First-round previews from the Costa do Sauipe Challenger (clay), with form, serve and return numbers and a full Tale of the Tape for every open match. Matches marked 🔒 are on today's PBTennis Patreon card. Times are as listed by the tournament schedule and may move with the order of play.
- Tosetto vs Roncadelli
- Misolic vs Varillas 🔒
- Andrade Da Silva vs Midon
- Galan vs Bueno
- Reis Da Silva vs Rodriguez Taverna
- Ribeiro vs Queiroz Miguel
- Miguel vs Ribeiro Marcondes
- Sanchez-Izquierdo vs Ugo Carabelli 🔒
- Cecchinato vs Comesana
- Diaz Acosta vs Pucinelli De Almeida
- Seyboth Wild vs Meligeni Alves
Rafael Tosetto vs Franco Roncadelli
🧠 Form & Context
Rafael Tosetto
- 📉 Ranked No. 817 at 27, 4–6 in his last 10.
- 🚀 The bigger first serve: 65.6% of points won, and 66% in recent matches.
- 🔒 Slightly stronger behind his second serve (48.8%) and saves 54.8% of break points.
- 📈 Has won 55% of his recent matches.
- ⚠️ Weak on return (33.3% against the first serve) and has won only 39% of deciding sets over his career.
Franco Roncadelli
- 📊 Ranked No. 261 at 26, 3–7 in his last 10.
- 🔁 The far better returner: 39.7% against the first serve and 55.3% against the second.
- 🎯 Converts 48.7% of break points, and 52% in recent matches.
- 🏆 Has won 70% of deciding sets this season, and leads the head-to-head 2–0.
- ⚠️ Wins only 59.1% behind his first serve, and 57% in recent matches.
🔍 Match Breakdown
Their third meeting. Roncadelli, a left-hander, won both previous matches on clay, each time from a set down. He is the 1.16 favourite.
Tosetto has the bigger first serve (65.6% vs 59.1%) and is slightly stronger behind the second (48.8% vs 47.4%). Roncadelli lands far more first serves (74.2% vs 62.8%).
The gap is on return. Roncadelli wins 39.7% of points against the first serve to 33.3%, and 55.3% against the second to 51.6%. He also converts far more break points (48.7% vs 43.1%).
Neither comes in with strong form: Tosetto is 4–6 in his last 10 and Roncadelli 3–7, and both have won 55% of their recent matches. Roncadelli has the much better record in deciding sets (70% vs 58% this season and 58% vs 39% over his career).
Roncadelli's return game and the head-to-head support the price.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Tosetto | Roncadelli |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 817 | 261 |
| Age | 27 | 26 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 2 |
| First serves in | 62.8% | 74.2% |
| 1st-serve points won | 65.6% | 59.1% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 48.8% | 47.4% |
| Break points saved | 54.8% | 54.2% |
| Break points converted | 43.1% | 48.7% |
| Return points won (career) | 40% | 46% |
| Tiebreak win % | 47% | 49% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 39% | 58% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 51% | 57% |
Filip Misolic vs Juan Pablo Varillas
🔒 Members-only read
This match is on today's PBTennis Patreon card. The full breakdown – form, serve and return numbers, the Tale of the Tape and our read on the match – is available to our members.
Lucas Andrade Da Silva vs Lautaro Midon
🧠 Form & Context
Lucas Andrade Da Silva
- 🔥 Ranked No. 581 at 21, and has won all of his last 10 matches and 77% of recent matches.
- 🚀 A big first serve: 75.3% of points won, and 77% in recent matches.
- 🔒 Saves 64.7% of break points, and 68% in recent matches.
- 🏆 Has won 79% of deciding sets and 78% of best-of-three matches over his career.
- ⚠️ Weak on return (33.6% against the first serve) and converts only 40.2% of break points. Limited data on him at this level.
Lautaro Midon
- 📈 Ranked No. 185 at 22, 7–3 in his last 10.
- 🔁 The far better returner: 39.4% against the first serve and 55.3% against the second.
- 🎯 Converts 48.8% of his break points.
- 🏆 Has won 64% of deciding sets this season.
- ⚠️ Wins only 64.0% behind his first serve and saves 56.1% of break points.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting between two young players. Midon is the 1.33 favourite and ranked almost 400 places higher.
