Ben Shelton vs Adrian Mannarino

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ATP US Open Hard Court Round 3

🧠 Form & Context

Ben Shelton (No. 6, age 22)

• 🇺🇸 Explosive lefty, one of the fastest-rising stars on tour.
• 📊 2025: 37–18 overall, 23–7 on hard.
• 🔥 USO 2025: Straight-sets wins over Buse & Carreño Busta.
• 🏆 Summer: Toronto Masters champion (d. Khachanov in F), Cincinnati QF (l. Zverev).
• 🏟️ US Open: SF in 2023, 3R in 2024. Already 6 Slam second-week runs in 12 appearances.
• 💡 Strengths: Huge serve, fearless aggression, thrives with home crowd behind him.

Adrian Mannarino (No. 77, age 37)

• 🇫🇷 Crafty veteran lefty with a flat, unorthodox style.
• 📊 2025: 30–30 overall, 11–12 on hard.
• 🔥 USO 2025: Def. Griekspoor in straights & Thompson in 4 sets.
• 📈 Revival: 9–3 on North American hard this summer after a brutal slump earlier.
• 🏟️ Slam career: 60th Slam MD, just 5 second-week appearances (5–8 in R3).
• ⚠️ Weakness: Struggles when opponents hit through him — exactly what Shelton did in Toronto.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Head-to-head: Mannarino leads 2–1, but Shelton won their latest in Toronto 2025 (6–2, 6–3).

Shelton will lean on serve + forehand to shorten rallies, denying Mannarino rhythm. Mannarino’s flat redirection thrives in extended exchanges, so Shelton must stay patient when rallies stretch.

Home advantage plays big: Shelton’s energy surges under New York lights, while Mannarino’s calm, understated style may not dampen the crowd.

🔮 Prediction

Mannarino’s guile could create resistance, but Shelton’s firepower and confidence tilt this heavily in the American’s favor. Given his dominant Toronto win over Mannarino just weeks ago, the script feels likely to repeat.

Pick: Shelton in 3 sets — Mannarino will have moments, but Shelton’s athleticism and serve should overwhelm him.

📊 Tale of the Tape (Qualitative)

• Form trend: Shelton surging on hard; Mannarino reviving but still vulnerable.
• Serve edge: Huge to Shelton — lefty bomb sets the tone.
• Baseline control: Shelton’s raw power vs Mannarino’s redirection skills.
• Experience: Mannarino’s 60th Slam vs Shelton’s youthful fire — both matter in different ways.
• Edge: Shelton — confidence, weapons, and crowd lift him higher.

Marketa Vondrousova vs Jasmine Paolini

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WTA US Open Hard Court Round 3

🧠 Form & Context

Marketa Vondrousova (No. 60, age 26)

• 🇨🇿 2023 Wimbledon champion, rebuilding after injury setbacks.
• 📊 2025: 16–8 overall, 8–6 on hard.
• 🔥 USO 2025: Def. Selekhmeteva 6–3, 7–6 & Kessler 7–6, 6–2 — both matches included tiebreaks.
• 🏟️ US Open: QF in 2023, earlier exits in 2020 & 2021.
• 📉 Struggles: Since winning Berlin in June, hadn’t managed back-to-back wins until now.
• 💡 Strength: Lefty variety, spins & angles, thrives when controlling tempo.

Jasmine Paolini (No. 8, age 29)

• 🇮🇹 Career-best form, now a top-10 force.
• 📊 2025: 35–14 overall, 19–8 on hard.
• 🔥 USO 2025: Def. Aiava 6–2, 7–6 & Jovic 6–3, 6–3.
• 🏆 Highlights: Rome champion, Cincinnati finalist (beat Gauff & Kudermetova, lost to Swiatek).
• 🏟️ US Open: R16 in 2024, aiming to go further.
• 📈 Slam record: 5–1 in career Slam R3 matches; strong record of handling this stage.

