First-round qualifying previews from the Paris Masters (indoor hard), with form, serve and return numbers and a full Tale of the Tape for every open match. Matches marked ๐ are on today's PBTennis Patreon card. Times are as listed by the tournament schedule and may move with the order of play.
Jaime Faria vs Rinky Hijikata
๐ง Form & Context
Jaime Faria
- ๐ Ranked No. 57 at 23, 4–6 in his last 10.
- ๐ Wins 70.5% on first-serve points, and 74% in recent matches.
- ๐ Has won 63% of his recent matches.
- ๐ Has won 59% of deciding sets over his career.
- ⚠️ Saves only 56.9% of break points and lands 58.0% of first serves.
Rinky Hijikata
- ๐ Ranked No. 85 at 25, 3–7 in his last 10.
- ๐ Saves 61.4% of break points.
- ๐ Wins 50.4% behind his second serve.
- ๐ Wins 60% of tiebreaks and has won 68% of deciding sets this season.
- ⚠️ Has won only 50% of his recent matches.
๐ Match Breakdown
The market cannot split them: both are 1.84. Hijikata won their only meeting, 6–2 6–1 at an ITF event in Setubal back in 2021.
Faria wins slightly more behind his first serve (70.5% vs 69.7%). Hijikata is better behind the second (50.4% vs 48.8%) and saves far more break points (61.4% vs 56.9%).
On return there is little in it. Faria wins slightly more against both serves (32.4% vs 31.3% and 52.1% vs 51.0%).
Faria has the better recent form (63% vs 50% of matches won). Hijikata has the edge in tight finishes: 60% vs 53% of tiebreaks and 68% vs 56% of deciding sets this season.
A genuine coin-flip. Faria's form against Hijikata's record under pressure.
๐ Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Faria | Hijikata |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 57 | 85 |
| Age | 23 | 25 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 1 |
| First serves in | 58.0% | 58.9% |
| 1st-serve points won | 70.5% | 69.7% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 48.8% | 50.4% |
| Break points saved | 56.9% | 61.4% |
| Break points converted | 41.8% | 41.2% |
| Return points won (career) | 40% | 39% |
| Tiebreak win % | 53% | 60% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 59% | 56% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 61% | 60% |
Pablo Carreno Busta vs Mattia Bellucci
๐ง Form & Context
Pablo Carreno Busta
- ๐ Ranked No. 74 at 35, 4–6 in his last 10.
- ๐ฏ Lands 64.0% of first serves.
- ๐ The better returner against the second serve: 52.5%.
- ๐ Has won 64% of best-of-three matches over his career.
- ⚠️ Wins only 69.6% behind his first serve.
Mattia Bellucci
- ๐ฅ Ranked No. 66 at 25, left-handed, 8–2 in his last 10.
- ๐ A big first serve: 72.6% of points won, and 74% in recent matches.
- ๐ Saves 61.9% of break points, and 67% in recent matches.
- ๐ Has won 62% of his recent matches.
- ⚠️ Lands only 59.1% of first serves and converts 39.3% of break points.
๐ Match Breakdown
Bellucci is the 1.66 favourite. Their head-to-head is 1–1: Carreno Busta won a final-set tiebreak in Brisbane in January, and Bellucci won in Malaga in 2023.
Bellucci has the bigger first serve (72.6% vs 69.6%) and saves more break points (61.9% vs 60.5%). Carreno Busta lands more first serves (64.0% vs 59.1%).
Carreno Busta is the better returner against the second serve (52.5% vs 49.4%) and converts more break points (41.5% vs 39.3%).
The form is firmly with Bellucci: 8–2 in his last 10 against 4–6.
Bellucci's serve and form make him the favourite. Carreno Busta's experience and return game should make this competitive.
๐ Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Carreno Busta | Bellucci |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 74 | 66 |
| Age | 35 | 25 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Head-to-head | 1 | 1 |
| First serves in | 64.0% | 59.1% |
| 1st-serve points won | 69.6% | 72.6% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 51.9% | 51.7% |
| Break points saved | 60.5% | 61.9% |
| Break points converted | 41.5% | 39.3% |
| Return points won (career) | 39% | 38% |
| Tiebreak win % | 57% | 56% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 55% | 56% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 64% | 62% |
Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Zachary Svajda
๐ Members-only read
This match is on today's PBTennis Patreon card. The full breakdown – form, serve and return numbers, the Tale of the Tape and our read on the match – is available to our members.
