🎾 ATP Eastbourne – Round of 16 Preview
Jacob Fearnley vs Flavio Cobolli
British talent Fearnley looks to ride the home wave against Italy's rising star Cobolli in a classic grass-court contrast of styles.
🧠 Form & Context
Jacob Fearnley
🏠 Career-high No. 51 after a strong spring and a Queen’s R16 showing (d. Moutet).
📉 Grass-court learning curve: 2–2 this swing, with a 57% first-serve clip needing improvement.
🔨 Strengths: topspin-heavy forehand, solid net instincts, crowd-fueled energy.
⚖️ Weakness: second-serve vulnerability (43% win rate) and erratic backhand slice under pressure.
Flavio Cobolli
🚀 Cracked Top 25 after a stellar clay stretch (Bucharest & Hamburg titles) and a QF in Halle.
🌱 Promising on grass: 2–1 this year; Eastbourne QF in 2024.
🔋 Match-fit after back-to-back three-setters over Fonseca and Shapovalov in Halle.
🧩 Stat edge: Break-point conversion on grass stands at 46%, nearly double Fearnley’s 24%.
🔍 Match Breakdown
- Serve Battle: Fearnley must hit over 60% first serves to avoid Cobolli pouncing on second balls. Italian wins 73% behind first serve, only 0.5 double faults per set.
- Baseline Strategy: Cobolli looks to strike early with inside-out forehands and change direction down the line; Fearnley aims for looping heavies to pin the Italian backhand.
- Surface IQ: Cobolli’s low, flat game better suits Eastbourne’s slick courts. Fearnley may struggle if balls sit up too high in early exchanges.
- Clutch Factor: Cobolli has better breakpoint conversion; Fearnley saved 78% of break points at Queen’s. Momentum could hinge on early scoreboard swings.
🔮 Prediction
Prediction: Cobolli in 3 sets (6–4, 6–7, 6–3)
Fearnley will feed off the crowd and push this into a dogfight, but Cobolli’s cleaner first-strike tennis and superior point-ending tools give him the edge on grass.
📊 Tale of the Tape
- 2025 Record: Fearnley 18–14 • Cobolli 27–11
- Grass Record (2025): Fearnley 2–2 • Cobolli 2–1
- Break Point Conversion (Grass 2025): Fearnley 24% • Cobolli 46%
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