🎾 WTA Madrid: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elina Svitolina

🎾 WTA Madrid: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elina Svitolina – Match Preview

🧠 Form & Context

🇧🇾 Aryna Sabalenka

• ⚔️ Battle-tested: Needed over 2.5 hours and saved 13 of 16 break points to edge Marta Kostyuk in a tense double-tiebreak quarterfinal.
• 🎯 Madrid masterclass: Has reached four finals in the last five editions of the Madrid Open (Champion in 2021 & 2023, runner-up in 2024).
• 🏆 Title machine: Already owns 5 finals this season (Brisbane, Australian Open, Indian Wells, Miami, Stuttgart) and boasts a 29–5 W/L record in 2025.
• 🌱 Only clay titles: Both career clay titles came here in Madrid, a testament to how well her power game translates to this high-altitude clay.

🇺🇦 Elina Svitolina

• 🧱 Semifinal streak: Has won 11 consecutive clay matches this season (Rouen title, 4 wins in Madrid), dropping zero sets and saving all 7 break points in Madrid.
• 📈 Madrid breakthrough: Reaches her first semifinal above WTA 250 level since 2019 and her first-ever in Madrid, after 9 prior early exits.
• 🔥 Steady climb: Since returning from maternity leave, she's made 3 finals on clay and firmly re-established herself as a top-20 player.
• 🎯 Quality scalps: Defeated former finalist Elena Rybakina and Maria Sakkari en route, albeit most opponents ranked outside the top 50.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Aryna Sabalenka may not have been flawless this fortnight, but she has demonstrated a critical edge: survival in high-pressure moments. Saving set points in both sets vs. Kostyuk, she showed the composure of a two-time major champion and a three-time Madrid finalist.

Svitolina, on the other hand, arrives with immaculate rhythm on clay and zero lost sets since the start of April. Her backhand is finding corners, her serve is consistent, and her shot tolerance is back to pre-maternity levels. Yet, she’s played no top-5 opponent in this run and now faces the most relentless hitter on tour.

Madrid’s fast clay favors Sabalenka’s attacking style, helping neutralize Svitolina’s counterpunching. However, if the Belarusian struggles physically after that draining quarterfinal or her forehand misfires early, the Ukrainian has more than enough consistency and match sharpness to capitalize.

🔮 Prediction

Sabalenka’s power and Madrid pedigree are undeniable, but Svitolina’s clay-court form and tactical discipline make this a potential upset spot.

🧩 Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka in 3 sets – the top seed survives another grinder, but not without a serious test from one of the WTA's most determined veterans.