Hugo Gaston vs Vit Kopriva
๐ง Form & Context
Hugo Gaston
- ๐ Ranked No. 110 at 26, left-handed, 4–6 in his last 10.
- ๐ Leads the head-to-head 2–0.
- ๐ Has won 54% of his recent matches, and 61% of break points saved recently.
- ๐ Wins 58% of tiebreaks over his career.
- ⚠️ Lands only 55.9% of first serves.
Vit Kopriva
- ๐ Ranked No. 64 at 29, 3–7 in his last 10.
- ๐ The better returner: 35.5% against the first serve and 53.8% against the second.
- ๐ฏ Converts 46.4% of his break points.
- ๐ Has won 59% of deciding sets over his career.
- ⚠️ Has won only 32% of his recent matches and 38% of deciding sets this season.
๐ Match Breakdown
Gaston is the 1.56 favourite despite being ranked lower. He has won both their meetings, most recently 6–2 6–4 in Auckland in January.
On serve they are close. Gaston wins slightly more behind both serves (67.1% vs 65.8% and 50.4% vs 49.3%), but Kopriva lands more first serves (60.3% vs 55.9%).
Kopriva is the better returner on paper, with 35.5% vs 33.3% against the first serve, and he converts more break points (46.4% vs 43.8%).
The recent form is the key difference. Gaston has won 54% of his recent matches to Kopriva's 32%, and 57% vs 38% of deciding sets this season.
Gaston's form and head-to-head make him the favourite. Kopriva's career return numbers give him a way in.
๐ Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Gaston | Kopriva |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 110 | 64 |
| Age | 26 | 29 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Head-to-head | 2 | 0 |
| First serves in | 55.9% | 60.3% |
| 1st-serve points won | 67.1% | 65.8% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 50.4% | 49.3% |
| Break points saved | 58.7% | 57.2% |
| Break points converted | 43.8% | 46.4% |
| Return points won (career) | 41% | 43% |
| Tiebreak win % | 58% | 50% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 57% | 59% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 56% | 58% |
James Duckworth vs Miomir Kecmanovic
๐ Members-only read
This match is on today's PBTennis Patreon card. The full breakdown – form, serve and return numbers, the Tale of the Tape and our read on the match – is available to our members.
Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Aleksandar Kovacevic
๐ง Form & Context
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
- ๐ Ranked No. 54 at 24, left-handed, 4–6 in his last 10.
- ๐ The far better returner: 35.5% against the first serve and 53.6% against the second.
- ๐ฏ Converts 46.1% of his break points and lands 65.1% of first serves.
- ๐ Wins 63% of tiebreaks and 61% of deciding sets over his career.
- ⚠️ Wins only 64.3% behind his first serve and saves 56.9% of break points.
Aleksandar Kovacevic
- ๐ Ranked No. 84 at 28, one-handed backhand, 2–8 in his last 10.
- ๐ A huge first serve: 75.5% of points won.
- ๐ Saves 62.7% of break points.
- ⚠️ Very weak on return: 26.6% against the first serve and 47.3% against the second.
- ⚠️ Has won only 37% of his recent matches and 36% of deciding sets this season.
๐ Match Breakdown
The market has them level at 1.84. Cerundolo won their only meeting, 3–6 7–5 6–2 on clay in Madrid last year.
This is a pure serve-against-return match-up. Kovacevic wins 75.5% behind his first serve to Cerundolo's 64.3%, and saves more break points (62.7% vs 56.9%).
Cerundolo is far stronger on return. He wins 35.5% of points against the first serve to 26.6%, and 53.6% against the second to 47.3%. He also converts far more break points (46.1% vs 37.3%).
Most of the form numbers favour Cerundolo. He is 4–6 in his last 10 against 2–8, has won 59% vs 37% of his recent matches, and has won 63% vs 36% of deciding sets this season.
