PBTennis · Tennis Form Snapshot · Day 168
Wednesday Form Radar: a 29-point gap, and the market backs the weaker player
Paris, Hong Kong and Chennai reach their second rounds. Today's biggest gap is 29 points: the bookmaker's favourite is rated 37, and his opponent 66.
74 open matches | 11 tournaments | 11 wrong-side alerts | 1 crisis-tier favourite |
Yesterday's board, checked
Every signal is checked against the next day's draw, and the hard days get published too.
Two flagged underdogs won in Luanda, at 2.50 and 3.25. Late results added a 3.00 winner in Chennai with a 24-point form lead.
The hard part: seven form-backed favourites lost, including three in Paris, and wrong-side alerts went 2 of 6.
| D167 signal | Held |
|---|---|
| Form-backed favourites | 8 / 15 |
| Wrong-side alerts | 2 / 6 |
| Late equal-odds form leaders (D166) | 2 / 2 |
| Late form-backed favourites (D165–D166) | 5 / 7 |
Tour second round: one form read open
The prices are public. Our 52-week form read on each match is on the members' board.
| Match | Odds | Form read |
|---|---|---|
| Paris · Medvedev vs Buse | 1.10 / 7.00 | Form agrees with the market |
| Paris · Zverev vs Musetti | 1.40 / 3.00 | 🔒 members |
| Paris · Alcaraz vs Michelsen | 1.17 / 5.00 | 🔒 members |
| Paris · Djokovic vs Hijikata | 1.17 / 5.00 | 🔒 members |
| Paris · Fritz vs Molcan | 1.30 / 3.50 | 🔒 members |
| Paris · Tien vs van Assche | 1.36 / 3.10 | 🔒 members |
| Paris · Struff vs Tirante | 1.53 / 2.50 | 🔒 members |
| Paris · Bellucci vs Rinderknech | 1.73 / 2.10 | 🔒 members |
| Hong Kong · Boulter vs Liu | 1.73 / 2.10 | 🔒 members |
| Hong Kong · Sakkari vs Joint | 1.50 / 2.60 | 🔒 members |
| Chennai · Tjen vs Garland | 1.44 / 2.75 | 🔒 members |
| Chennai · Montgomery vs Vandromme | 1.62 / 2.30 | 🔒 members |
Four of these 11 locked matches are wrong-side alerts, and two more are level form at a short price.
Today's 11 wrong-side alerts
In each of these, the market's favourite is the player in worse form.
| Event | Match | Gap |
|---|---|---|
| Taipei Challenger | 🔒 █████ vs █████ | 29 |
| Taipei Challenger | 🔒 █████ vs █████ | 27 |
| Taipei Challenger | 🔒 █████ vs █████ | 25 |
| Luanda WTA 125 | 🔒 █████ vs █████ | 23 |
| Chennai WTA | 🔒 █████ vs █████ | 20 |
| + 6 more alerts on the members' board | ||
A repeat name. One WTA favourite rated 37 has already been flagged twice this fortnight, winning once and losing once. Today she is 1.44 against a player rated 20 points higher.
38 boards in
| Signal (D130–D167) | Resolved | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Form-backed favourites (favourite wins) | 628 | 73% |
| Level form at short prices (favourite wins) | 230 | 73% |
| Sub-threshold underdogs (underdog advances) | 277 | 39% |
| Wrong-side alerts (underdog advances) | 362 | 37% |
Outcomes come from draw progression. These are small samples and not a betting performance record.
Unlock the full Day 168 board
All 74 matches with form tiers, all 11 wrong-side alerts named, the crisis-tier favourite, form arcs, and the full Excel and DOCX snapshot.
Open on Patreon →Match-by-match analysis, model review and filtered selections are in the Elite membership.
#Tennis #TennisBetting #ATP #WTA #ATPChallenger #WTA125 #TennisForm #RolexParisMasters #ParisMasters #HongKongOpen #ChennaiOpen #Alcaraz #Zverev #Djokovic #Medvedev #PBTennis
18+ only. Form ratings are an information tool, not betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
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