converting more (49% vs 42%).
Their recent records are level (60% vs 61% of matches won). Aboian has won more deciding sets this season (69% vs 61%).
Dellien's consistency, experience and head-to-head win explain the price. Aboian's run this week and his return numbers suggest it may be closer than 1.20.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Aboian | Dellien |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 283 | 119 |
| Age | 24 | 33 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 1 |
| First serves in | 60.7% | 72.5% |
| 1st-serve points won | 65.4% | 65.2% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 49.1% | 50.4% |
| Break points saved | 58.2% | 59.1% |
| Break points converted | 45.8% | 44.3% |
| Return points won (career) | 43% | 42% |
| Tiebreak win % | 50% | 52% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 62% | 61% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 61% | 65% |
Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva vs Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo
🧠 Form & Context
Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva
- 🔥 Ranked No. 186 at 26, 7–3 in his last 10, through to the semi-finals with three wins this week.
- 🏆 Won their only meeting, in Coquimbo in 2025.
- 🚀 The stronger server: 65.8% on first-serve points and 58.1% of break points saved.
- 📈 Has won 58% of his recent matches.
- ⚠️ The weaker returner: 34.8% against the first serve.
Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo
- 🔥 Ranked No. 332 at 21, 7–3 in his last 10, with wins over Tobon, Barrios Vera and Midon this week.
- 🔁 An outstanding returner: 40.3% against the first serve and 57.0% against the second.
- 🎯 Converts 50.3% of his break points, and 61% in recent matches.
- 🚀 Wins 58% behind his second serve in recent matches.
- ⚠️ Has saved only 43% of break points recently, and his career data is thin.
🔍 Match Breakdown
The market can barely separate them: Aguilar Cardozo is 1.79, Reis Da Silva 1.89. Reis Da Silva won their only meeting, 6–3 1–6 6–4 at an ITF event in Coquimbo last year. Both are 7–3 in their last 10.
This is serve against return. Reis Da Silva wins more behind his first serve (65.8% vs 63.1%) and saves more break points (58.1% vs 55.9%). Aguilar Cardozo is slightly stronger behind the second (50.8% vs 49.4%).
Aguilar Cardozo is the far better returner, with 40.3% vs 34.8% against the first serve and 57.0% vs 51.9% against the second. He also converts far more break points (50.3% vs 44.1%).
Reis Da Silva has the better recent record (58% vs 43% of matches won) and has been much better under pressure lately: 56% vs 43% of break points saved.
Aguilar Cardozo has already beaten Barrios Vera and Midon this week with his return game. Reis Da Silva's serve and head-to-head win make this a genuine toss-up.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Reis Da Silva | Aguilar Cardozo |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 186 | 332 |
| Age | 26 | 21 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Head-to-head | 1 | 0 |
| First serves in | 63.7% | 63.1% |
| 1st-serve points won | 65.8% | 63.1% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 49.4% | 50.8% |
| Break points saved | 58.1% | 55.9% |
| Break points converted | 44.1% | 50.3% |
| Return points won (career) | 41% | 47% |
| Tiebreak win % | 56% | – |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 46% | 25% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 55% | 44% |
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