Kovacevic's serve makes him dangerous indoors. Cerundolo's return game, form and record in tight sets point his way.
๐ Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Cerundolo | Kovacevic |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 54 | 84 |
| Age | 24 | 28 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Head-to-head | 1 | 0 |
| First serves in | 65.1% | 58.9% |
| 1st-serve points won | 64.3% | 75.5% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 50.5% | 50.6% |
| Break points saved | 56.9% | 62.7% |
| Break points converted | 46.1% | 37.3% |
| Return points won (career) | 42% | 35% |
| Tiebreak win % | 63% | 49% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 61% | 51% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 63% | 54% |
Tomas Machac vs Martin Landaluce
๐ง Form & Context
Tomas Machac
- ๐ Ranked No. 71 at 26, 6–4 in his last 10.
- ๐ Strong behind both serves: 70.7% on first-serve points and 53.7% on second.
- ๐ฏ Converts 43.1% of his break points.
- ๐ Wins 58% of tiebreaks and 67% of best-of-three matches over his career.
- ⚠️ Has won only 44% of his recent matches.
Martin Landaluce
- ๐ Ranked No. 67 at 20, 5–5 in his last 10.
- ๐ Saves 61.9% of break points, and 64% in recent matches.
- ๐ฏ Lands 62.7% of first serves.
- ⚠️ Wins only 49.3% behind his second serve.
- ⚠️ Has won just 44% of tiebreaks over his career.
๐ Match Breakdown
A first meeting between two players ranked four places apart. Machac is the 1.52 favourite.
Machac has the better serving numbers, especially behind the second serve (53.7% vs 49.3%). On break points saved they are level (about 62%).
Machac is also slightly the better returner and converts more break points (43.1% vs 40.2%).
Their recent records are similar (44% vs 47% of matches won), but Machac has the much better tiebreak record (58% vs 44%).
Machac's second serve and tiebreak record make him a fair favourite. Landaluce needs to keep his break-point saving at its recent level.
๐ Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Machac | Landaluce |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 71 | 67 |
| Age | 26 | 20 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 62.0% | 62.7% |
| 1st-serve points won | 70.7% | 69.4% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 53.7% | 49.3% |
| Break points saved | 61.7% | 61.9% |
| Break points converted | 43.1% | 40.2% |
| Return points won (career) | 40% | 39% |
| Tiebreak win % | 58% | 44% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 52% | 52% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 67% | 55% |
Tallon Griekspoor vs Benjamin Bonzi
๐ง Form & Context
Tallon Griekspoor
- ๐ฅ Ranked No. 50 at 30, 7–3 in his last 10.
- ๐ Leads the head-to-head 2–1, including a win in Bordeaux in May.
- ๐ A big first serve: 72.5% of points won.
- ๐ Saves 62.9% of break points.
- ⚠️ Weak on return: 29.1% against the first serve.
Benjamin Bonzi
- ๐ Ranked No. 99 at 30, 5–5 in his last 10.
- ๐ The better returner: 31.3% against the first serve and 51.8% against the second.
- ๐ Has won 56% of his recent matches.
- ๐ Wins 51.9% behind his second serve.
- ⚠️ Converts only 40.9% of break points.
๐ Match Breakdown
Griekspoor is the 1.60 favourite and leads their head-to-head 2–1. He won 6–4 6–3 in Bordeaux in May and in Pune in 2023. Bonzi's only win came back in 2017.
Griekspoor has the bigger serve. He wins 72.5% behind his first serve to 70.7%, and saves more break points (62.9% vs 61.4%).
Bonzi is the better returner, with 31.3% vs 29.1% against the first serve and 51.8% vs 49.7% against the second.
Griekspoor has the better last 10 (7–3 vs 5–5), while Bonzi has won more of his recent matches (56% vs 50%). Their deciding-set and tiebreak records are almost identical.
Griekspoor's serve and head-to-head make him the favourite. Bonzi's return game should keep it close.
