🎾 WTA Madrid: Coco Gauff vs Iga Swiatek

🎾 WTA Madrid: Coco Gauff vs Iga Swiatek – Match Preview

🧠 Form & Context

🇵🇱 Iga Swiatek

• 🫣 Shaky campaign: Three of her four Madrid matches have gone to three sets, including a rare 0-6 set loss to Madison Keys in the quarterfinals—her first since 2021.
• 💪 Clutch recovery: Bounced back in that match to win 0-6, 6-3, 6-2, reminding everyone of her mental resilience.
• 🎯 Madrid record: Defending champion and 2023 runner-up; stands 2-0 in Madrid semifinals.
• 🛑 Recent semis struggle: Has lost her last five semifinal appearances since Roland-Garros 2024.
• 🌱 On clay: 29–2 on clay since the start of 2024, and still the gold standard despite some visible vulnerability.

🇺🇸 Coco Gauff

• 🔁 Turnaround story: Opened her Madrid campaign with a 0-6 set loss to Yastremska—has since won eight straight sets.
• 🔥 Breakthrough in Madrid: Reaches her first Madrid semifinal after previously failing to go beyond the last 16.
• 💪 Clay credentials: Has reached five clay-court semifinals (2–3 W/L) and was the 2022 Roland-Garros runner-up.
• ⏳ Slow 2025 start: This is her first semifinal of the season, following a title-laden finish to 2024 (Beijing, WTA Finals).

🔍 Match Breakdown

This is a matchup steeped in history, yet the dynamics are beginning to shift. Iga Swiatek once dominated Coco Gauff, winning their first seven meetings without dropping a set. But Coco has won two of their last three, including in Riyadh and at the United Cup.

That said, clay is Iga’s kingdom. Their most recent clay meeting at Roland-Garros 2024 was a clear-cut 6-2, 6-4 win for the Pole. Her heavy topspin forehand and relentless movement make her nearly untouchable on this surface—when she’s on form.

However, cracks have shown in Madrid. Swiatek has dropped sets to three different opponents, and the 0-6 opener to Keys exposed how vulnerable she can be against pure power hitters—a category Gauff comfortably belongs to.

Gauff has looked increasingly confident throughout the week. Her serve has held up (more than 80% first-serve points won vs. Andreeva), and her forehand—often her liability—isn’t leaking errors like before. Still, her ability to hang with Swiatek in clay-court rallies remains in question, especially when Iga locks into rhythm.

🔮 Prediction

Despite Gauff’s improved form and two recent wins in the rivalry, this is Swiatek’s surface, Swiatek’s venue, and Swiatek’s moment to end her semifinal drought. If she avoids a slow start and gets depth on Gauff’s forehand wing, she should have the edge.

🧩 Prediction: Iga Swiatek in 3 sets – expect Coco to push hard, but Swiatek to summon her champion’s mettle and clay-court pedigree when it matters.