PBTennis · Tennis Form Snapshot · Day 165
Finals Sunday: an underdog the form has backed three times running
Eleven finals today, and in two of them the bookmaker's underdog is the player in better form. One of them has won three straight with the better form, twice as the underdog. Next week also opens: Paris qualifying, plus 8 new Challenger and WTA 125 draws.
96 open matches | 23 tournaments | 7 wrong-side alerts | 10/11 favourites held yesterday |
Yesterday's board, checked
Every signal is checked against the next day's draw.
Form-backed favourites went 10 of 11 on semi-final day. The only miss was a 3.00 upset in Vienna.
Wrong-side alerts went 2 of 3. One flagged underdog won at 2.50 and plays in today's final; another won at 2.38 and is now the favourite in his.
| D164 signal | Held |
|---|---|
| Form-backed favourites | 10 / 11 |
| Wrong-side alerts | 2 / 3 |
| Near-even odds, major gap | 2 / 4 |
| Equal odds, form gap | 0 / 2 |
Eleven finals: one form read open
The prices are public. Our 52-week form read on each final is on the members' board.
| Match | Odds | Form read |
|---|---|---|
| Vienna · Alcaraz vs De Minaur | 1.25 / 4.00 | Form agrees with the market |
| Basel · Lehecka vs Vacherot | 1.44 / 2.75 | 🔒 members |
| Tokyo · Shnaider vs Fernandez | 1.62 / 2.30 | 🔒 members |
| Guangzhou · Tagger vs Dart | 1.36 / 3.10 | 🔒 members |
| Seoul · Wong vs Atmane | 1.83 / 1.83 | 🔒 members |
| Brest · Damm vs Kouame | 1.50 / 2.50 | 🔒 members |
| Ningbo · Demin vs Bar Biryukov | 1.53 / 2.38 | 🔒 members |
| Sioux Falls · Dietrich vs Draxl | 1.40 / 2.75 | 🔒 members |
| Guayaquil · Dellien vs Aguilar Cardozo | 1.53 / 2.38 | 🔒 members |
| Courmayeur · Charaeva vs Noha Akugue | 1.44 / 2.63 | 🔒 members |
| Curitiba · Grabher vs Tubello | 1.40 / 2.75 | 🔒 members |
Among the 10 locked finals: two wrong-side alerts, one equal-odds final with a 15-point form gap, and one more where the underdog is slightly ahead on form.
Today's 7 wrong-side alerts
In each of these, the market's favourite is the player in worse form.
| Event | Match | Gap |
|---|---|---|
| Paris ATP (qualifying) | 🔒 █████ vs █████ | 23 |
| Bratislava Challenger | 🔒 █████ vs █████ | 19 |
| Paris ATP (qualifying) | 🔒 █████ vs █████ | 14 |
| Chennai WTA (qualifying) | 🔒 █████ vs █████ | 13 |
| Guayaquil Challenger (final) | 🔒 █████ vs █████ | 12 |
| + 2 more alerts on the members' board, one of them a final | ||
The run to watch. One Challenger finalist has won three straight matches this week with the better form, twice as a flagged underdog at 2.10. Today he is a 2.38 underdog again, with a 12-point form lead.
35 boards in
| Signal (D130–D164) | Resolved | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Level form at short prices (favourite wins) | 210 | 73% |
| Form-backed favourites (favourite wins) | 583 | 73% |
| Sub-threshold underdogs (underdog advances) | 256 | 39% |
| Wrong-side alerts (underdog advances) | 336 | 38% |
Outcomes come from draw progression. These are small samples and not a betting performance record.
Unlock the full Day 165 board
All 96 matches with form tiers, all 7 wrong-side alerts named, the form read on every final, and the full Excel and DOCX snapshot.
Open on Patreon →Match-by-match analysis, model review and filtered selections are in the Elite membership.
#Tennis #TennisBetting #ATP #WTA #ATPChallenger #WTA125 #TennisForm #ViennaOpen #SwissIndoors #RolexParisMasters #Vienna #Basel #Tokyo #Guangzhou #Alcaraz #DeMinaur #Shnaider #PBTennis
18+ only. Form ratings are an information tool, not betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
No comments:
Post a Comment