Second-round previews from the Ningbo Challenger (hard), with form, serve and return numbers and a full Tale of the Tape for every match. Times are as listed by the tournament schedule and may move with the order of play.
Yuta Shimizu vs Yu Hsiou Hsu
🧠 Form & Context
Yuta Shimizu
- 📊 Ranked No. 404 at 27, left-handed, 4–6 in his last 10, after beating Poljicak in the first round.
- ⚔️ Won their most recent meeting, 7–5 3–6 6–1 in Yokkaichi in March.
- 🔁 Wins 42% of return points and converts 44.8% of break chances.
- 🏆 Wins 56% of tiebreaks.
- ⚠️ Trails the head-to-head 2–5.
Yu Hsiou Hsu
- 📈 Ranked No. 330 at 27, 6–4 in his last 10, after beating Keegan Smith in the first round.
- ⚔️ Leads the head-to-head 5–2, including indoors in Kobe last November.
- 🎾 Lands 64.4% of first serves and wins 52.3% behind his second.
- 📊 62% career record in best-of-three.
- ⚠️ Has won only 44% of deciding sets this season.
🔍 Match Breakdown
An eighth meeting between two players who know each other well. Hsu leads 5–2, but Shimizu won the most recent one in Yokkaichi in March. Hsu is the favourite at 1.56.
Hsu has the slightly steadier serve: more first serves in (64.4% vs 61.9%) and a stronger second serve (52.3% vs 50%). They are level on break points saved.
Shimizu is slightly the better returner – 42% vs 41% of return points – and converts more of his break chances.
In tight moments they are almost level: 56% vs 55% in tiebreaks and identical 55% career deciding-set records.
Hsu has the head-to-head and the steadier serve; Shimizu has the recent meeting and the slightly better return. A close one.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Shimizu | Hsu |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 404 | 330 |
| Age | 27 | 27 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Head-to-head | 2 | 5 |
| First serves in | 61.9% | 64.4% |
| 1st-serve points won | 67.9% | 68.6% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 50.0% | 52.3% |
| Break points saved | 59.2% | 59.2% |
| Break points converted | 44.8% | 42.5% |
| Return points won (career) | 42% | 41% |
| Tiebreak win % | 56% | 55% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 55% | 55% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 60% | 62% |
Kaichi Uchida vs Harold Mayot
🧠 Form & Context
Kaichi Uchida
- 📉 Ranked No. 420 at 32, 2–8 in his last 10, but fresh from an upset win over Milic.
- 🚀 Wins 70.4% behind his first serve.
- 🔒 Saves 60.3% of break points.
- 🏆 Wins 50% of tiebreaks.
- ⚠️ Has won only 11% of recent matches before this week.
Harold Mayot
- 📊 Ranked No. 233 at 24, 6–4 in his last 10, after beating Tianhui Zhang in the first round.
- 🎾 Lands 61.6% of first serves and wins 50.2% behind his second.
- 🔒 Saves 61.2% of break points.
- 🏆 Has won 65% of deciding sets this season.
- ⚠️ Wins only 43% of tiebreaks.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting. Uchida pulled off an upset in the first round, but Mayot is still a heavy favourite at 1.08.
On serve the numbers are close: Uchida wins slightly more behind his first serve (70.4% vs 69.8%), while Mayot lands more first serves and is stronger on the second.
Mayot is marginally the better returner (39% vs 38% of return points).
Uchida has the better tiebreak record (50% vs 43%), but Mayot has won 65% of his deciding sets this season against 38%.
Mayot has the ranking and the form. At 1.08, there is nothing to play for at the price.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Uchida | Mayot |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 420 | 233 |
| Age | 32 | 24 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 58.8% | 61.6% |
| 1st-serve points won | 70.4% | 69.8% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 49.2% | 50.2% |
| Break points saved | 60.3% | 61.2% |
| Break points converted | 41.7% | 41.6% |
| Return points won (career) | 38% | 39% |
| Tiebreak win % | 50% | 43% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 49% | 52% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 51% | 56% |
Hiroki Moriya vs Mert Alkaya
🧠 Form & Context
Hiroki Moriya
- 📊 Ranked No. 482 at 36, 5–5 in his last 10, after beating McCabe in the first round.
- 🏆 Has won 65% of deciding sets this season and 55% over his career.
- 🔒 Saves 57.1% of break points.
- 🏆 Wins 52% of tiebreaks.
- ⚠️ Only 66.3% won behind his first serve.
Mert Alkaya
- 📊 Ranked No. 327 at 26, 5–5 in his last 10, after beating Te in the first round.
- 🔁 The better returner: 42% of return points won and 44.9% of break points converted.
- 🏆 Wins 56% of tiebreaks, with a 58% best-of-three record.
- 🎾 Wins 50.1% behind his second serve.
- ⚠️ Saves only 56.1% of break points.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting between two first-round winners, both 5–5 in their last 10. Alkaya is the favourite at 1.55.
On serve they are almost identical: both land about 59% of first serves and win 66.3% behind them.
Alkaya is the better returner – 42% vs 40% of return points – and converts more of his break chances (44.9% vs 42%).
Alkaya wins more tiebreaks (56% vs 52%); the veteran Moriya has the better deciding-set record (55% vs 49%).
Alkaya has the return and the ranking; Moriya has the experience. Closer than the price suggests.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Moriya | Alkaya |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 482 | 327 |
| Age | 36 | 26 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 59.2% | 59.1% |
| 1st-serve points won | 66.3% | 66.3% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 49.4% | 50.1% |
| Break points saved | 57.1% | 56.1% |
| Break points converted | 42.0% | 44.9% |
| Return points won (career) | 40% | 42% |
| Tiebreak win % | 52% | 56% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 55% | 49% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 53% | 58% |
Charles Broom vs Yaroslav Demin
🧠 Form & Context
Charles Broom
- 📈 Ranked No. 268 at 28, 6–4 in his last 10, after beating Santillan in the first round.
- 🚀 The stronger server: 70.5% on first-serve points and 50.9% on second.
- 🔒 Has saved 66% of break points recently.
- 📊 63% career record in best-of-three.
- 🔁 Wins 41% of return points.
Yaroslav Demin
- 📊 Ranked No. 596 at 21, 5–5 in his last 10, after an upset of Overbeck in the first round.
- 🎾 Lands 63.6% of first serves.
- 🎯 Converts 43.4% of break points.
- 🏆 Has won 61% of deciding sets this season.
- ⚠️ Weak behind the second serve: 46.8% won.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting. Broom, who avenged an April loss to Santillan in the first round, is the favourite at 1.40.
Broom has the clearly stronger serve: 70.5% of first-serve points against 66%, and 50.9% on second against 46.8%.
Broom is also slightly the better returner (41% vs 40% of return points), though Demin converts more of his break chances.
They are level on tiebreaks at 52%, while Broom has the better career deciding-set record (54% vs 49%).
Broom has the serve, the form and the ranking. Demin will need his return to make an impact.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Broom | Demin |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 268 | 596 |
| Age | 28 | 21 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 62.0% | 63.6% |
| 1st-serve points won | 70.5% | 66.0% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 50.9% | 46.8% |
| Break points saved | 60.6% | 58.1% |
| Break points converted | 41.2% | 43.4% |
| Return points won (career) | 41% | 40% |
| Tiebreak win % | 52% | 52% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 54% | 49% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 63% | 51% |
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