PBTennis · Tennis Form Snapshot · Day 164
Semi-final Saturday: 13 of 19 wrong-side alerts in two days
Over the last two boards, the underdog with the better form won 13 of 19 flagged matches. Today's board is smaller, but it has a 7.00 underdog rated 21 points higher than her opponent, two equal-odds form gaps and four near-even mismatches.
52 open matches | 15 tournaments | 3 wrong-side alerts | 13/19 wrong-side held, last 2 days |
Yesterday's board, checked
Every signal is checked against the next day's draw. Friday kept the run going.
5 of 7 wrong-side alerts held. Flagged underdogs won at 3.10, 2.62, 2.30, 2.10 and 1.91. Two of them now meet each other in a semi-final.
Form-backed favourites went 7 of 10, including all four Vienna quarter-final favourites.
| D163 signal | Held |
|---|---|
| Wrong-side alerts | 5 / 7 |
| Form-backed favourites | 7 / 10 |
| Level form at short prices | 3 / 6 |
| Sub-threshold underdogs | 2 / 7 |
Tour semi-finals: one form read open
The prices are public. Our 52-week form read on each match is on the members' board.
| Match | Odds | Form read |
|---|---|---|
| Vienna · Alcaraz vs Medvedev | 1.40 / 3.00 | Form agrees with the market |
| Vienna · Zverev vs De Minaur | 1.40 / 3.00 | 🔒 members |
| Basel · Lehecka vs Struff | 1.44 / 2.75 | 🔒 members |
| Tokyo · Fernandez vs Rakhimova | 1.36 / 3.20 | 🔒 members |
| Tokyo · Shnaider vs Pohankova | 1.33 / 3.30 | 🔒 members |
| Guangzhou · Tagger vs Quevedo | 1.62 / 2.30 | 🔒 members |
Plus two Challenger semi-finals priced at 1.83 each, where one player is 10 points ahead on form.
Today's 3 wrong-side alerts
In each of these, the market's favourite is the player in worse form.
| Event | Match | Gap |
|---|---|---|
| Chennai WTA (qualifying) | 🔒 █████ vs █████ | 21 |
| Courmayeur WTA 125 | 🔒 █████ vs █████ | 11 |
| Ningbo Challenger | 🔒 █████ vs █████ | 11 |
| The board names all three, with form tiers and odds. | ||
Two names to watch. One Challenger semi-finalist has won twice this week as a flagged underdog and is now a 1.80 favourite with a 33-point form lead. One WTA 125 favourite won her last match as the lower-rated player and is priced that way again.
34 boards in
| Signal (D130–D163) | Resolved | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Level form at short prices (favourite wins) | 209 | 73% |
| Form-backed favourites (favourite wins) | 571 | 73% |
| Sub-threshold underdogs (underdog advances) | 254 | 39% |
| Wrong-side alerts (underdog advances) | 333 | 38% |
Outcomes come from draw progression. These are small samples and not a betting performance record.
Unlock the full Day 164 board
All 52 matches with form tiers, the three wrong-side alerts named, the equal-odds and near-even gaps, form arcs, and the full Excel and DOCX snapshot.
Open on Patreon →Match-by-match analysis, model review and filtered selections are in the Elite membership.
#Tennis #TennisBetting #ATP #WTA #ATPChallenger #WTA125 #TennisForm #ViennaOpen #SwissIndoors #RolexParisMasters #Vienna #Basel #Tokyo #Alcaraz #Zverev #Medvedev #DeMinaur #PBTennis
18+ only. Form ratings are an information tool, not betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
No comments:
Post a Comment