PBTennis · Tennis Form Snapshot · Day 158
Finals Sunday: 8 matches where the odds and the form disagree
Ten finals, eight new qualifying draws and 101 open matches. On eight of them the bookmaker's underdog is the player in better form. Today's biggest gap is 33 points.
101 open matches |
22 tournaments |
8 wrong-side alerts |
10 level-form matches |
Yesterday's board, checked
Every signal is checked against the next day's draw. Saturday's semi-final board gave us the clearest result of the week in Lisbon.
Lisbon: both wrong-side alerts held. Gulin won as a 2.75 underdog against a favourite rated 27 points below him. Ritschard won at 2.00. The two flagged underdogs now meet in today's final.
Osaka: Krueger won as a 2.30 underdog while holding the form edge, and she is in today's final.
| D157 signal | Held |
|---|---|
| Wrong-side alerts (underdog advances) | 4 / 8 |
| Sub-threshold underdogs | 5 / 8 |
| Form-backed favourites | 6 / 9 |
Five tour finals, one form read each
The prices are public. Our 52-week form read on each final is on the members' board.
| Final | Odds | Form read |
|---|---|---|
| Lyon · Fritz vs Musetti | 1.44 / 2.75 | Level form, short price |
| Ningbo · Rybakina vs Fernandez | 1.33 / 3.40 | 🔒 members |
| Almaty · Medvedev vs Basilashvili | 1.20 / 4.50 | 🔒 members |
| Osaka · Krueger vs Siniakova | 1.73 / 2.10 | 🔒 members |
| Brussels · Griekspoor vs Struff | 1.73 / 2.10 | 🔒 members |
Two Challenger finals also have the underdog slightly ahead on form. Both are named on the board.
Today's 8 wrong-side alerts
In each of these, the market's favourite is the player in worse form.
| Event | Match | Gap |
|---|---|---|
| Brest Challenger Q | 🔒 █████ vs █████ | 33 |
| Vienna ATP | 🔒 █████ vs █████ | 26 |
| Brest Challenger Q | 🔒 █████ vs █████ | 21 |
| Basel ATP | 🔒 █████ vs █████ | 15 |
| Guangzhou WTA | 🔒 █████ vs █████ | 15 |
| + 3 more alerts on the members' board | ||
Two names to watch. In Tokyo, one player is a lower-rated favourite for the third board in a row. In Vienna, the favourite in the 26-point match rates 40 and the underdog rates 66, yet the prices are almost level (1.80 vs 1.91).
28 boards in
| Signal (D130–D157) | Resolved | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Level form at short prices (favourite wins) | 168 | 76% |
| Form-backed favourites (favourite wins) | 451 | 73% |
| Sub-threshold underdogs (underdog advances) | 208 | 40% |
| Wrong-side alerts (underdog advances) | 269 | 36% |
Outcomes come from draw progression. These are small samples and not a betting performance record.
Unlock the full Day 158 board
All 101 matches with form tiers, all 8 wrong-side alerts named, form arcs, and the full Excel and DOCX snapshot.
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Match-by-match analysis, model review and filtered selections are in the Elite membership.
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