🔍 Match Breakdown

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Elise Mertens vs Cristina Bucsa

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Mertens vs Bucsa — US Open 3R Preview

WTA US Open Hard Court Round 3

🧠 Form & Context

Elise Mertens (No. 21, age 29)

• 🇧🇪 Tour veteran, rock-solid in early Slam rounds.
• 📊 2025: 34–16 overall, 15–9 on hard.
• 🔥 USO 2025: Def. Ahn 6–1, 6–0 & Sun 6–2, 6–3 — no sets dropped yet.
• 🏟️ US Open: R16 in 4 of last 7 appearances — consistent in New York.
• 🏆 2025: Titles in Hobart & Rosmalen, finalist in Singapore. Wimbledon R16.
• 💡 Strengths: Reliable serve, deep baseline hitting, thrives on composure and steadiness.

Cristina Bucsa (No. 95, age 27)

• 🇪🇸 Baseline grinder showing her best Slam progress to date.
• 📊 2025: 25–25 overall, 15–14 on hard.
• 🔥 USO 2025: Def. Liu 6–2, 6–1 & Eala 6–4, 6–3 — first-ever USO R3.
• 🏟️ Slam history: Also reached R3 at AO 2023 & Wimbledon 2025.
• 📉 Pre-USO: Entered with a 0–3 record in North America.
• ⚠️ Weakness: Struggles vs elite pace — needs long rallies to unsettle opponents.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Head-to-head: 1–1. Bucsa won Beijing 2024 (3 sets); Mertens won Doha 2025 (straights).

Mertens will aim to dictate from the baseline with depth and flat hitting. Bucsa must drag points into grinding exchanges but may lack the finishing power to consistently dent the Belgian.

Mental edge: Mertens — far more experienced at this stage. Context: Bucsa already at her career-best here, while Mertens expects herself to push further.

🔮 Prediction

Bucsa’s defensive resilience might spark competitive spells, but Mertens looks too composed and sharp. The Belgian hasn’t looked troubled yet, and her blend of consistency and weapons should carry her through.

Pick: Mertens in 2 sets — Bucsa could force a tight set, but Mertens’ steadiness makes her the clear favorite.

📊 Tale of the Tape (Qualitative)

• Form trend: Mertens steady & efficient; Bucsa finally finding Slam rhythm.
• Surface fit: Both solid on hard, but Mertens brings more firepower.
• Baseline dynamic: Mertens’ flatter strikes vs Bucsa’s rally grinding.
• Mental game: Clear edge to Mertens with her Slam résumé.
• Edge: Mertens — experience + consistency at this stage.

Elena Rybakina vs Emma Raducanu

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WTA US Open Hard Court Round 3

🧠 Form & Context

Elena Rybakina (No. 10, age 26)

• 🇰🇿 Former Wimbledon champion, established top-10 presence.
• 📊 2025: 43–16 overall, 27–10 on hard courts.
• 🔥 USO 2025: Def. Pareja 6–3, 6–0 & Valentova 6–3, 7–6 (saved 4 set points in 2nd).
• 🏟️ US Open history: Never beyond R3 (losses here in 2021 & 2023).
• 📈 Summer swing: SFs in Washington, Montreal, Cincinnati — strong but draining stretch.
• ⚠️ Watchpoint: Mid-match lapses still pop up; her serve has been her lifeline.

Emma Raducanu (No. 36, age 22)

• 🇬🇧 2021 US Open champion, regaining confidence.
• 📊 2025: 26–17 overall, 15–9 on hard courts.
• 🔥 USO 2025: Def. Shibahara 6–1, 6–2 & Tjen 6–2, 6–1 — her first wins here since lifting the trophy.
• 🏟️ Slam record: 3R at AO & Wimbledon 2025; last Slam second week was Wimbledon 2024.
• 📈 Confidence: Recent wins vs Sakkari & Osaka (Washington), pushed Sabalenka to 3 in Cincinnati.
• ⚠️ Note: Most 2025 wins have come outside the top-20 tier.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Head-to-head: Rybakina leads 1–0 (Sydney 2022, 6–0, 6–1).

Rybakina’s serve + flat baseline power should set the terms, especially on a quicker Flushing surface. Raducanu’s task will be to absorb, redirect, and drag points long enough to test Rybakina’s focus and movement.

If Rybakina serves clean, Raducanu may find it difficult to collect cheap points. The tension lies in Rybakina’s tendency to wobble in third rounds vs Raducanu’s comfort in New York.