Andrade Da Silva is far stronger on serve. He wins 75.3% behind his first serve to 64.0%, lands more first serves (65.9% vs 62.3%) and saves far more break points (64.7% vs 56.1%). Behind the second serve they are level.
Midon is far stronger on return. He wins 39.4% of points against the first serve to 33.6%, and 55.3% against the second to 51.5%. He also converts far more break points (48.8% vs 40.2%).
Both come in with good form. Andrade Da Silva has won all of his last 10 against Midon's 7–3, and 77% vs 59% of recent matches. Much of that has come at a lower level.
A classic serve-versus-return contest. Midon's ranking and return game explain the price, but Andrade Da Silva arrives in excellent form.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Andrade Da Silva | Midon |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 581 | 185 |
| Age | 21 | 22 |
| Last 10 | 10–0 | 7–3 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 65.9% | 62.3% |
| 1st-serve points won | 75.3% | 64.0% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 49.5% | 49.2% |
| Break points saved | 64.7% | 56.1% |
| Break points converted | 40.2% | 48.8% |
| Return points won (career) | 40% | 45% |
| Tiebreak win % | 58% | 48% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 79% | 56% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 78% | 64% |
Daniel Elahi Galan vs Gonzalo Bueno
🧠 Form & Context
Daniel Elahi Galan
- 📊 Ranked No. 355 at 30, 4–6 in his last 10.
- 🚀 The stronger server: 69.5% behind his first serve and 50.7% behind his second.
- 🔒 Saves 61.4% of break points.
- 🏆 Won their only previous meeting.
- ⚠️ Weak on return: 31.6% against the first serve and 49.5% against the second.
Gonzalo Bueno
- 📊 Ranked No. 198 at 22, 4–6 in his last 10.
- 🔁 The far better returner: 37.1% against the first serve and 53.6% against the second.
- 🎯 Converts 44.9% of his break points.
- 🏆 Has won 57% of deciding sets over his career.
- ⚠️ Wins only 62.0% behind his first serve and saves 55.7% of break points.
🔍 Match Breakdown
Their second meeting. Galan won the first 7–6, 6–4 on clay at the Punta del Este Challenger in January 2025. The two are priced level at 1.83.
Galan is the stronger server. He wins 69.5% behind his first serve to 62.0%, 50.7% behind his second to 48.4%, and saves far more break points (61.4% vs 55.7%).
Bueno is far stronger on return. He wins 37.1% of points against the first serve to 31.6%, and 53.6% against the second to 49.5%. He also converts more break points (44.9% vs 41.4%).
Both are 4–6 in their last 10. Galan has won slightly more of his recent matches (57% vs 52%), while Bueno has the better career record in deciding sets (57% vs 50%).
Galan's serve against Bueno's return. The level price looks fair.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Galan | Bueno |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 355 | 198 |
| Age | 30 | 22 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Head-to-head | 1 | 0 |
| First serves in | 62.4% | 64.4% |
| 1st-serve points won | 69.5% | 62.0% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 50.7% | 48.4% |
| Break points saved | 61.4% | 55.7% |
| Break points converted | 41.4% | 44.9% |
| Return points won (career) | 39% | 43% |
| Tiebreak win % | 54% | 54% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 50% | 57% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 55% | 55% |
Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna
🧠 Form & Context
Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva
- 🔥 Ranked No. 177 at 26, 8–2 in his last 10.
- 🔁 Slightly the better returner: 34.9% against the first serve and 51.9% against the second.
- 🎯 Converts 44.1% of break points, and 46% in recent matches.
- 🏆 Has won 56% of his career tiebreaks.
- ⚠️ Has won 48% of deciding sets this season.
Santiago Rodriguez Taverna
- 📈 Ranked No. 423 at 27, 7–3 in his last 10.
- 🚀 Slightly the bigger first serve: 66.5% of points won, and 70% in recent matches.
- 🔒 Saves 59.9% of break points.
- 🏆 Has won 75% of deciding sets this season, and won their only meeting.
- ⚠️ Converts only 41.2% of break points, and 37% in recent matches.
🔍 Match Breakdown
Their second meeting. Rodriguez Taverna came from a set down to win the first, at this same event in October 2025. Reis Da Silva is the 1.36 favourite.
