Quarter-final previews from the Ningbo Challenger (hard), with form, serve and return numbers and a full Tale of the Tape for every open match. Matches marked 🔒 are on today's PBTennis Patreon card. Times are as listed by the tournament schedule and may move with the order of play.
Yaroslav Demin vs Harold Mayot
🧠 Form & Context
Yaroslav Demin
- 🔥 Ranked No. 596 at 21, 7–3 in his last 10, through after beating Broom.
- 🔁 The slightly better returner: 33.8% against the first serve and 43.4% of break points converted.
- 🎯 Lands 63.6% of first serves.
- 📏 Limited data on him at this level.
- ⚠️ Wins only 46.8% behind his second serve.
Harold Mayot
- 🔥 Ranked No. 233 at 24, 7–3 in his last 10, through after beating Uchida.
- 🚀 The stronger server: 69.8% on first-serve points and 50.2% on second.
- 🔒 Saves 61.2% of break points.
- 🏆 Has won 65% of deciding sets this season.
- ⚠️ Wins only 43% of tiebreaks over his career.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting. Mayot is the 1.33 favourite. Both players are 7–3 in their last 10.
Mayot is clearly the better server. He wins 69.8% behind his first serve to 66.0% and 50.2% behind his second to 46.8%, and he saves more break points (61.2% vs 58.1%).
Demin is slightly better on return (33.8% vs 31.8% against the first serve) and converts more of his break chances (43.4% vs 41.6%).
Mayot has won more of his recent matches (58% vs 48%), but Demin has the better tiebreak record (52% vs 43%).
Mayot's serve and experience make him a fair favourite. If the sets go to tiebreaks, Demin has a real chance.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Demin | Mayot |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 596 | 233 |
| Age | 21 | 24 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 63.6% | 61.6% |
| 1st-serve points won | 66.0% | 69.8% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 46.8% | 50.2% |
| Break points saved | 58.1% | 61.2% |
| Break points converted | 43.4% | 41.6% |
| Return points won (career) | 40% | 39% |
| Tiebreak win % | 52% | 43% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 49% | 52% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 51% | 56% |
Mert Alkaya vs Yu Hsiou Hsu
🧠 Form & Context
Mert Alkaya
- 📊 Ranked No. 327 at 26, 5–5 in his last 10, through after beating Moriya.
- 🔁 The slightly better returner: 35.7% against the first serve and 44.9% of break points converted.
- 🔒 Has saved 63% of break points in recent matches.
- 🏆 Wins 57% of tiebreaks over his career.
- ⚠️ Lands only 59.1% of first serves and saves just 56.3% of break points overall.
Yu Hsiou Hsu
- 📊 Ranked No. 330 at 27, 6–4 in his last 10, through after beating Shimizu.
- 🚀 The stronger server: 68.6% on first-serve points and 52.3% on second.
- 🎯 Lands 64.4% of first serves and saves 59.2% of break points.
- 🏆 Has won 55% of deciding sets and 62% of best-of-three matches over his career.
- ⚠️ Has won only 47% of his recent matches.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting between two players ranked three places apart. Hsu is the 1.53 favourite.
Hsu has the better serving numbers across the board. He lands more first serves (64.4% vs 59.1%), wins more behind both serves (68.6% vs 66.3% and 52.3% vs 50.1%) and saves more break points (59.2% vs 56.3%).
Alkaya is slightly the better returner, with 35.7% vs 34.1% against the first serve, and converts more break points (44.9% vs 42.5%).
Recent form is level: Alkaya has won 49% of his recent matches and Hsu 47%. Hsu has the better career record in deciding sets (55% vs 49%).
Hsu's serve makes him the favourite. With so little between them in the rankings and the recent form, this looks closer than the price suggests.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Alkaya | Hsu |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 327 | 330 |
| Age | 26 | 27 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 59.1% | 64.4% |
| 1st-serve points won | 66.3% | 68.6% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 50.1% | 52.3% |
| Break points saved | 56.3% | 59.2% |
| Break points converted | 44.9% | 42.5% |
| Return points won (career) | 42% | 41% |
| Tiebreak win % | 57% | 55% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 49% | 55% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 58% | 62% |
Jake Delaney vs Liam Broady
🔒 Members-only read
This match is on today's PBTennis Patreon card. The full breakdown – form, serve and return numbers, the Tale of the Tape and our read on the match – is available to our members.
Jie Cui vs Petr Bar Biryukov
🧠 Form & Context
Jie Cui
- 📊 Ranked No. 393 at 28, 6–4 in his last 10, through after beating Schoolkate.
- 🔁 The clearly better returner: 31.8% against the first serve and 53.0% against the second.
- 🎯 Converts 44.0% of his break points.
- 🎯 Lands 63.4% of first serves.
- ⚠️ Has won only 21% of deciding sets this season and 45% of tiebreaks over his career.
Petr Bar Biryukov
- 📊 Ranked No. 331 at 24, left-handed, 4–6 in his last 10, through after beating Sun.
- 🚀 A big first serve: 74.5% of points won, and 76% in recent matches.
- 🔒 Saves 62.7% of break points, and 67% in recent matches.
- 🏆 Wins 62% of tiebreaks and 57% of deciding sets over his career.
- ⚠️ Weak on return: 28.7% against the first serve and 46.5% against the second.
🔍 Match Breakdown
Cui is the 1.36 favourite and won their only meeting, 6–4 6–2 in Astana in August.
This is a serve-against-return match-up. Bar Biryukov has much the bigger first serve (74.5% vs 67.3%) and saves more break points (62.7% vs 57.2%).
Cui is far stronger on return, with 31.8% vs 28.7% against the first serve and 53.0% vs 46.5% against the second. He also converts more break points (44.0% vs 40.5%).
Cui has the better last 10 (6–4 vs 4–6), but Bar Biryukov has the much better record in tight finishes: 62% vs 45% in tiebreaks and 59% vs 21% in deciding sets this season.
Cui's return game and his win in Astana make him the favourite. If Bar Biryukov's serve holds up and the sets go to tiebreaks, the edge shifts towards him.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Cui | Bar Biryukov |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 393 | 331 |
| Age | 28 | 24 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Head-to-head | 1 | 0 |
| First serves in | 63.4% | 60.4% |
| 1st-serve points won | 67.3% | 74.5% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 51.1% | 50.3% |
| Break points saved | 57.2% | 62.7% |
| Break points converted | 44.0% | 40.5% |
| Return points won (career) | 40% | 35% |
| Tiebreak win % | 45% | 62% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 47% | 57% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 56% | 60% |
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