🎾 ATP Mallorca – Round 1 Preview Bernard Tomic vs Rinky Hijikata

🎾 ATP Mallorca – Round 1 Preview

Bernard Tomic vs Rinky Hijikata

Veteran craft meets youthful hustle in this all-Aussie lawn chess match.

🧠 Form & Context

Bernard Tomic
🦘 Veteran Aussie resurfaces: qualifier wins over De Jong & Kovacevic push his 2025 record to 18–16.
🌱 Grass comfort: 61–42 career on the surface, thanks to a low-skidding slice serve and flat backhand redirects.
📉 Ranking way down at No. 248 but flashes of vintage shot-making still appear—especially in quick conditions.
🎢 Volatile focus level; tends to switch off when pressed, yet loves slower Mallorca turf that rewards craft.

Rinky Hijikata
📊 World No. 88, looking to steady a 15–20 season marked by narrow losses to Opelka (Roland Garros) and Evans (’s-Herto).
🚀 Breakout grass run last summer (R16 Mallorca ’24) proved his all-court skill set translates to lawns.
🔄 Recent Challenger semi in Birmingham plus wins over Bolt & Watanuki show upward momentum.
💪 Compact counter-puncher; superb return positioning and quick feet help blunt bigger servers.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Expect contrasting tempos: Tomic slicing, blocking, and pouncing on short balls; Hijikata hugging the baseline, taking balls early, and forcing the elder Aussie to defend in the ad court. First-serve percentage is crucial—Tomic held 89 % of service games in qualifying, but Hijikata breaks 25 % of the time on grass this month.

If rallies extend, Hijikata’s fitness and intensity edge grow. Yet Tomic’s unmatched feel for pace changes can frustrate younger opponents into over-pressing. Key stat: Hijikata wins 53 % of second-serve points on grass, versus Tomic’s 48 %. Whoever protects second serves better likely escapes in two tight sets.

🔮 Prediction

Prediction: Hijikata in 3 sets
Tomic nicks a tiebreak, yet Hijikata’s consistency and physical edge decide the decider.

📊 Tale of the Tape

• 2025 W/L: Tomic 18–16 • Hijikata 15–20
• Grass Record (career): Tomic 61–42 • Hijikata 11–9
• Service Hold % (last 2 weeks): Tomic 89% • Hijikata 80%
• 2nd Serve Points Won (grass 2025): Tomic 48% • Hijikata 53%