PBTennis · Tennis Form Snapshot · Day 161
Wednesday Form Radar: three favourites the form doesn't back
Guangzhou has three lower-rated favourites who have already beaten the form read once this week. Today's biggest gap is 29 points, with the underdog at 2.38.
76 open matches | 12 tournaments | 11 wrong-side alerts | 3 crisis-tier favourites |
Yesterday's board, checked
Every signal is checked against the next day's draw, and we publish the bad days too.
Jasika won at 2.75 and Bigun at 2.20, both as wrong-side underdogs. A late result from Monday: Hernandez beat a lower-rated favourite at 6.50.
The hard part: wrong-side alerts went 2 of 9 and sub-threshold underdogs 0 of 5. Form-backed favourites still went 10 of 15.
| D160 signal | Held |
|---|---|
| Form-backed favourites | 10 / 15 |
| Wrong-side alerts | 2 / 9 |
| Sub-threshold underdogs | 0 / 5 |
| Crisis-tier favourites (favourite lost) | 1 / 1 |
| Equal odds, form gap | 1 / 1 |
Tour main draws: one form read open
The prices are public. Our 52-week form read on each match is on the members' board.
| Match | Odds | Form read |
|---|---|---|
| Vienna · De Minaur vs Tien | 1.91 / 1.91 | Near-level form at equal prices |
| Basel · Djokovic vs Humbert | 1.40 / 3.00 | 🔒 members |
| Vienna · Medvedev vs Merida Aguilar | 1.20 / 4.50 | 🔒 members |
| Vienna · Mensik vs Mannarino | 1.25 / 4.00 | 🔒 members |
| Vienna · Musetti vs Tiafoe | 1.84 / 1.96 | 🔒 members |
| Vienna · Basilashvili vs Rodionov | 1.62 / 2.30 | 🔒 members |
| Basel · Fritz vs Hijikata | 1.10 / 7.00 | 🔒 members |
| Basel · Ruud vs Borges | 1.44 / 2.75 | 🔒 members |
| Basel · Hurkacz vs Rune | 1.50 / 2.63 | 🔒 members |
| Tokyo · Osaka vs Pohankova | 1.14 / 5.50 | 🔒 members |
| Tokyo · Joint vs Bucsa | 1.73 / 2.10 | 🔒 members |
| Guangzhou · Yastremska vs Han Shi | 1.57 / 2.38 | 🔒 members |
| Guangzhou · Tjen vs Dart | 1.40 / 2.90 | 🔒 members |
| Guangzhou · Badosa vs Kraus | 1.44 / 2.75 | 🔒 members |
| Guangzhou · Siniakova vs Tararudee | 1.50 / 2.63 | 🔒 members |
Five of these 14 locked matches are wrong-side alerts. The board names them.
Today's 11 wrong-side alerts
In each of these, the market's favourite is the player in worse form.
| Event | Match | Gap |
|---|---|---|
| Guangzhou WTA | 🔒 █████ vs █████ | 29 |
| Sioux Falls Challenger | 🔒 █████ vs █████ | 26 |
| Guangzhou WTA | 🔒 █████ vs █████ | 24 |
| Guangzhou WTA | 🔒 █████ vs █████ | 17 |
| Guangzhou WTA | 🔒 █████ vs █████ | 13 |
| + 6 more alerts on the members' board | ||
A pattern worth knowing. Three Guangzhou favourites have each already won as the lower-rated player this week. One is priced at 1.57 against an opponent rated 29 points higher. Will the market be right again, or will the form finally catch up?
31 boards in
| Signal (D130–D160) | Resolved | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Level form at short prices (favourite wins) | 183 | 74% |
| Form-backed favourites (favourite wins) | 493 | 73% |
| Sub-threshold underdogs (underdog advances) | 225 | 40% |
| Wrong-side alerts (underdog advances) | 294 | 35% |
Outcomes come from draw progression. These are small samples and not a betting performance record.
Unlock the full Day 161 board
All 76 matches with form tiers, all 11 wrong-side alerts named, the three crisis-tier favourites, form arcs, and the full Excel and DOCX snapshot.
Open on Patreon →Match-by-match analysis, model review and filtered selections are in the Elite membership.
#Tennis #TennisBetting #ATP #WTA #ATPChallenger #WTA125 #TennisForm #ViennaOpen #SwissIndoors #Vienna #Basel #Tokyo #Guangzhou #Djokovic #Medvedev #Fritz #Osaka #PBTennis
18+ only. Form ratings are an information tool, not betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
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