๐ Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Griekspoor | Bonzi |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 50 | 99 |
| Age | 30 | 30 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Head-to-head | 2 | 1 |
| First serves in | 63.5% | 62.5% |
| 1st-serve points won | 72.5% | 70.7% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 51.5% | 51.9% |
| Break points saved | 62.9% | 61.4% |
| Break points converted | 40.0% | 40.9% |
| Return points won (career) | 37% | 39% |
| Tiebreak win % | 56% | 54% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 56% | 55% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 62% | 61% |
Lorenzo Sonego vs Jaume Munar
๐ง Form & Context
Lorenzo Sonego
- ๐ Ranked No. 91 at 31, 2–8 in his last 10.
- ๐ The stronger server: 72.1% on first-serve points and 51.6% on second.
- ๐ Saves 62.9% of break points.
- ๐ Wins 51% of tiebreaks over his career.
- ⚠️ Weak on return (29.6% against the first serve), and has won only 37% of his recent matches.
Jaume Munar
- ๐ Ranked No. 65 at 29, 6–4 in his last 10.
- ๐ Leads the head-to-head 2–1, with both wins on hard courts.
- ๐ The far better returner: 34.5% against the first serve and 51.5% against the second.
- ๐ Has won 56% of his recent matches.
- ⚠️ Wins only 49.1% behind his second serve.
๐ Match Breakdown
Munar is the 1.69 favourite and leads their head-to-head 2–1. He won both their hard-court meetings, in Winston-Salem last year and Cincinnati in 2024.
Sonego is clearly the better server. He wins 72.1% behind his first serve to 68.5% and 51.6% behind his second to 49.1%, and he saves more break points (62.9% vs 59.5%).
Munar is much stronger on return, with 34.5% vs 29.6% against the first serve and 51.5% vs 47.8% against the second.
The form is with Munar: 6–4 in his last 10 against 2–8, and 56% vs 37% of recent matches won.
Sonego's serve suits the indoor conditions. Munar's form, return game and head-to-head make him the favourite.
๐ Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Sonego | Munar |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 91 | 65 |
| Age | 31 | 29 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Head-to-head | 1 | 2 |
| First serves in | 64.9% | 64.8% |
| 1st-serve points won | 72.1% | 68.5% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 51.6% | 49.1% |
| Break points saved | 62.9% | 59.5% |
| Break points converted | 39.9% | 42.0% |
| Return points won (career) | 36% | 41% |
| Tiebreak win % | 51% | 46% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 46% | 48% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 55% | 59% |
Felix Balshaw vs Yannick Hanfmann
๐ง Form & Context
Felix Balshaw
- ๐ Ranked No. 178 at 20, one-handed backhand, 5–5 in his last 10.
- ๐ Has won 71% of his recent matches.
- ๐ The better returner: 35.0% against the first serve, and 43% of break points converted recently.
- ๐ Has won 60% of deciding sets over his career.
- ⚠️ Lands only 57.5% of first serves. Limited data on him at this level.
Yannick Hanfmann
- ๐ Ranked No. 59 at 34, 4–6 in his last 10.
- ๐ฏ Lands 63.9% of first serves and wins 53.0% behind his second.
- ๐ Saves 61.2% of break points.
- ๐ Has won 69% of deciding sets this season.
- ⚠️ Has won only 50% of his recent matches and 46% of tiebreaks over his career.
๐ Match Breakdown
A first meeting. Hanfmann is the 1.47 favourite, ranked more than 100 places higher.
On serve it is close. Balshaw wins slightly more behind his first serve (71.2% vs 70.7%), while Hanfmann lands far more of them (63.9% vs 57.5%), is stronger behind the second (53.0% vs 51.5%) and saves more break points (61.2% vs 59.9%).
Balshaw is the better returner, with 35.0% vs 31.5% against the first serve, and he converts more break points (42.7% vs 39.6%).
Balshaw has the better recent form (71% vs 50% of matches won) and the better tiebreak record (54% vs 46%).
Hanfmann's experience and consistency explain the price. Balshaw's form and return game suggest he can make this close.