🔮 Prediction

Raducanu looks sharper than in recent seasons, and her composure in New York is a factor. But Rybakina’s serve, firepower, and form make her the favorite if she keeps focus intact.

Pick: Rybakina in 2 tight sets (7–5, 6–4 type scoreline). Raducanu can compete, but Rybakina holds the bigger guns.

📊 Tale of the Tape (Qualitative)

• Form trend: Rybakina consistent but occasionally streaky; Raducanu trending upward with confidence wins.
• Serve factor: Rybakina has the decisive edge.
• Baseline dynamic: Rybakina’s flat power vs Raducanu’s redirection skills.
• Intangibles: Rybakina often shaky at R3; Raducanu thrives in New York energy.
• Edge: Rybakina — pedigree and weapons tilt her way.

Luciano Darderi vs Carlos Alcaraz

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Darderi vs Alcaraz — US Open 3R Preview

ATP US Open Hard Court Round 3

🧠 Form & Context

Luciano Darderi (No. 34, age 23)

• 🇮🇹 Argentine-born Italian rising steadily on tour.
• 📊 2025: 33–24 overall (26–12 on clay, 4–7 on hard).
• 🔥 USO 2025: Def. Hijikata (3–0) & Spizzirri (3–1) to reach first US Open R3.
• 🏟️ Slam history: R3 at Wimbledon 2025 (lost to Thompson). Still searching for a maiden second-week run.
• 🏆 Titles 2025: Bastad, Umag, Marrakech — all on clay. All 4 career titles on clay.
• 📉 Hard-court gap: Still raw on this surface. Career 0–2 vs top 10 (0–4 in sets).

Carlos Alcaraz (No. 2, age 22)

• 🇪🇸 2022 US Open champion, already a multi-Slam winner.
• 📊 2025: 56–6 overall, 22–1 on hard.
• 🔥 USO 2025: Def. Opelka & Bellucci in straights, dropping only 13 games total.
• 🏟️ Slam 2025: RG champion, AO QF, Wimbledon finalist. Chasing 2nd Slam of the year.
• 🏆 Titles: Rotterdam, Monte Carlo, Rome, Barcelona, Cincinnati + 2 others (6 in 2025).
• 📈 Confidence: On an 8-match win streak after Cincinnati title (d. Sinner in final).
• 💡 Context: Sharper than in 2024 USO (when he lost early). Locked in this time.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Head-to-head: First meeting.

Darderi will rely on his heavy forehand and power to pressure Alcaraz, but his limited movement and hard-court comfort zone will be tested. Alcaraz’s variety — returns, drop shots, and sudden pace changes — should stretch the Italian outside his strike zones.

Expect Darderi to compete early if he serves well, but sustaining pressure over three sets against Alcaraz’s relentless intensity is unlikely.

🔮 Prediction

This is a clear mismatch. Darderi’s rise and first USO week-two push deserves recognition, but Alcaraz owns every advantage — weapons, experience, movement, and mindset. Unless Alcaraz lets his level dip dramatically, this should be smooth sailing.

Pick: Alcaraz in 3 sets — maybe one tight set, but overall a commanding win.

📊 Tale of the Tape (Qualitative)

• Form trend: Alcaraz near-untouchable; Darderi thriving on clay but out of depth here.
• Surface fit: Alcaraz elite on hard; Darderi still learning the pace & movement.
• Weapons: Alcaraz’s serve + all-court variety vs. Darderi’s heavy forehand.
• Experience: Alcaraz proven Slam closer; Darderi first time in this territory.
• Upset angle: Slim — Darderi needs a lights-out serving day and early scoreboard pressure.

Jiri Lehecka vs Raphael Collignon

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ATP US Open Hard Court Round 3

🧠 Form & Context

Jiri Lehecka (No. 21, age 23)

• 🇨🇿 Czech talent edging closer to consistent Slam breakthroughs.
• 📊 2025: 32–17 overall, 18–8 on hard.
• 🔥 USO 2025: Beat Ćorić (3–1) & Etcheverry (3–1), steadying after slow starts each time.
• 🏟️ Slam record: AO R16 (2023, 2025), Wimbledon SF (2023); never past R3 in New York.
• 📈 Summer hard swing: R16 in Toronto, Cincinnati, Washington — solid volume, no signature scalp.
• ⚠️ Watchpoint: Often drops the opener, relies on mid-match resets and physicality.

