Quarter-final previews from the Sioux Falls Challenger (indoor hard), with form, serve and return numbers and a full Tale of the Tape for every open match. Matches marked 🔒 are on today's PBTennis Patreon card. Times are as listed by the tournament schedule and may move with the order of play.
Mees Rottgering vs Aidan Mayo
🧠 Form & Context
Mees Rottgering
- 📊 Ranked No. 316 at 19, left-handed, 6–4 in his last 10, through after beating Bigun.
- 🔁 The clearly better returner: 33.4% against the first serve and 54.4% against the second.
- 🎯 Converts 46.7% of his break points.
- 🏆 Has won 80% of deciding sets this season.
- ⚠️ Lands only 58.1% of first serves. Limited data on him at this level.
Aidan Mayo
- 📊 Ranked No. 321 at 23, 6–4 in his last 10, with wins over Barton and Kasnikowski this week.
- 🚀 The bigger first serve: 70.7% of points won, and 77% in recent matches.
- 🔒 Saves 60.3% of break points, and 65% in recent matches.
- 🏆 Wins 52% of tiebreaks over his career.
- ⚠️ Converts only 39.7% of break points and has won 36% of deciding sets this season.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting between two players ranked five places apart. Rottgering is the 1.61 favourite, and both are 6–4 in their last 10.
Mayo has the stronger serving numbers. He wins more behind his first serve (70.7% vs 68.7%), slightly more behind his second (50.7% vs 50.1%), and saves more break points (60.3% vs 59.4%).
Rottgering is much the better returner. He wins 33.4% of points against the first serve to 31.4%, and 54.4% against the second to 50.9%. He also converts far more of his break chances (46.7% vs 39.7%).
Under pressure the gap is big: Rottgering has won 80% of deciding sets this season to Mayo's 36%.
Rottgering's return and his record in third sets make him the favourite. Mayo's serve should keep most sets close.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Rottgering | Mayo |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 316 | 321 |
| Age | 19 | 23 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 58.1% | 57.1% |
| 1st-serve points won | 68.7% | 70.7% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 50.1% | 50.7% |
| Break points saved | 59.4% | 60.3% |
| Break points converted | 46.7% | 39.7% |
| Return points won (career) | 42% | 39% |
| Tiebreak win % | 56% | 52% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 53% | 47% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 59% | 53% |
Dylan Dietrich vs Jeff Wolf
🧠 Form & Context
Dylan Dietrich
- 🔥 Ranked No. 254 at 22, 9–1 in his last 10, through after beating Brooksby.
- 📈 Has won 80% of his recent matches.
- 🔁 The better returner: 33.8% against the first serve and 54.0% against the second.
- 🏆 Wins 62% of tiebreaks and 64% of best-of-three matches over his career.
- ⚠️ Very limited data on him at this level.
Jeff Wolf
- 📊 Ranked No. 210 at 27, 5–5 in his last 10, with wins over Shelbayh and Milavsky this week.
- 🚀 A big first serve: 73.8% of points won.
- 🔒 Saves 60.1% of break points.
- 🏆 Has won 67% of deciding sets this season.
- ⚠️ Lands only 57.2% of first serves and wins 49% of tiebreaks.
🔍 Match Breakdown
Dietrich is the 1.50 favourite and won their only meeting, 7–6 6–3 at the Columbus Challenger last month.
Wolf has the bigger serve. He wins 73.8% behind his first serve to 69.4% and 50.8% behind his second to 49.4%. On break points saved they are level (about 60%).
Dietrich is the better returner, with 33.8% vs 30.6% against the first serve and 54.0% vs 50.8% against the second. He also lands more first serves (61.0% vs 57.2%).
The form is firmly with Dietrich: he is 9–1 in his last 10 and has won 80% of his recent matches, compared with 5–5 and 68%. He also has the much better tiebreak record (62% vs 49%).
Expect a lot of holds. Dietrich's form, return and tiebreak record make him a fair favourite, though we have very little data on him at this level.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Dietrich | Wolf |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 254 | 210 |
| Age | 22 | 27 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 5–5 |
| Head-to-head | 1 | 0 |
| First serves in | 61.0% | 57.2% |
| 1st-serve points won | 69.4% | 73.8% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 49.4% | 50.8% |
| Break points saved | 59.6% | 60.1% |
| Break points converted | 40.6% | 41.5% |
| Return points won (career) | 41% | 38% |
| Tiebreak win % | 62% | 49% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 54% | 55% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 64% | 58% |
Max Hans Rehberg vs Sebastian Dominko
🧠 Form & Context
Max Hans Rehberg
- 🔥 Ranked No. 264 at 23, 8–2 in his last 10, through after beating Kozlov.
- 🎯 Lands 67.4% of first serves.
- 🚀 Strong behind his second serve: 51.9% of points won.
- 🔁 The better returner against the second serve (51.4%), and converts 44.2% of break points.
- ⚠️ Has won only 49% of deciding sets over his career.
Sebastian Dominko
- 🔥 Ranked No. 554 at 23, left-handed, 8–2 in his last 10, through after beating Royer.
- 🚀 A big first serve: 73.2% of points won, and 77% in recent matches.
- 🏆 Wins 64% of tiebreaks and has won 86% of deciding sets this season.
- 📈 Has won 77% of his recent matches.
- ⚠️ Weak behind his second serve: 46.7% of points won. Very limited data on him at this level.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting between two players in red-hot form – both are 8–2 in their last 10. Rehberg is the 1.40 favourite.
Expect plenty of holds. Dominko has the bigger first serve (73.2% vs 68.3%), but Rehberg lands far more of them (67.4% vs 61.4%) and is much stronger behind the second serve (51.9% vs 46.7%). On break points saved they are level at 60.6%.
On return there is little between them against the first serve. Rehberg is better against the second (51.4% vs 48.6%) and converts more break points (44.2% vs 41.3%).
Dominko has the edge in tight finishes: 64% vs 53% of tiebreaks over his career, and 86% vs 50% of deciding sets this season.
Rehberg's consistency and second serve make him the favourite. Dominko, who has just knocked out Royer, has the serve and the tiebreak record to make this very close.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Rehberg | Dominko |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 264 | 554 |
| Age | 23 | 23 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 8–2 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 67.4% | 61.4% |
| 1st-serve points won | 68.3% | 73.2% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 51.9% | 46.7% |
| Break points saved | 60.6% | 60.6% |
| Break points converted | 44.2% | 41.3% |
| Return points won (career) | 39% | 38% |
| Tiebreak win % | 53% | 64% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 49% | 63% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 57% | 61% |
Liam Draxl vs Darwin Blanch
🔒 Members-only read
This match is on today's PBTennis Patreon card. The full breakdown – form, serve and return numbers, the Tale of the Tape and our read on the match – is available to our members.
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