๐ Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Balshaw | Hanfmann |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 178 | 59 |
| Age | 20 | 34 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 57.5% | 63.9% |
| 1st-serve points won | 71.2% | 70.7% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 51.5% | 53.0% |
| Break points saved | 59.9% | 61.2% |
| Break points converted | 42.7% | 39.6% |
| Return points won (career) | 41% | 38% |
| Tiebreak win % | 54% | 46% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 60% | 58% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 63% | 59% |
Sebastian Baez vs Damir Dzumhur
๐ง Form & Context
Sebastian Baez
- ๐ Ranked No. 49 at 25, 2–8 in his last 10.
- ๐ Leads the head-to-head 3–1, all on clay.
- ๐ฏ Lands a high 71.4% of first serves.
- ๐ Slightly the better returner: 35.1% against the first serve and 53.5% against the second.
- ⚠️ Wins only 63.7% behind his first serve.
Damir Dzumhur
- ๐ฅ Ranked No. 83 at 34, 7–3 in his last 10.
- ๐ Has won 53% of his recent matches.
- ๐ Wins 54% behind his second serve in recent matches.
- ๐ Has won 58% of deciding sets this season.
- ⚠️ Lands only 65.3% of first serves and saves 57.5% of break points.
๐ Match Breakdown
Dzumhur is the 1.72 favourite despite being ranked lower. Baez leads their head-to-head 3–1, but all four meetings were on clay. Dzumhur won the most recent one, in Madrid last year.
Baez lands far more first serves (71.4% vs 65.3%), and wins slightly more behind his second serve and saves more break points.
On return there is little between them. Baez wins slightly more against both serves and converts slightly more break points (44.5% vs 43.6%).
The difference is form. Dzumhur is 7–3 in his last 10 and Baez is 2–8.
Baez has slightly better numbers across the board. Dzumhur's form explains why he is favourite on this surface.
๐ Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Baez | Dzumhur |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 49 | 83 |
| Age | 25 | 34 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Head-to-head | 3 | 1 |
| First serves in | 71.4% | 65.3% |
| 1st-serve points won | 63.7% | 64.8% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 51.8% | 50.9% |
| Break points saved | 58.7% | 57.5% |
| Break points converted | 44.5% | 43.6% |
| Return points won (career) | 42% | 41% |
| Tiebreak win % | 51% | 51% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 55% | 54% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 62% | 58% |
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo vs Grigor Dimitrov
๐ง Form & Context
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
- ๐ Ranked No. 56 at 22, 6–4 in his last 10.
- ๐ Won their only meeting, 6–4 6–4 in Madrid in April.
- ๐ The far better returner: 36.2% against the first serve and 53.1% against the second.
- ๐ฏ Converts 45.3% of his break points.
- ⚠️ Wins only 64.7% behind his first serve and 39% of tiebreaks.
Grigor Dimitrov
- ๐ Ranked No. 124 at 35, one-handed backhand, 4–6 in his last 10.
- ๐ A huge first serve: 75.3% of points won, and 76% in recent matches.
- ๐ Saves 63.3% of break points.
- ๐ Wins 53% of tiebreaks over his career.
- ⚠️ Weak on return (29.6% against the first serve), and has won only 33% of deciding sets this season.
๐ Match Breakdown
Vallejo is the 1.73 favourite and won their only meeting, 6–4 6–4 on clay in Madrid in April.
This is a clear serve-against-return match-up. Dimitrov wins 75.3% behind his first serve to Vallejo's 64.7%, and saves far more break points (63.3% vs 57.3%).
Vallejo is much stronger on return. He wins 36.2% of points against the first serve to 29.6%, and 53.1% against the second to 49.7%. He also converts far more break points (45.3% vs 38.5%).
Vallejo has the better last 10 (6–4 vs 4–6) and has won far more deciding sets this season (62% vs 33%). Dimitrov has the much better tiebreak record (53% vs 39%).
Indoors, Dimitrov's serve gives him a real chance in a tiebreak-heavy match. Vallejo's return and form make him the favourite.
๐ Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Vallejo | Dimitrov |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 56 | 124 |
| Age | 22 | 35 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Head-to-head | 1 | 0 |
| First serves in | 61.9% | 61.9% |
| 1st-serve points won | 64.7% | 75.3% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 49.6% | 51.5% |
| Break points saved | 57.3% | 63.3% |
| Break points converted | 45.3% | 38.5% |
| Return points won (career) | 43% | 37% |
| Tiebreak win % | 39% | 53% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 58% | 58% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 60% | 61% |
Alex Molcan vs Daniel Altmaier
๐ง Form & Context
Alex Molcan
- ๐ Ranked No. 80 at 28, left-handed, 6–4 in his last 10.