Raphael Collignon (No. 107, age 23)

• 🇧🇪 Belgian grinder making a Slam breakthrough.
• 📊 2025: 30–17 overall; 19–10 on clay, just 2–3 on hard before New York.
• 🔥 USO 2025: Def. Galán in straights, then shocked Casper Ruud in 5 sets — career-best win.
• 🏟️ Slam history: Only 2nd Slam main draw (lost to Čilić at Wimbledon 2025).
• 📉 Tour-level: Rarely beyond R1 prior to this week; most success at Challenger level (12 titles).
• ⚠️ Fitness: Coming off a draining five-setter; endurance has been a weak point.

🔍 Match Breakdown

H2H: First meeting.

Match dynamics: Lehecka brings the heavier baseline weight and the bigger serve, plus best-of-five experience. Collignon excels when rallies stretch and patterns repeat, but he may lack the first-strike pop to consistently dislodge Lehecka from the center of the court.

Key angles:
• Starts: Lehecka’s slow openings give Collignon a window to steal Set 1.
• Middle frames: If Lehecka settles, his depth + pace should force shorter exchanges and errors from the Belgian.
• Physical ask: Collignon’s turnaround after the Ruud marathon is a tall order against a bruising ball-striker.

🔮 Prediction

This is Lehecka’s to manage. He owns the power, rhythm control, and Slam seasoning, while Collignon steps into new territory off a huge but taxing upset. Early resistance is live, yet as the pace bites and rallies shorten, the Czech should separate.

Pick: Lehecka in 3 sets — possible tight opener, then scoreboard pressure takes over.

📊 Tale of the Tape (Qualitative)

• Form trend: Lehecka steady on hard; Collignon inspired but unproven on hard at this level.
• Weapons: Lehecka’s serve + forehand pace vs. Collignon’s consistency and counterpunching.
• Physicality: Edge Lehecka — fresher legs; Collignon off a 5-setter.
• Tempo control: Lehecka when exchanges are short-to-medium; Collignon prefers elongated patterns.
• Intangibles: Collignon’s Ruud scalp = belief; Lehecka’s Slam reps = composure in the crunch.

Benjamin Bonzi vs Arthur Rinderknech

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ATP US Open Hard Court Round 3

🧠 Form & Context

Benjamin Bonzi (No. 51, age 29)

• 🇫🇷 Finally showing resilience on the biggest stage.
• 📊 2025 record: 20–20 (14–10 on hard).
• 🔥 USO 2025: Def. Medvedev in R1 (5 sets) and rallied from 0–2 down vs Giron in R2 — 7+ hours on court already.
• 🏟️ Slam history: 3x R3 appearances (never beyond). Losses to de Minaur (2023 AO) and Lehecka (2025 AO).
• 💡 Confidence watch: Two marathon wins might erase nerves, but fatigue is real.

Arthur Rinderknech (No. 82, age 30)

• 🇫🇷 Big-serving Frenchman finding form at the right time.
• 📊 2025 record: 21–28 (5–11 on hard).
• 🔥 USO 2025: Beat Carballés Baena in 4 sets, edged Fokina in 5.
• 🏟️ Slam record: 3R Wimbledon 2025 (lost to Majchrzak), 3R USO 2023 (lost to Rublev). Still 0–2 in R3 matches.
• 📈 Upside: Beat Ruud in Cincinnati; confidence rising despite tough season.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Head-to-Head: Bonzi leads 3–1 (last met Stuttgart 2022, Bonzi won in straights).

Both share similar weaknesses — nerves and closing issues. Bonzi has logged exhausting court time, while Rinderknech has leaned on his serve to get through.

Keys:
• Bonzi: extend rallies, test Rinderknech’s patience.
• Rinderknech: serve big, shorten points, avoid five-set grind.
• Pressure moments: both have histories of blowing leads — composure could decide it.

🔮 Prediction

Expect a scrappy, nervy all-French clash with swings in momentum. Bonzi has the H2H and confidence from toppling Medvedev, but physical fatigue tilts the balance.

Pick: Rinderknech in 4 sets — fresher legs and the serve edge give him a narrow margin. But another five-set drama wouldn’t surprise.