Jessica Pegula vs Anastasija Sevastova

WTA Montreal Preview: Jessica Pegula vs Anastasija Sevastova

🧠 Form & Context

Jessica Pegula

• 🏆 Three-peat in sight: Has never lost before the semifinals in four appearances here—Montreal 2023 and Toronto 2024 titles prove she thrives in Canada.
• 💪 Hard-court dominance: Enters with a 21–7 record on hard courts in 2025. Showed grit by battling back to beat Sakkari 7–5, 6–4 after a rough start.
• 🔥 In-season form: Eight finals in the last 12 months, including deep Slam runs in New York and Cincinnati—confidence is sky-high heading into late summer.

Anastasija Sevastova

• 🤕 Remarkable return: Coming off ACL surgery and maternity leave, she’s found form again with two impressive comeback wins this week—her best stretch since 2018.
• ⏳ Rust vs. rhythm: Only two wins on hard courts in 2025, both coming this week. The wear from back-to-back three-setters could impact her legs and stamina.
• 🎯 Craft over power: Known for her slices, drop shots, and angles—she’ll need to disrupt Pegula’s rhythm and stretch points to stay competitive.

🔍 Match Breakdown

This matchup contrasts Pegula’s hard-hitting, relentless baseline pressure with Sevastova’s elegant point construction and tactical variety. But it may come down to physicality—Pegula is fresher, more confident, and better suited to the hard court rhythm.

If Pegula lands her first serve consistently (65%+), she will control most rallies and force Sevastova to defend deep behind the baseline. While Sevastova can mix things up to disrupt rhythm, she lacks a consistent kill shot to end points on her terms.

The American’s mental toughness and superior conditioning—especially after Sevastova’s extended early rounds—make her a heavy favorite to break through any resistance over time.

🔮 Prediction

Prediction: Jessica Pegula in 2 sets (6–3, 6–2) – Expect some early resistance from the Latvian, but Pegula’s form, shot tolerance, and ability to seize big points should carry her through comfortably.