- ๐ Leads the head-to-head 3–0, all this year.
- ๐ The clearly better returner: 34.2% against the first serve and 53.8% against the second.
- ๐ Has won 62% of his recent matches.
- ⚠️ Wins only 67.1% behind his first serve and saves 58.8% of break points.
Daniel Altmaier
- ๐ Ranked No. 60 at 28, one-handed backhand, 5–5 in his last 10.
- ๐ The bigger first serve: 71.6% of points won.
- ๐ Saves 61.4% of break points.
- ๐ Has won 68% of deciding sets this season.
- ⚠️ Has won only 49% of his recent matches.
๐ Match Breakdown
Molcan is the 1.64 favourite and has won all three of their meetings this year, in Munich, at Wimbledon and in Kitzbuhel. Every one of them was close.
Altmaier has the bigger first serve (71.6% vs 67.1%) and saves more break points (61.4% vs 58.8%). Molcan is slightly stronger behind the second serve.
Molcan is the clearly better returner, with 34.2% vs 31.3% against the first serve and 53.8% vs 50.2% against the second. He also converts more break points (44.6% vs 41.5%).
Molcan has the better form (62% vs 49% of recent matches won). Their deciding-set records this season are level.
Molcan's head-to-head, return and form make him the favourite. Altmaier's serve has kept all three of their meetings tight.
๐ Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Molcan | Altmaier |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 80 | 60 |
| Age | 28 | 28 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Head-to-head | 3 | 0 |
| First serves in | 62.8% | 61.5% |
| 1st-serve points won | 67.1% | 71.6% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 51.2% | 50.0% |
| Break points saved | 58.8% | 61.4% |
| Break points converted | 44.6% | 41.5% |
| Return points won (career) | 42% | 39% |
| Tiebreak win % | 58% | 55% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 57% | 57% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 62% | 59% |
Nuno Borges vs Adrian Mannarino
๐ง Form & Context
Nuno Borges
- ๐ Ranked No. 53 at 29, 6–4 in his last 10.
- ๐ Leads the head-to-head 3–0, on three different surfaces.
- ๐ Strong on serve: 71.4% on first-serve points and 63.3% of break points saved.
- ๐ Has won 65% of deciding sets and 64% of best-of-three matches over his career.
- ⚠️ Has won only 38% of deciding sets this season.
Adrian Mannarino
- ๐ฅ Ranked No. 73 at 38, left-handed, 7–3 in his last 10.
- ๐ Wins 70.1% on first-serve points.
- ๐ Has won 60% of deciding sets this season.
- ⚠️ Weak on return: 29.3% against the first serve.
- ⚠️ Lands only 60.3% of first serves and has won 49% of his recent matches.
๐ Match Breakdown
Borges is the 1.53 favourite and has won all three of their meetings: on grass in Mallorca and on clay in Barcelona this year, and on hard courts in Cincinnati in 2024.
Borges has the edge on every serving line. He lands more first serves (64.7% vs 60.3%), wins more behind both serves and saves far more break points (63.3% vs 59.4%).
On return there is little between them, though Borges is slightly better against the first serve (31.5% vs 29.3%).
Mannarino has the better last 10 (7–3 vs 6–4), but Borges has won more of his recent matches (59% vs 49%).
Borges's serve, consistency and perfect head-to-head make him a deserved favourite.
๐ Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Borges | Mannarino |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 53 | 73 |
| Age | 29 | 38 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Head-to-head | 3 | 0 |
| First serves in | 64.7% | 60.3% |
| 1st-serve points won | 71.4% | 70.1% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 52.4% | 51.5% |
| Break points saved | 63.3% | 59.4% |
| Break points converted | 42.2% | 41.8% |
| Return points won (career) | 39% | 38% |
| Tiebreak win % | 49% | 49% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 65% | 53% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 64% | 55% |
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