On serve there is very little between them. Rodriguez Taverna wins slightly more behind both serves (66.5% vs 65.8% and 49.6% vs 49.3%) and saves more break points (59.9% vs 58.0%). Reis Da Silva lands more first serves (63.7% vs 61.7%).
Reis Da Silva is slightly better on return, with 34.9% vs 34.4% against the first serve and 51.9% vs 50.9% against the second, and converts more break points (44.1% vs 41.2%).
Both come in with good form: Reis Da Silva is 8–2 in his last 10 and Rodriguez Taverna 7–3, with almost identical recent match-win rates (58% vs 57%). Rodriguez Taverna has the far better record in deciding sets (75% vs 48% this season).
This looks closer than the price. Reis Da Silva's return game and form give him a slight edge, and the head-to-head goes the other way.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Reis Da Silva | Rodriguez Taverna |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 177 | 423 |
| Age | 26 | 27 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 1 |
| First serves in | 63.7% | 61.7% |
| 1st-serve points won | 65.8% | 66.5% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 49.3% | 49.6% |
| Break points saved | 58.0% | 59.9% |
| Break points converted | 44.1% | 41.2% |
| Return points won (career) | 41% | 40% |
| Tiebreak win % | 56% | 56% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 46% | 61% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 55% | 58% |
Eduardo Ribeiro vs Luis Queiroz Miguel
🧠 Form & Context
Eduardo Ribeiro
- 📊 Ranked No. 360 at 28, 5–5 in his last 10.
- 🚀 Strong behind his second serve: 51.0% of points won.
- 🔒 Saves 57.6% of break points and converts 43.2%.
- 🏆 Has won 58% of deciding sets and 58% of best-of-three matches over his career.
- ⚠️ Has won only 45% of his recent matches and 39% of deciding sets this season.
Luis Queiroz Miguel
- 🔥 Ranked No. 547 at 17, 7–3 in his last 10 and winning 67% of recent matches.
- 🚀 The bigger first serve: 67.0% of points won, and 73% in recent matches.
- 🔁 The better returner against the first serve: 37.8%.
- 🎯 Converts 44% of break points in recent matches.
- ⚠️ Weak behind his second serve (45.1%) and saves only 50.4% of break points. Has won 25% of deciding sets over his career. Very little data on him at this level.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting between a 28-year-old and a 17-year-old. Queiroz Miguel is the 1.40 favourite despite being ranked almost 190 places lower.
Queiroz Miguel has the bigger first serve (67.0% vs 65.1%), but Ribeiro lands more first serves (62.7% vs 59.3%), is far stronger behind the second (51.0% vs 45.1%) and saves far more break points (57.6% vs 50.4%).
On return, Queiroz Miguel is better against the first serve (37.8% vs 35.1%) and Ribeiro against the second (50.7% vs 49.5%). Ribeiro converts more break points (43.2% vs 40.8%).
The form is with Queiroz Miguel: 7–3 in his last 10 against 5–5, and 67% vs 45% of recent matches won. Ribeiro has the far better record in tight finishes, with 58% vs 25% of deciding sets over his career.
Queiroz Miguel's form explains the price. Ribeiro's second serve and experience could make this close.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Ribeiro | Queiroz Miguel |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 360 | 547 |
| Age | 28 | 17 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 62.7% | 59.3% |
| 1st-serve points won | 65.1% | 67.0% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 51.0% | 45.1% |
| Break points saved | 57.6% | 50.4% |
| Break points converted | 43.2% | 40.8% |
| Return points won (career) | 41% | 42% |
| Tiebreak win % | 48% | 50% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 58% | 25% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 58% | 44% |
Luis Felipe Miguel vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes
🧠 Form & Context
Luis Felipe Miguel
- 🔥 Currently without a ranking at 22, 6–4 in his last 10 and winning 71% of recent matches.
- 🔁 The better returner: 36.9% against the first serve and 55.3% against the second.
- 🎯 Converts 49.7% of his break points and saves 62.4%.
- 🏆 Has won 80% of deciding sets this season and 60% of his career tiebreaks.
- ⚠️ Very little data on him at this level.
Igor Ribeiro Marcondes
- 📊 Ranked No. 279 at 29, 5–5 in his last 10.
- 🚀 Slightly the bigger first serve: 66.6% of points won.
- 🎯 Lands 65.0% of first serves.
- 🏆 Has won 67% of deciding sets this season and 63% of best-of-three matches over his career.
