🎾 WTA Eastbourne – Round 1 Preview Sofia Kenin vs Kimberly Birrell

🎾 WTA Eastbourne – Round 1 Preview

Sofia Kenin vs Kimberly Birrell

Comeback fire meets Aussie grit on the English coast.

🧠 Form & Context

Sofia Kenin
🔄 Bounce-back season: 23–14 overall after a tough 2024, highlighted by a Charleston final and three Top-20 wins (Bencic, Paolini, Azarenka).
🌱 Grass tune-up: qualified in Berlin (d. Andreeva, Tomljanović) before falling to Masarova; 2–1 on lawns this month, 23–14 career.
🎯 Strengths: flat backhand return, court craft, and improved first-serve placement (aces up to 4.3 per match on grass 2025).
❗ Still searching for rhythm: retirement issues in 2022 linger with occasional lapses in footwork during longer exchanges.

Kimberly Birrell
🚀 Consistent volume player: 27–15 in 2025 with a W100 title in Brisbane and WTA QFs in Birmingham & Hertogenbosch.
🌱 Grass comfort: 5–3 this swing, including solid wins over Yuan Yue and Bondár; heavy topspin forehand adapts surprisingly well to low bounce.
🇦🇺 Fitness & grit: saved 13/17 break points in Eastbourne qualifying (d. Volynets, Bondár).
🧗‍♀️ Big-match hurdle: 3–8 vs Top-30 opposition lifetime, often struggling to convert break chances under pressure.

🔍 Match Breakdown

• First-strike execution: Kenin’s win-rate soars when landing 60%+ first serves (89% holds). Below that, she’s vulnerable. Birrell will try to push her into longer exchanges where Kenin’s footwork can fray.
• Shot selection: Kenin will work cross-court to Birrell’s backhand, then attack down the line. Birrell’s topspin forehand and depth under windy conditions could pressure Kenin into early errors.
• Clutch points: Birrell converts just 41% of break points vs Top-50; Kenin saves 63% on grass in 2025. Advantage Kenin in key moments.

🔮 Prediction

Prediction: Kenin in 2 tight sets
Look for a 7–5 or tiebreak opener before she pulls away. Kenin’s experience and cleaner baseline weight should tilt the balance in her favour.

📊 Tale of the Tape

• 2025 W/L: Kenin 23–14 • Birrell 27–15
• Grass Record (2025): Kenin 2–1 • Birrell 5–3
• Career Grass W/L: Kenin 23–14 • Birrell 9–12
• H2H: First meeting