Andrey Rublev vs Lorenzo Sonego

ATP Toronto Preview: Andrey Rublev vs Lorenzo Sonego

🧠 Form & Context

Andrey Rublev

• 📉 Fragile form: The Russian’s North American summer has been rocky—losses to Kovacevic, Tien, and Bergs raised concerns about both form and focus.
• ✅ Confidence booster: Looked sharper in a straight-sets win over a misfiring Hugo Gaston—his cleanest performance in recent weeks.
• 🇨🇦 Happy memories: Reached the final at this event in 2024 (then Montreal), including a standout win over Sinner.
• 🏆 Title drought: Hasn’t lifted a trophy since Doha in February. Momentum has gradually declined since then.
• ⚠️ Under pressure: With rankings slipping, Rublev needs a strong showing here to reset his season trajectory.

Lorenzo Sonego

• 🔓 Broke the lock: Finally got a win in Toronto by defeating Bu Yunchaokete—his first tour-level hard-court victory of the swing.
• 🔁 Consistency issues: Has failed to win back-to-back ATP matches all year (0–6 in second-round outings).
• 🎯 Big-match underdog: Struggling mightily against elite players, with 15 consecutive losses to top-20 opponents. Last such win was vs. Humbert at 2024 Roland Garros.
• 💥 Slam bursts: Still capable of firepower on big stages—QF in Melbourne and R16 at Wimbledon prove he can rise when the spotlight hits.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Rublev leads their head-to-head 3–2, including a victory in their only hard-court meeting at the 2020 Vienna final. He also took their most recent clash in Metz.

But 2025 Rublev is not the same confident force. He’s shown vulnerability in tight spots and sometimes appears mentally absent mid-match. The routine win over Gaston won’t silence the critics just yet.

Sonego brings his usual high-spirited underdog energy and tends to loosen up in these kinds of matches. While he’s not been able to put back-to-back wins together this year, his power game can click when least expected. The slightly slower Toronto surface may give him a bit more time to work the points and defend.

🔮 Prediction

Prediction: Andrey Rublev in 3 sets – Sonego has enough weapons to make this tricky, especially if Rublev’s level drops at any point. But the Russian still carries the heavier artillery and more consistent baseline depth. Expect flashes from the Italian, but Rublev should hold firm—eventually.