- ⚠️ Saves 57.4% of break points and converts 44.5%, both below Miguel's numbers.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting. Ribeiro Marcondes, a left-hander, is the 1.28 favourite.
On serve they are close. Ribeiro Marcondes is slightly better behind the first serve (66.6% vs 65.4%) and lands slightly more first serves. Miguel is slightly better behind the second (52.2% vs 51.3%) and saves far more break points (62.4% vs 57.4%).
Miguel is the better returner, with 36.9% vs 35.3% against the first serve and 55.3% vs 52.1% against the second. He also converts far more break points (49.7% vs 44.5%).
The form is with Miguel: 6–4 in his last 10 against 5–5, and 71% vs 57% of recent matches won. He has also won more deciding sets this season (80% vs 67%).
Miguel's numbers are strong, but they come from very little data. Ribeiro Marcondes's experience explains the price.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Miguel | Ribeiro Marcondes |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | – | 279 |
| Age | 22 | 29 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 64.0% | 65.0% |
| 1st-serve points won | 65.4% | 66.6% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 52.2% | 51.3% |
| Break points saved | 62.4% | 57.4% |
| Break points converted | 49.7% | 44.5% |
| Return points won (career) | 44% | 42% |
| Tiebreak win % | 60% | 51% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 80% | 57% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 62% | 63% |
Nikolas Sanchez-Izquierdo vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli
🔒 Members-only read
This match is on today's PBTennis Patreon card. The full breakdown – form, serve and return numbers, the Tale of the Tape and our read on the match – is available to our members.
Marco Cecchinato vs Francisco Comesana
🧠 Form & Context
Marco Cecchinato
- 📊 Ranked No. 183 at 34, 4–6 in his last 10 but winning 58% of recent matches.
- 🚀 Stronger behind both serves: 68.3% on the first and 51.5% on the second.
- 🔒 Saves 59.8% of break points.
- 🏆 Won their only previous meeting, and has won 54% of his career tiebreaks.
- ⚠️ Weak on return: 31.9% against the first serve, and converts only 41.3% of break points.
Francisco Comesana
- 📊 Ranked No. 135 at 26, 5–5 in his last 10.
- 🔁 The better returner: 35.6% against the first serve and 51.5% against the second.
- 🎯 Lands 66.0% of first serves and converts 43.2% of break points.
- 🏆 Has won 62% of his best-of-three matches over his career.
- ⚠️ Has won only 52% of his recent matches and 35% of deciding sets this season.
🔍 Match Breakdown
Their second meeting. Cecchinato won the first 7–6, 6–2 on clay at the Sassuolo Challenger in June 2024. Comesana is the 1.33 favourite.
On serve the two are close. Cecchinato wins slightly more behind both serves (68.3% vs 67.6% and 51.5% vs 49.8%) and saves more break points (59.8% vs 57.3%). Comesana lands slightly more first serves (66.0% vs 65.1%).
Comesana is the better returner, with 35.6% vs 31.9% against the first serve and 51.5% vs 50.2% against the second, and converts more break points (43.2% vs 41.3%).
Comesana has the slightly better last 10 (5–5 vs 4–6), but Cecchinato has won more of his recent matches (58% vs 52%) and more deciding sets this season (42% vs 35%).
With two strong servers, expect plenty of holds. Comesana's return game gives him the edge, but this looks closer than 1.33.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Cecchinato | Comesana |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 183 | 135 |
| Age | 34 | 26 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Head-to-head | 1 | 0 |
| First serves in | 65.1% | 66.0% |
| 1st-serve points won | 68.3% | 67.6% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 51.5% | 49.8% |
| Break points saved | 59.8% | 57.3% |
| Break points converted | 41.3% | 43.2% |
| Return points won (career) | 39% | 41% |
| Tiebreak win % | 54% | 49% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 52% | 55% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 57% | 62% |
Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida
🧠 Form & Context
Facundo Diaz Acosta
- 📈 Ranked No. 72 at 25, 6–4 in his last 10 and winning 73% of recent matches.
- 🚀 The bigger first serve: 68.6% of points won.
- 🔒 Saves 59.5% of break points.
- 🏆 Has won 70% of deciding sets this season.
- ⚠️ Lands only 59.8% of first serves, and converts 43.6% of break points.
Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida
- 🔥 Ranked No. 197 at 25, 8–2 in his last 10 and winning 71% of recent matches.
- 🎯 Lands 65.2% of first serves and wins 51.6% behind his second.
- 🔁 Slightly the better returner against the first serve (36.7%), and converts 45.2% of break points.
- 🔒 Has saved 63% of break points in recent matches.
- ⚠️ Has won 44% of deciding sets over his career.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting between two 25-year-olds. Diaz Acosta, a left-hander, is the 1.61 favourite.
On serve they are very close. Diaz Acosta wins more behind his first serve (68.6% vs 66.4%) and saves slightly more break points (59.5% vs 58.8%). Pucinelli De Almeida lands far more first serves (65.2% vs 59.8%) and is level behind the second.
On return there is also very little in it. Pucinelli De Almeida is slightly better against the first serve (36.7% vs 35.6%) and Diaz Acosta against the second (52.8% vs 51.7%). Pucinelli De Almeida converts more break points (45.2% vs 43.6%).
Both come in with good form. Pucinelli De Almeida is 8–2 in his last 10 against 6–4, while Diaz Acosta has won slightly more of his recent matches (73% vs 71%). Diaz Acosta has the better record in deciding sets.
An evenly matched contest on the numbers. Diaz Acosta's ranking explains the price.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Diaz Acosta | Pucinelli De Almeida |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 72 | 197 |
| Age | 25 | 25 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 59.8% | 65.2% |
| 1st-serve points won | 68.6% | 66.4% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 51.2% | 51.6% |
| Break points saved | 59.5% | 58.8% |
| Break points converted | 43.6% | 45.2% |
| Return points won (career) | 42% | 42% |
| Tiebreak win % | 50% | 49% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 55% | 44% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 63% | 61% |
Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Felipe Meligeni Alves
🧠 Form & Context
Thiago Seyboth Wild
- 🔥 Ranked No. 109 at 26, 9–1 in his last 10 and winning 76% of recent matches.
- 🚀 The bigger first serve: 70.2% of points won, and 74% in recent matches.
- 🔒 Saves 61.1% of break points and wins 51.3% behind his second serve.
- 🏆 Leads the head-to-head 2–1, and won their most recent meeting last month.
- ⚠️ Weak on return (32.4% against the first serve) and has won only 44% of deciding sets this season.
Felipe Meligeni Alves
- 📈 Ranked No. 348 at 28, 7–3 in his last 10 and winning 72% of recent matches.
- 🎯 Lands 67.2% of first serves and saves 61.4% of break points (73% in recent matches).
- 🔁 Slightly the better returner, and converts 43.0% of break points.
- 🏆 Has won 59% of his career tiebreaks and 58% of deciding sets this season.
- ⚠️ Wins 66.5% behind his first serve, less than Seyboth Wild.
🔍 Match Breakdown
Their fourth meeting. Seyboth Wild leads 2–1, all on clay, and won the most recent 6–1, 6–4 at the Antofagasta Challenger in October. He is the 1.30 favourite.
Seyboth Wild has the bigger first serve (70.2% vs 66.5%), while Meligeni Alves lands far more first serves (67.2% vs 61.5%). Behind the second serve and on break points saved they are almost level.
Neither is a strong returner. Meligeni Alves is slightly better against both serves (32.9% vs 32.4% and 51.2% vs 50.0%) and converts more break points (43.0% vs 41.3%).
Both come in with strong form. Seyboth Wild is 9–1 in his last 10 and Meligeni Alves 7–3, with 76% vs 72% of recent matches won. Meligeni Alves has the better record in tiebreaks and deciding sets.
Expect plenty of holds. Seyboth Wild's first serve and form explain the price, but tiebreaks could keep Meligeni Alves in it.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Seyboth Wild | Meligeni Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 109 | 348 |
| Age | 26 | 28 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 7–3 |
| Head-to-head | 2 | 1 |
| First serves in | 61.5% | 67.2% |
| 1st-serve points won | 70.2% | 66.5% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 51.3% | 51.0% |
| Break points saved | 61.1% | 61.4% |
| Break points converted | 41.3% | 43.0% |
| Return points won (career) | 39% | 40% |
| Tiebreak win % | 49% | 59% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 45% | 52% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 57% | 60% |
No comments:
Post a Comment